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South Africa put top spot in the World Rugby rankings on the line in Turin this weekend in the Nations Championship, while France risk an eight-year low in Lyon.
International rugby returns this weekend with action across the Nations Championship and Nations Cup, with both competitions resuming after the July fixtures.
With the help of World Rugby, we delve into the weekend’s ranking permutations with plenty of movement possible in the top 10.
The Springboks collide with Italy at the home of Juventus in Saturday’s first Nations Championship match with Rassie Erasmus’ charges heading into the fixture knowing that defeat will see them surrender top spot if the loss is paired with an All Blacks victory or draw at Murrayfield.
Due to the 14.79-point differential between the teams, South Africa cannot improve their rating with a victory over the Azzurri. The Springboks cannot fall lower than second if they suffer just a second-ever defeat to Italy – who could jump two places into ninth if they win, moving ahead of Wales and a beaten Fiji. The Azzurri will remain in 11th position in defeat even if Japan beat Wales in Cardiff with the latter two nations simply swapping positions.
Dave Rennie’s All Blacks will return to the top of the rankings if a Springboks’ defeat in Turin is paired with New Zealand avoiding defeat at Murrayfield. The All Blacks have never lost to Scotland but if that changes on Saturday, New Zealand cannot drop below their current second-place ranking. If Gregor Townsend’s charges create history, they can equal their all-time high of fifth if England draw with Australia on Sunday. The Scots could rise as high as third in the rankings, but that would require Ireland, France and England all to lose.
Elsewhere, France will replace Ireland in third if they beat Fiji and Argentina are victorious in Dublin. However, Les Bleus could fall as low as eighth for the first time since October 2019 if beaten, depending on the margin and other results. Ireland will drop two spots into fifth in defeat if France and England both win.
Australia could also end the weekend in third if they can cause an upset on Sunday and other results go in their favour – this would be the Wallabies’ highest position since November 2021.
A win by more than 15 points for Argentina in Dublin paired with an England loss to Australia by a similar margin could see England drop as many as three places to eight. Wales can move up one place to ninth if they win by more than 15 points and Fiji lose to France.
Georgia will remain in 13th position on the World Rugby rankings regardless of what happens in the World Rugby Nations Cup this weekend. Lelos cannot improve their rating with victory over Canada given the 11.65 point difference. Canada could return to the top 20 for the first time since February 2019 if they beat Georgia, depending on other results over the weekend.
Portugal and USA cannot rise from 14th or 15th if both are victorious over Chile and Hong Kong China respectively, as they can’t catch Georgia. Chile will climb to a new high of 14th if they beat Portugal, making them the higher-ranked of the two nations.
World Cup qualifiers, Hong Kong China, will fall a place to 25th if they lose and Zimbabwe beat Samoa, which would make them the lowest-ranked team in the competition. However, they Asian side could also equal their all-time high of 21st in victory.
Romania will return to the top 20 for the first time since June 2025 if they beat Tonga by more than 15 points, which would also make them the higher-ranked of the two nations. Tonga will climb above a beaten Uruguay into 18th if they are victorious in Bucharest and could go as high as 14th.
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Defeat will see Samoa slip out of the top 20 for the first time since the rankings were introduced in October 2003 if Romania also beat Tonga.
Spain will climb one place to 16th if they beat Uruguay and Chile lose in Portugal. Los Leones could go 15th if they win by more than 15 points.
Uruguay could drop as low as 20th if they suffer a heavy defeat and other results go against them. Spain could also find themselves in this position if beaten.
Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 88.49, Argentina 81.83
Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 88.70, Argentina 81.62
Draw – Ireland 87.49, Argentina 82.83
Argentina win by 15 points or less – Ireland 86.49, Argentina 83.83
Argentina win by more than 15 points – Ireland 85.70, Argentina 84.62
Italy win by 15 points or less – Italy 78.30, South Africa 91.09
Italy win by more than 15 points – Italy 79.30, South Africa 90.09
Draw – Italy 77.30, South Africa 92.09
South Africa win by 15 points or less – Italy 76.30, South Africa 93.09 (No change)
South Africa win by more than 15 points – Italy 76.30, South Africa 93.09 (No change)
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 86.53, New Zealand 90.52
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 87.40, New Zealand 89.64
Draw – Scotland 85.53, New Zealand 91.52
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – Scotland 84.53, New Zealand 92.52
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – Scotland 84.40, New Zealand 92.65
Wales win by 15 points or less – Wales 77.37, Japan 75.25
Wales win by more than 15 points – Wales 77.86, Japan 74.76
Draw – Wales 76.37, Japan 76.25
Japan win by 15 points or less – Wales 75.37, Japan 77.25
Japan win by more than 15 points – Wales 74.86, Japan 77.76
France win by 15 points or less – France 87.47, Fiji 77.81
France win by more than 15 points – France 87.49, Fiji 77.79
Draw – France 86.47, Fiji 78.81
Fiji win by 15 points or less – France 85.47, Fiji 79.81
Fiji win by more than 15 points – France 84.49, Fiji 80.79
England win by 15 points or less – England 86.56, Australia 83.55
England win by more than 15 points – England 86.99, Australia 83.12
Draw – England 85.56, Australia 84.55
Australia win by 15 points or less – England 84.56, Australia 85.55
Australia win by more than 15 points – England 83.99, Australia 86.12
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