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5 Padres Facing Critical Rule 5 Decisions

Who will get a 40-man roster spot this winter?

San Diego Padres pitcher Tucker Musgrove during the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Game at Sloan Park on Nov. 9, 2025. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

At some point before the next baseball season begins, there will be a Rule 5 draft. It's unclear when it might be held, because a new Collective Bargaining Agreement must be in place first. The current one expires Dec. 1.

A number of dominoes will fall once players and owners ratify a new CBA, but none of it will happen until the forthcoming lockout ends. The Padres can't gain a player in the Rule 5 draft, or lose one, until then.

The Padres once selected Shane Victorino in the Rule 5 draft, only to return the future All-Star to the Los Angeles Dodgers two months into the 2003 season. They had more success taking Bip Roberts in the 1985 Rule 5 draft, before he became a mainstay in the San Diego infield.

Players who signed when they were 19 or older and have played in professional baseball for four years are eligible to be selected in the draft. So are players who signed at 18 and have played five years professionally. All players on a team’s 40-man roster are "protected" and ineligible for the Rule 5 draft.

It's a rite of November for teams to scour their system for the most major-league ready prospects and give them a 40-man roster spot. Here are five players who the Padres could soon add to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

Tucker Musgrove, RHP

A seventh-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Musgrove returned from Tommy John surgery to post a strong 2025 season at Lake Elsinore. The 2026 season was his first full season as a pro, and Musgrove ended it at Double-A San Antonio, where he went 0-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 games.

With a typical hard-throwing reliever's repertoire that generated nearly two strikeouts per inning in the minors, Musgrove is worthy of a look in the Rule 5 draft if he isn't protected.

Luis Gutierrez, LHP

Gutierrez, 23, was limited him to 13 starts in 2026 because of injuries. His 7.71 ERA in two starts at Triple-A El Paso doesn't stand out in a good way.

Another incremental improvement in velocity could help Gutierrez ascend the depth chart, if not compete for a rotation spot, in spring training. Given the Padres' rotation needs, it wouldn't be a shock to see Gutierrez added to the 40-man roster in November.

Jagger Haynes, LHP

A non-roster invitee to spring training in February, the 24-year-old allowed batters to hit .438 against him in three Cactus League appearances. Haynes then started 27 games across Double-A and Triple-A in 2026.

Like Gutierrez, Haynes might benefit from the Padres' relative lack of starting rotation depth to move up quicker than his surface numbers (3-8, 4.80 ERA, 116 strikeouts in 135 innings in 2026) would predict.

Braedon Karpathios, OF

Karpathios, 23, is an undrafted and undersized (5-foot-11) outfielder whose on-base ability preceded his power. He got his first taste of Triple-A this year and slashed .103/.212/.103 in a 10-game sample. That probably doesn't predict a Rule 5 selection.

Jake Cunningham, OF

Cunningham led all Padres minor leaguers in home runs (19) in only 96 games between advanced Class-A Fort Wayne and San Antonio. It was a promising bounce back season for the 24-year-old, who was released from his minor league contract by the Baltimore Orioles a year ago.

His next game at Triple-A will be his first, so any team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft would be taking a gamble.

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