Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

It might be time to start a newsletter where we ONLY cover big NFL trades, because this week has been crazy, and it's all thanks to the AFC South. Apparently, the bad teams in that division have decided to have a fire sale this week. The action started on Tuesday with the Colts trading both Quenton Nelson (Seahawks) and DeForest Buckner (49ers), and it continued today with the Titans sending Jeffrey Simmons to Chicago in a blockbuster deal. 

In a twist, Simmons' first game with the Bears will actually be coming against Nelson and the Seahawks on Monday night. 

We'll be covering the details of the Simmons trade in today's newsletter, plus we'll have some picks and best bets for tonight's game between the Packers and Panthers. 

As always, here's your reminder to tell all of your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, just click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Jeffrey Simmons trade: Details on the Titans-Bears deal and trade grades

The Bears are officially going all-in on the 2026 season, and we know because they just mortgaged their future to land Jeffrey Simmons from the Titans in a blockbuster trade. Simmons is arguably the best defensive tackle in the NFL right now, and the Bears paid a steep price to get him. 

• Bears get: Jeffrey Simmons, 2028 fifth-round pick
• Titans get: 2027 first-round pick and fourth-round pick, 2028 first-round pick

That's right, the Bears are sending TWO first-round picks to the Titans to make this deal happen, but that's the price you have to pay to land a player like Simmons. The 29-year-old is coming off a 2025 season where he earned first-team All-Pro honors. Since the start of last season, he has 15 sacks, which is the most in the NFL for a defensive tackle in that span. For the Bears, this fills a gaping hole on the roster. Heading into Week 8, they've only gotten one sack on the season from their interior defensive tackles, but that should change as soon as Simmons steps on the field for them. 

TRADE GRADES

Whenever there's a trade, there's 100% chance we're going to hand out grades for that deal, and that's exactly what we did in this situation. Bryan DeArdo graded the deal, and here's what he came up with: 

• Bears grade: A-. Give Chicago a ton of credit for going all-in. The Bears clearly feel they have a team capable of winning it all; they wouldn't have made a trade of this magnitude if they didn't. By getting Simmons, the Bears have increased their odds of winning what is arguably the NFL's hardest division. Yes, it came at a monstrous cost, which is why Chicago didn't receive a perfect score for this trade. Really, the only way this trade works out for the Bears is if they win a Super Bowl. It's a massive risk, but it's one that the Bears feel is worth it. 
• Titans grade: C+. Titans fans can rightfully sell to their fan base the value of getting two first-round picks for a non-quarterback. From a picks standpoint, the return is similar to what the Cowboys received when they traded Micah Parsons to the Packers last season. This trade sets the Titans up to draft some talented players in future drafts, but that won't matter if they draft the wrong players. Unfortunately, the Titans' track record of maximizing their draft capital hasn't been good. 

2. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Panthers at Packers

We've got an intriguing battle going on tonight in Green Bay with the Packers (4-3) facing off against the Panthers (3-3). 

This is a huge game for both teams. On Green Bay's end, it's already in last place in the NFC North, and it doesn't want to fall any further behind, so the Packers could really use a win here. As for the Panthers, they looked to be in control of the NFC South heading into Week 7, but then they suffered a 30-point loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday. With a loss here, they could drop out of first place by the time Week 8 is over. 

On the injury front, the Panthers won't have linebacker Jaelan Phillips (hamstring), who is second on the team in sacks. Phillips didn't play against the Bucs on Sunday, and Carolina promptly gave up 43 points. As for the Packers, they'll be down two offensive linemen with guard/tackle Travis Glover (knee) and center Sean Rhyan (ankle) both ruled out. However, the Packers will likely have receiver Matthew Golden, who is trending toward playing despite missing two days of practice this week due to injuries to his shoulder and foot. 

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: 

• Why the Panthers can win: Bryce Young has been playing at an incredibly high level this year, and that might be enough for Carolina to pull off the upset. Heading into Week 8, he's averaging 285.3 passing yards per game, which is the second-highest number in the NFL. If you can throw the ball on the Packers, you can beat them. In their seven games this season, the Packers are 4-1 when they hold their opponent under 255 passing yards, but 0-2 when that number goes above 255. Not only does Young need to have a big game, but he needs to play turnover-free football. The Panthers are 0-3 this year when Young turns the ball over and 3-0 when he doesn't. 
• Why the Packers can win: It's a good thing the Packers got Josh Jacobs back, because they're going to need him in this game. Through the first seven weeks, the Packers have had the worst rushing offense in the NFL, averaging just 59.8 yards per game. To give you an idea of how bad that is, no other team is even averaging under 70 yards per game. If the Packers are going to turn things around, this is the week to do it. Jacobs will be facing a Panthers defense that has given up the most rushing yards per game this year (153.2 yards per game). If you can run on the Panthers, you can beat them: Carolina is 1-3 this season when giving up at least 100 yards on the ground. The Packers didn't have Jacobs for their first six games, so their struggles on the ground made sense, but he's back now. This needs to be the week where the Packers finally turn to their rushing attack. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. 

• ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Josh Jacobs OVER 59.5 yards (-114 at DraftKings): The Panthers have played six games this year, and SEVEN DIFFERENT players have rushed for at least 60 yards against them. Carolina can NOT stop the run, which is why I think Jacobs will coast past this number. The biggest risk with this prop is that Jacobs is playing his second game in five days after missing the first six weeks, so he could be a little sore. That being said, I have to think Matt LaFleur will do everything possible to get his ground game going in this game. 
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Ryan Fitzgerald OVER 6.5 points (-121 at DraftKings): I'm not sure if the Packers trust their kicker right now, so I will not be touching any Trey Smack props, but I am pretty sure that the Panthers trust Fitzgerald. Through Carolina's first six games, Fitzgerald has gone 11-of-11 on field goal attempts, which makes him one of just five kickers in the NFL who're still perfect heading into Week 8. Fitzgerald has gone over 6.5 points in five of his six games this year, and I think that run will continue with an impressive performance in Green Bay.  

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 9-19 (4-10 on kicker props and 5-9 on all other props). After starting off 5-3, I'm now 4-15 on my last 19 props. It's gotten ugly. I clearly need to re-evaluate everything I'm doing in life. And yes, this is obviously a sign that you should be fading me until further notice. As a matter of fact, I might start fading myself.

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Jared Dubin's pick: Packers 24-17 over Panthers
John Breech's pick: Packers 30-23 over Panthers
Jordan Dajani's pick: Packers 27-23 over Panthers
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Packers 30-20 over Panthers
Prisco's pick: Packers 31-24 over Panthers

If you want to know which way all of our experts are leaning, you can check that out on our CBSSports.com picks page. 

3. NFL Week 8 picks: Undefeated Vikings go down, Steelers win AFC North showdown

Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have five NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan, Jared Dubin and me — handing out picks each week. If you're wondering who did the best last week, it was Dubin, who went 10-4. The rest of us apparently fell asleep at the wheel with our picks because we all tied with an 8-6 record. Dubin has now finished at the top for two straight weeks. He is basically the Browns: No one believed in him at the beginning of the season, but now, he's taking down everyone. 

Anyway, if you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 8 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 8 predictions; if you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life. 

• Pete Prisco — Lions (-3) 23-13 over Vikings. From Prisco: "The undefeated Vikings face a tough road game here against Detroit. The Lions' offense against the Minnesota defense will be a treat to watch. Jared Goff is playing at a high level right now, but Minnesota's defense is the best in the league in terms of scoring. The Vikings offense is limited, but the Detroit defense has had major problems. But they were better last week, which I think carries over. Lions take it." For the rest of Prisco's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here.
• Tyler Sullivan — Patriots (-7.5) 30-20 over Dolphins. From Sullivan: "While they'll be on the road, the Patriots have the rest advantage in this game after playing last Thursday. They're also simply the better team. Miami is allowing 5.7 yards per play this season and 7.8 yards per pass attempt (tied for third-highest in the NFL). Drake Maye should continue to find success through the air against a Dolphins secondary that is allowing a league-high 116.8 passer rating against. So long as they don't shoot themselves in the foot, this should be a double-digit victory for New England." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here.
• Jordan Dajani — Broncos (+1.5) 20-16 over Chiefs. From Dajani: "Despite the one-loss record, the Chiefs again have been a bad team to bet on. They are 3-3 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS on the road since 2025. That ranks worst in the NFL entering this week. The Broncos, on the other hand, are 5-1 SU AND ATS in their last six games, which is tied with the Browns for the best ATS record in the NFL since Week 2. They have won four straight games as a home underdog." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here.
• Jared Dubin — Steelers (-3.5) 20-13 over Browns. From Dubin: "I don't understand how the Browns keep doing it. Every single one of their victories has required a game-winning drive in the final five minutes of the game. That's not sustainable on any level whatsoever. The Steelers don't exactly have consistency written all over them, considering the vagaries of their passing game and the fact that their three-game winning streak has come against weak opponents. But I trust Jaylen Warren and Co. more than I do the Browns at this point. " For the rest of Dubin's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here. 
• John Breech — Bills (-3) 38-31 over Ravens. From me: "The Bills have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and if they had any other quarterbacks, I'd probably pick against them, but they have Josh Allen. On the Ravens' end, Lamar Jackson hasn't played in a month, and although I expect him to start, I do think he'll show a small amount of rust, which means he won't be able to take full advantage of Buffalo's bad defense." For the rest of my Week 8 picks, be sure to click here. 

For more Week 8 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here. 

4. Projecting all 14 teams that will make the NFL playoffs: Bills are looking super

The playoff projections are back! We first unveiled them after Week 1, and they'll be popping up in this newsletter every two weeks until the end of the season. 

Heading into Week 8, we had some big changes in our playoff projection. Last week, the Chiefs were projected to get the top seed in the AFC, and the 49ers were projected to get the top seed in the NFC. After both teams ended up losing, there's a new team at the top of each conference. 

If you're wondering how these projections work, we brought in our resident analytics expert, Stephen Oh. Oh simulated the rest of the season to see how things will end up playing out, and let me tell you, if his projections pan out, every folding table in Buffalo is going to get smashed. 

With that in mind, here's what the playoff field looks like according to Oh's projections: 

AFC
1. Bills (5-1) -- AFC East champion
2. Chiefs (5-1) -- AFC West champion
3. Jaguars (4-2) -- AFC South champion
4. Bengals (4-2) -- AFC North champion
5. Broncos (5-2)
6. Steelers (5-2)
7. Ravens (4-3)
JUST MISSED: Patriots (4-3), Browns (5-2)

AFC breakdown: We have a new team being projected to win the AFC North: Cincinnati. The Bengals made history in Week 7 by becoming the first team in 75 years to win a game by at least 20 points after trailing by at least 13 points at halftime. One thing working in the Bengals' favor is their schedule. They only have to play one more road game against a team that currently has a winning record (Browns in Week 13). Speaking of the Browns, they haven't won a division title since 1989, and our computer model doesn't see that drought ending this year. Our projection has them finishing 8-9 and out of the playoffs. 

NFC 
1. Vikings (6-0) -- NFC North champion
2. 49ers (6-1) -- NFC West champion
3. Falcons (3-4) -- NFC South champion
4. Cowboys (3-4) -- NFC East champion
5. Lions (4-2)
6. Seahawks (4-3)
7. Bears (5-2) 
JUST MISSED: Packers (4-3), Rams (3-4)

NFC breakdown: The Vikings are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and they're now being projected to finish as the top seed in the NFC. Also, the Cowboys are now projected to win the NFC East. This marks the first time all season that we've had the Cowboys projected to finish at the top of the division. Our model basically views the NFC East as a two-horse race between the Cowboys and Giants, with Dallas given a 38.5% chance to win the division and the Giants RIGHT behind them at 37.3%. One thing working in the Cowboys' favor is that they have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule. 

Not only did the computer project the entire playoff field, but it also picked a surprising Super Bowl winner. Spoiler alert: It was the BILLS. The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, but our computer thinks that's going to change this year. 

If you want to know who they're playing in the big game or who they beat in the playoffs, you'll have to check out my full story here. 

5. NFL trade deadline matchmaker: Jonathan Taylor to the NFC North? 

Don't look now, but the NFL trade deadline (Nov. 10) is right around the corner. We've already seen three big trades go down this week, with the Colts involved in two of those, and the crazy thing is they might not be done. 

Zach Pereles decided to play matchmaker this week, pairing trade candidates with a team that makes sense for them. And since the Colts are trading everyone, Zach made sure to include Jonathan Taylor in this exercise. 

Let's see where Zach has Taylor and two other trade candidates ending up: 

• Jonathan Taylor to the Vikings. The Kyler Murray experience has been a rough one. He'll produce a big play or two with his legs or his arm, but the down-to-down consistency hasn't been close to good enough. He is 27th in sack rate, 29th in passing success rate and 31st in touchdown rate. Taylor, meanwhile, is a scoring machine, and he'd provide explosiveness to the running game, too. The Vikings saw it up close and personal Sunday, with Taylor totaling 110 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Aaron Jones has been playing through a knee injury, which he aggravated Sunday. The Vikings can't risk wasting their Super Bowl-caliber defense. Taylor is the solution.
• Saquon Barkley to the Bengals. It's been a disappointing year for Bengals running back Chase Brown. His -0.6 yards per attempt over expected is among the worst in the NFL, and it seemingly isn't clicking for him. The Bengals made a blockbuster move for Dexter Lawrence this year despite concerns about his age and productivity, and it has been hugely successful so far. Barkley could be a similar spark, especially with defenses devoting so much attention to Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
• Tariq Woolen to the Lions. The Lions were in on Joey Porter Jr. before he ultimately ended up on the Cowboys. This could be another solid option for much, much cheaper. The Eagles figure to be sellers given the disastrous run of injuries on the offensive side of the ball.

Zach came up with a total of nine trades, and you can check them all out here. 

6. Extra points: Lamar Jackson might actually play this week

It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Lamar Jackson tracking to play on Sunday. After missing three games with an ankle injury, Lamar Jackson is finally expected to return this week. Not only was he a full participant in practice on Wednesday, but he took all the first-team snaps, CBS Sports Insider Matt Zenitz has reported. Although Jackson practiced last week, he was limited in all three sessions, and at no point did he take the majority of the first-team snaps. Getting Jackson back would be huge news for the Ravens, who have lost two straight games and will be looking to end their skid against the Bills. 
• Are the Vikings frauds? We wanted to know if you could win a Super Bowl with a great defense and nothing else, so Doug Clawson decided to answer that question. What he found is that if you have a historically great defense like the 2000 Ravens or 2002 Buccaneers, it's certainly possible, but it's not easy. The Vikings fit the mold of a team that could make some noise in the postseason, and if you want to see how they fit in historically with other strong defensive teams, Doug has the answer here. 
• Why the Colts' teardown might now work. The Colts have decided to blow things up and start over. They've already made two trades this week, and there certainly could be more before the trade deadline hits. For Thursday, Ryan Wilson broke down why Indy's plan might not work in a story that's definitely worth reading here.