Manchester City have denied all wrongdoing and are appealing against the guilty verdict on their alleged financial charges. But if the appeal fails, the club could face significant sanctions including a points deduction, a hefty fine or even relegation

The footballing world was thrown into turmoil last month when an independent commission found Manchester City guilty on 114 of the 115 charges brought against them, relating to breaches of Premier League financial rules and reporting requirements between 2009 and 2018.

The club stand accused of orchestrating 'sham' agreements to conceal direct owner funding of more than £800million, as well as actively obstructing the investigation. City have vehemently denied all allegations, claiming to hold "irrefutable evidence" that their revenues and contracts were legitimate.

The appeals process is now under way, with reports suggesting the Premier League Appeal Board's findings may not be delivered until January.

Should the appeal prove unsuccessful, the punishments City could face range from a substantial points deduction to outright expulsion from the Premier League. The range of disciplinary measures available to an independent commission explicitly includes three primary sanctions.

The rest of the Premier League is watching on intently. Newcastle United have so far made no comment, and while manager Matthias Jaissle was asked about the case but said: "It is not in my job description to judge on that. The authorities are taking care of it and there is a clear process now which will be followed and speaking on behalf of the whole club, it is the right approach to focus on what we we can do better and what we can influence on the pitch."

Newcastle have been at pains over recent years to abide by the PSR rules in place. They were forced to sell Elliot Anderson and Yankuba Minteh in 2024 to avoid penalties, and while they were fined by UEFA for breaching their SCR regulations, as part of the sanctions they had to cash in on Anthony Gordon in the summer. It's why they are watching the outcome so closely.

It's a situation which is keeping all of football intrigued and after more speculation this week, we examine the potential consequences of each possible outcome facing Man City.

Severe points deduction

Sources currently suggest a points deduction is the most probable sanction should City lose their appeal, according to reports. The Daily Mail claims the penalty could be severe enough to guarantee the club's relegation to the Championship, with a further deduction ensuring they spend an additional season in the division.

In terms of implementation, the process would be relatively straightforward. Points deductions have been issued in recent years for similar breaches, notably to Everton and Nottingham Forest during the 2023/24 campaign.

Should the punishment prove as severe as expected and City face relegation, there would be no difficulty in working with the EFL - a promoted Championship club would simply take City's place, assuming City meet the EFL's admission and financial requirements.

Complications could arise regarding the rumoured second-season deduction, however, as the EFL would need to impose this. But if an agreement can be reached, then regardless of whether it keeps them in the division or not, there would be no requirement to modify how the Championship functions.

Amongst rival supporters, some believe this potential punishment is too lenient, while others consider it appropriate. It seems probable that, given City's infrastructure, they could return to the top flight following this hypothetical spell.

However, the Premier League would lose City, one of its most commercially valuable clubs. However, a number of first-team players would likely seek an exit should they face relegation following a points deduction, with significant changes to the wage structure also becoming necessary.

A massive fine

Reports further suggest that City face a financial penalty, either alongside a points deduction or as their sole punishment. Ex-Arsenal star Martin Keown, for instance, claimed on talkSPORT that sources had informed him this would be the manner of City's punishment should their appeal fail.

The precise nature of any fine remains entirely speculative, as does the potential sum involved. The largest penalty the Premier League has ever issued to a club was the £10.75 million handed to Chelsea in March. However, given the gravity of the findings, any financial sanction would far exceed that figure.

With City boasting an annual turnover of £715m, the true impact of any fine would depend heavily on its size. Anything below £50m may barely register. Conversely, anything upwards of £200m would hamper spending and potentially force player sales, as the league caps owner-funded losses at £90m over a three-year period, ruling out any direct intervention.

In the unlikely scenario that the league opts to fine City the full amount of their alleged £800m-plus in disguised owner funding, it would likely devastate the current squad - though such an outcome remains almost inconceivable. While a financial penalty is straightforward to enforce, many may feel that a modest fine would carry little weight.

This is perhaps why, historically, points deductions have been favoured over fines, ensuring clubs feel the true consequences of their misconduct more acutely. A fine remains a likely outcome, though potentially alongside an additional sanction.

Immediate expulsion

The most extreme option available to the Premier League would be to remove City from the top flight entirely. Depending on the FA's classification, they could find themselves in the National League or Tier 10 of the football pyramid should this drastic measure be taken and the EFL refuse to accept them.

Should this occur rather than a more conventional relegation following a points deduction, City would receive neither parachute payments nor prize money from higher divisions. They would be cast down the football ladder and compelled to spend numerous seasons working their way back to the top flight.

Players would almost certainly be forced to depart, as would highly-paid staff members, since the current set-up would be wholly unsuitable for non-league football, even for a single campaign. City's supporters would also bear the brunt of this punishment, with away allocations reduced to a bare minimum.

However, significant logistical obstacles make outright expulsion unlikely. The receiving non-league competition would need to formally accept City, causing considerable disruption to promotion and relegation quotas throughout the pyramid.

The Premier League and Championship would also be left with unresolved fixture gaps, raising questions about whether an extra team should be promoted or one fewer relegated. Whichever division City ends up in could also refuse to accept them.

Finally, City's legal team would almost certainly contest an expulsion order in the High Court under the Arbitration Act, pursuing an emergency injunction that could leave English football embroiled in legal proceedings for years.