The NFL trade deadline in fantasy football is like moving furniture around in your living room. Sure, that chair could go there, which opens up space for this table, and then this lamp can go here which really completes the space, I mean, imagine how much easier it will be for people to talk when the couch isn't blocking half the room ...

... and then nobody sits in there, because everyone always just sits in the TV room and the kitchen, like always. The trade deadline is rife with speculation, intrigue and potential for fantasy football earthquakes, but it usually winds up being a whole mess of nothing — just like moving that chair from the left corner to the right corner. If nobody sits in it, did it really move at all?

I have one ironclad rule in fantasy football this time of year: 99 percent of the time, when an offensive player gets traded at the deadline, it is bad for their fantasy value. Unless it is a seismic player like Christian McCaffrey, who was traded to the San Francisco 49ers midseason in 2022, most running backs, wide receivers or tight ends who get dealt go from bad teams with fewer offensive options to good teams with better offenses but more volume competition. And in fantasy football, good offenses are important, but volume is more important.

So I'm going to run through pretty much all of the notable offensive players traded (or notably not traded, or on a team someone just got traded to) at or around the deadline, and tell you if their stock is up or down. One player not mentioned: Jonathan Taylor, whose stock I'd argue changed not one bit! I write waivers and start/sit every week, but you fantasy enjoyers got me for a bonus episode this week, like I'm a character from Chicago Fire who shows up on Chicago Med randomly; I don't actually watch those shows, does that happen? Doesn't matter, let's get moving!

Riser: WR Josh Downs, Kansas City Chiefs

I considered adding (derogatory) after the word "riser" in the heading, because Downs' stock is up just because I'm not sure how it could possibly get any lower. He had pretty squarely quit on the Colts, and openly demanded a trade, so there's a chance Downs will be the immediate man coverage-beating tool that the Chiefs have needed all year. But there's also a chance Downs experiences exactly what happens to every wide receiver that gets traded to an exciting offense with a name-brand quarterback: He doesn't know the playbook, so he doesn't play enough.

Be careful starting wide receivers in fantasy football who just switched teams. Teams give them time to get acclimated, and I'm reminded of Amari Cooper ending up on the Bills in 2024 to much excitement and fanfare. He just didn't play enough to ever matter in fantasy, and I wouldn't be shocked if Downs is the same story at the end of the day. Definitely do not start him this week, that would be insane.

Riser: WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

We're so back. We have never been so back in our lives. Throw Jordan Addison in here too, someone go get T.J. Hockenson — it's just a party, because Kirk Cousins has arrived to save the Minnesota Vikings pass catchers from certain fantasy doom.

The best year of Justin Jefferson's career, in which he had over 1,800 receiving yards and 128 catches, came with Cousins under center. This is not the exact same Kirk Cousins, but it is still a similar version who was playing pretty darn well in Las Vegas all things considered. And the Vikings quarterback situation before this trade was nothing short of a debacle; Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz could not have looked worse. This is a category upgrade, and Minnesota spent a third-round pick to make it happen — not cheap.

Faller: Las Vegas Raiders pass-catchers (TE Brock Bowers, WR Tre Tucker)

I don't think Fernando Mendoza will be bad, and if Klint Kubiak is smart (he is), he'll tell Mendoza exactly what he needs to hear: If you don't know what to do, throw it to Brock Bowers. But will that happen immediately? And will it happen at the volume it was happening at with Cousins? I don't know. You're obviously starting Bowers no matter what so that's moot, but I would be wary about Tre Tucker going forward. I'd at least want to see it first.

Faller: WR Keenan Allen, San Francisco 49ers

This is such a classic "wide receiver goes to better offense and so everyone thinks he'll be better in fantasy but he's actually just worse because of lower volume" situation. Allen just went from splitting targets with Laquon Treadwell, a pissed-off Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin to competing for target share with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and eventually Mike Evans when he returns. This is a high-powered offense, but I'm not even sure how often Allen is going to be on the field. He was a flex option before; now he's only startable if the 49ers are missing multiple starters.

Risers: WR Zay Flowers and RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

I'd say these are "relative risers", relative to what could have happened had the Ravens not traded for Jacoby Brissett — a move that suggests Lamar Jackson intends to return this season, which was then confirmed. I don't think Brissett is good or even particularly average, but he has repeatedly shown an ability to pepper elite receivers with targets in Arizona, from Trey McBride to Michael Wilson. Zay Flowers should get most of that benefit until Jackson's return, though he may not wind up the Offensive Player of the Year candidate we all thought he might be.

As for Henry, the last few weeks have been abysmal, mostly because the Ravens have been essentially unable to pass the ball and have settled into negative and predictable game scripts that destroy his value as a pure rusher. He doesn't play passing downs, so that's something we have to deal with. But with Brissett, the offense should be more balanced and stable, and I'm glad Henry wasn't traded himself, as that would have almost certainly been bad for his fantasy value given that Baltimore is still designed to feed him a metric ton of carries.