Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where it’s beginning to feel like we’ve reached the point of no return for Lincoln Riley. USC’s 24-7 loss to Wisconsin on Saturday was objectively one of the worst of Riley’s tenure as a head coach.

That it came after a bye week only made it a more damning indictment of Riley and the culture he’s built at USC.

The reality is, another loss over USC’s next four games would eliminate the Trojans from College Football Playoff contention for the fifth straight season under Riley. And with three top-10 teams still on the schedule, it feels all but inevitable that USC will fall short of expectations once again this season, a half decade into Riley’s tenure as the Trojans coach.

USC fans, safe to say, are fed up. Many of them, it seems, want Riley fired right now. But the Trojans are technically still in the race, even if they’re just barely limping along, and aside from the brief hit of dopamine and schadenfreude that such a swift firing might provide, cutting ties with a coach before the end of the season is almost always a dangerous idea. It makes even less sense, in this case, for USC — a school that should know by now how sideways a midseason move can go.

Each of the last three Trojan football coaches preceding Riley were fired midseason. And the ripple effects of those firings, you could argue, ended up setting USC back even further.

When USC fired Lane Kiffin in the middle of the night at LAX after a 3-2 start to the season, then-athletic director Pat Haden not only turned the Trojans into a national punchline, but also painted himself into a corner. Interim coach Ed Orgeron ended up turning the season around and earning the endorsement of USC’s entire locker room. (Which you can hear more about on this week’s new episode of House of Troy.) But Haden had no intention of hiring Orgeron, and the decision to move on ended up being a disaster, on multiple levels.

With Steve Sarkisian, Haden had no choice but to cut ties. But this time, he actually did end up hiring the interim coach, Clay Helton, after seeing how Helton had shepherded the program through a difficult season. And of course, that hire ended up being a huge failure.

I’ll never forget the chaos of USC’s 2021 season, after Helton was fired. Interim coach Donte Williams had no idea how to usher a team through a season. The locker room was in disarray. It all felt unfair to the players. The subsequent search did end up yielding Riley — a move that, at the time, looked like a major coup — but because USC was in such a desperate position, it had to offer Riley a huge deal that he couldn’t possibly refuse.

Firing Riley now would leave athletic director Jen Cohen in a similarly tough position, with months of speculation surrounding a high-pressure search. The players, as far as we know, are still behind Riley. Meanwhile, many of the coaches Cohen would probably consider in his stead will have their teams in the playoff hunt through December and even January. One need only look at what’s happened to Penn State to see how that could go awry.

There’s also the matter of Riley’s contract. If USC does fire him, it will be on the hook for his estimated $70-million buyout, plus whatever millions it would owe to the rest of his staff. But there is one way that the school could soften the blow of what would otherwise be a serious expenditure.

If Cohen makes a move, she could wait until the end of the season, when a full picture of the open coaching jobs has come into focus and Riley’s agent has had a chance to take a lay of the land. Maybe then a job would emerge that both Riley and the school agree would be a better fit.

In that case, USC could significantly offset the cost of Riley’s buyout, according to a person familiar with the situation but not authorized to speak on the matter. That would make the move much more palatable to the people already shelling out millions for a state-of-the-art facility, as well as a $40-million NIL budget.

The dots are easy to connect. The Baylor job already opened Sunday, and the school, according to On3, is looking for a coach with Texas roots. It’s possible, too, that the Texas Christian job opens up by the end of the year if Sonny Dykes, who has ties to Riley, can’t turn things around. Other jobs will surely open up that we’re not even anticipating.

Until a donor waving around a $70-million check starts making demands, it makes more sense to weather the next month with Riley, whatever it may hold. Maybe it won’t be as bad as you’re thinking.

But for the moment, it’s the rational thing to do.

Extra points

—USC rushed for negative-17 yards against Wisconsin. Seriously. On the Trojans’ first carry Saturday, King Miller ran straight into a brick wall of the Badger defensive front. And it never really got better from there. Jayden Maiava lost 57 yards on five sacks, which made the rushing numbers look much worse. But it’s not like USC’s other rushers found any room. Miller had eight yards in 11 carries. Freshman Shahn Alston was the leading rusher with 28 yards. And Waymond Jordan, who had been USC’s No. 2, was conspicuously absent. We’ll find out more about that ahead of Saturday. But right now, USC’s rushing attack looks completely out of sorts.

—What was Lincoln Riley thinking on that 58-yard field goal attempt? Riley was asked about that fourth-quarter sequence, which began with a delay of game penalty that moved the Trojans out of field goal range. Riley said that USC was strangely called for the delay because it ran in a player later, then snapped the ball before the referee had given the OK, not after the clock had run out, like a usual delay. Nonetheless, after that, Riley should’ve punted on fourth and 17. Instead, he decided to send out kicker Caden Chittenden to attempt a career long … in the rain. “We knew points were at a premium at that point,” Riley explained. “We just felt like — obviously, a 58-yarder is never going to be crazy high percentages, but we needed points, and to punt it down there didn’t feel like it was the right choice at the time.” Well, they ended up making the wrong choice. Wisconsin scored on the ensuing drive and put the game away.

—USC’s offensive line might’ve been the game’s biggest disappointment. USC boasted some of the best pass protection in college football through the season’s first half, then completely collapsed against Wisconsin. Quarterback Maiava was affected throughout by the Badgers’ pressure. There was barely any room for the run game, either, as Wisconsin simply overpowered USC at the point of attack. Needless to say, not a great week to have written about how great the offensive line was looking!

—USC’s defense held Wisconsin to 58 passing yards. That’s the fewest the Trojans have given up in a game since holding Michigan to 32 in their Big Ten debut, and in an alternate timeline, it might’ve been seen as a big moment for USC’s secondary. But Badger quarterback Colton Joseph didn’t have an incompletion in the second half, completing his final 10 passes. The most critical of which came on fourth down, when Wisconsin went five wide, with four receivers bunched on one side. The subsequent screen went for a 16-yard touchdown, which was Joseph’s only pass of more than 10 yards all game. Turns out, it’s all he needed.

—Defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart is still limited by an injured foot. The injury continues to linger, and Stewart continues to fight through it. At one point Saturday, he went to the locker room before returning to the game. There’s no questioning Stewart’s toughness, and clearly he’s capable of gutting it out through games. But it doesn’t appear that he’ll be fully healthy again this season without some serious time away from the field.

—USC’s women’s hoops gave a first glimpse of a potential title-winning team on Sunday. The Women of Troy took on Cal in an exhibition matchup that marked JuJu Watkins’ return in front of fans at Galen Center, and Watkins wasted no time making her presence felt, as she went to the hoop 14 seconds into the exhibition. The trio of Watkins, Jazzy Davidson and top freshman Saniyah Hall shot a combined 22 of 45 for 59 of USC’s 78 points. Still, USC barely snuck past Cal.

Notable quotable

“Gritty ain’t pretty. We played the harder football game, brought it to them, and they can’t really do nothing with us. It’s just two different types of football.”

—Former USC running back Bryan Jackson, who scored Saturday’s first touchdown for Wisconsin

Olympic sports spotlight

USC men’s water polo ripped off nine straight wins to start the season, then went 4-3 after that, with two losses to Stanford and one to UCLA, both of which sit just ahead of the Trojans in the national rankings.

The Trojans looked back on track in their final match of the season at home, rolling past Air Force, 21-8. And they still have road matchups against UCLA, Stanford and California that should tell us whether the Trojans are true contenders for a national title.

What I’m watching this week

Some of the smartest movies are also the simplest. I kept thinking about that while watching “The Invite” recently. Directed by Olivia Wilde, the story takes place entirely in one couple’s apartment, during one evening spent with their upstairs neighbors.

It ended up being one of my favorite films of 2026 to date, with stellar performances from all the actors involved: Wilde, Seth Rogen, Ed Norton and, especially, Penélope Cruz. Maybe not the best flick to watch if you’re fighting with your significant other. But “The Invite” made me feel all sorts of feelings, which is generally what I’m looking for in a movie.

In case you missed it

Until next time ...

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