Chelsea travel to Anfield on Wednesday night to take on Liverpool in the fourth round of the Carabao Cup.

Following Chelsea’s 2-0 loss to Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League last weekend, Liverpool overtook Xabi Alonso’s side in the table. They now find themselves in fourth place on 15 points, while Chelsea are fifth and sit on 13 points.

According to Understat, Chelsea have an xG of 12.38 after playing eight games in the Premier League this season. That is higher than Liverpool’s total of 11.83.

Under Alonso, Chelsea are creating better goalscoring opportunities, and had Joao Pedro faced Tottenham, he probably would have got some promising shots away and increased his side’s xG. Pedro is expected to miss the next few weeks because of the injury he picked up before that London derby.

While Chelsea have an xG of 12.38, they have actually scored 17 goals this term, giving them an xG difference of 4.62. Liverpool have scored 11 goals from 11.83 xG so are slightly underperforming and have an xG difference of -0.83.

Ultimately, Chelsea have been the more clinical of the two and have been helped by the likes of Pedro and Morgan Rogers. Pedro has an xG of just 3.61 after eight games but has scored five goals.

Rogers has scored four goals despite having an xG of 1.87. As per FotMob, the attacking midfielder’s brilliant strike against Arsenal last month had an xG of just 0.02! It really puts into perspective Rogers’ finishing this season and the kind of difficult chances Chelsea have been converting.

Alonso used Rogers up front in Chelsea’s defeat to Spurs, but it is fair to say that experiment failed miserably. With Pedro unavailable for the trip to Anfield, it is something we could see again.

Hopefully, though, Danny Welbeck gets a chance, a more natural option. Whoever starts as the No.9, they need to be as clinical as Pedro, as you cannot trust this Chelsea side to keep a clean sheet and win 1-0.

Clearly, Chelsea are a much better side going forward. But the Blues’ impressive goalscoring return also raises the question of whether they can maintain this level of finishing throughout the entire campaign. While their 17 goals from 12.38 xG highlights their ability to convert difficult chances, outperforming xG by 4.62 goals over just eight league games may be difficult to sustain. Expected goals are not a definitive prediction of future returns. As the season progresses, they may need to create more high-quality opportunities to maintain their attacking output.