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This week is the start of the 2026-27 NBA regular season, a year that could be, for what my money is worth, the greatest season in NBA history.
The reason I believe this is that there are so many teams going for it, with the NBA doing everything that it could to eliminate tanking from our beautiful game.
With this much parity in our ranks, it is hard to know what to expect. Fortunately, the good folks at Opta Analyst (another employer of mine) have put together a model that runs hundreds of simulations in order to predict how the upcoming season will play out.
So, in honor of their love letter, let's analyze the results the supercomputer came up with.
Keep in mind, since this an average of all the simulations, the outputs are in decimal form. You obviously cannot have .2 wins, so keep that in mind as you look at this.
Team |
Seed |
Estimated Wins |
Estimate Losses |
|---|---|---|---|
New York Knicks |
1 |
51 |
31 |
Boston Celtics |
2 |
49 |
33 |
Detroit Pistons |
3 |
48 |
34 |
Toronto Raptors |
4 |
46.3 |
35.7 |
Miami Heat |
5 |
44.8 |
37.2 |
Cleveland Cavaliers |
6 |
44.5 |
37.5 |
Atlanta Hawks |
7 |
43.6 |
38.4 |
Orlando Magic |
8 |
42.6 |
39.4 |
Philalephia 76ers |
9 |
42 |
40 |
Charlotte Hornets |
10 |
41.1 |
40.9 |
Indiana Pacers |
11 |
35.5 |
46.5 |
Chicago Bulls |
12 |
34.4 |
47.6 |
Milwaukee Bucks |
13 |
31.9 |
50.1 |
Brooklyn Nets |
14 |
29.4 |
52.6 |
Washington Wizards |
15 |
27.9 |
54.1 |
Team |
Seed |
Estimated Wins |
Estimated Losses |
|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma City Thunder |
1 |
56.2 |
25.8 |
San Antonio Spurs |
2 |
53.3 |
28.7 |
Houston Rockets |
3 |
49.8 |
32.2 |
Denver Nuggets |
4 |
46.8 |
35.2 |
Portland Trail Blazers |
5 |
43 |
39 |
Golden State Warriors |
6 |
42.9 |
39.1 |
Minnesota Timberwolves |
7 |
42.3 |
39.7 |
Los Angeles Lakers |
8 |
41.5 |
40.5 |
Phoenix Suns |
9 |
40.9 |
41.1 |
Los Angeles Clippers |
10 |
37.7 |
44.3 |
New Orleans Pelicans |
11 |
34.5 |
47.5 |
Dallas Mavericks |
12 |
34 |
48 |
Memphis Grizzlies |
13 |
33.7 |
48.3 |
Utah Jazz |
14 |
32.2 |
49.8 |
Sacramento Kings |
15 |
29 |
53 |
Obviously, the NBA has their play-in tournament, where the 7-10 seeds duke it out to see who will get the final two playoff spots in their conference. But for the sake of simplicity, we are just going to assume that the seven and eight seeds end up making it out of the single-game elimination tournament.
The two biggest omissions from this list are the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers. I thought I was much lower than consensus on the 76ers this season, but even I expect them to be in the playoffs. Not only does the supercomputer think the Pacers are missing the playoffs, but it also doesn't think they will qualify for the play-in tournament, as it projects them for the 11th-seed in the Eastern Conference.
Now, let's take a look at the projected first round matchups for the Western Conference, assuming that the seventh and eighth seeds take care of business in the play-in tournament.
Here, we have two rematches from last year's Western Conference semifinals in the Oklahoma City Thunder/Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs/Minnesota Timberwolves matchups. Interestingly enough, the supercomputer thinks that the Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers will both be better than the Lakers and Timberwolves. The biggest surprise here is that the supercomputer thinks that the Utah Jazz are still a Western Conference bottom-feeder, despite all that they have done over the last year to get out of this rebuild phase.
Along with win projections, the model also includes each team's chances of making the playoffs, conference semifinals, conference finals, and NBA Finals. It also has each team's current odds at winning the NBA Finals. Here are the top five teams according to the supercomputer.
Team |
Chances of Winning the NBA Finals |
|---|---|
Oklahoma City Thunder |
18.7% |
San Antonio Spurs |
12.0% |
New York Knicks |
10.4% |
Houston Rockets |
8.4% |
Boston Celtics |
7.3% |
It comes as no suprise that the Thunder and Spurs (the Western Conference juggernauts), along with the defending-champion New York Knicks, are at the top of the leaderboard. The real eyebrow raisers here are the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics. The Rockets were a first round exit last season, but are now getting back Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams. Meanwhile, the Celtics are ready to start a new chapter after trading Jaylen Brown for Paul George (and draft capital) this offseason.
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