How often do dreams come true?

Rarely would be my suggestion.

Indeed, life is littered with dreams being dashed, an itinerary of disappointment.

Following a summer of transfer activity, I was confident that this would be our season and that Luton Town would get promotion back to the EFL Championship, a dream that now looks to be a forlorn one.

Following the loss, at the Stadium MK, against the MK Dons, our resident mathematician, Tony Pedley, mailed a wonderful few paragraphs that summed up perfectly our current predicament when it comes to achieving that promotion dream.

Take it away Tony:

Another good result from Jack Wilshere!

He seems to be in thrall to Barcelona / Arsenal with their tippy-tappy or possession being king. What he doesn’t seem to realise is that Barcelona do it rapidly catching the opposition and being through their defence before they realise. Whereas Arsenals endless run of 1-0 wins was because they had a rock-hard tight defence.

WE HAVE NEITHER.

When he changes tactics, we have less control of the ball but attack quicker and tend to win games.

The only target worthwhile is automatic promotion. The play-offs are little more than a lottery which in the end comes down to a bit of luck one way or the other or a refereeing decision.

Remember 75% of teams in the Play Offs get nothing apart from a little more cash.

If you get disconsolate or p*ss*d off stop reading now.

What are our chances?

Season to date: 11 points from 9 games….56 points

Last 6 games:  7 points from 6 games…54 points 

Either show we should just about avoid relegation.

Automatic promotion target say 90 points. Not enough last year but most seasons would get us through. Play-offs last year 76 points.

For 90 points we need 79 more in 37 games = 2.14 per game

For 76 points we need 65 in 37 games =1.75 per game

Looking at the possibilities:

20 Wins / 17 Draws / 0 Losses = 77 points = fail

21 Wins / 16 Draws / 1 Loss = 79 points = just

other possibilities:

22 Wins / 13 Draws / 2 Losses

23 Wins / 10 Draws / 4 Losses

24 Wins / 7 Draws / 6 Losses

ALL GET US THERE.

We need to win 60% of the remaining games and not lose 1

It means we finish with 24 wins in total which only the top two managed last year.

Frankly I think the only hope is getting into the lottery. I hope I am wrong

Clearly a daunting task ahead of us otherwise our ambition to climb out of this league will enter another season.

COYH

Luton Town v Barnsley?

Luton Town to Win!

Barnsley to Win!

A Draw!