Fans prioritizing their brains and eyes over their hearts know the New York Giants haven’t looked like a Super Bowl contender through five games of the 2026 NFL campaign. It might even be hard to call them a convincing playoff team given their injuries and current roster limitations.

But they are definitely trending in the right direction. A 3-1-1 record is good enough for first place in the NFC East, and it reflects significant growth for a squad that had several fourth-quarter follies last season. Nevertheless, skepticism still abounds.

StickToTheModel concluded that the Giants are the league's biggest frauds, using roster strength, quality of play, and the upcoming schedule to support its findings.

Giants still have to prove themselves against better competition

Big Blue is markedly better than it was in 2025. That was a frighteningly low bar to clear, but head coach John Harbaugh is leading a more competent, prepared, and clutch football team. New York’s three wins reinforce that claim, as they were all secured with notable fourth-quarter displays.

Regardless of the competition, the Giants weren’t winning those types of games last year. The opposition can’t be ignored entirely, however. The Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, and Arizona Cardinals are 3-12 combined, and the Washington Commanders are 1-3-1.

The Los Angeles Rams, who earned a 28-6 victory over the Giants in Week 2, have a 2-3 record that should improve as the season progresses. On the other hand, New York could face more problems down the road, as it has six games against teams that reached the playoffs last season.

Circumstances have changed around the league and within the division, and that is worth monitoring. It is also fair to say that New York still has plenty to figure out on both offense and defense.

Can the Giants change minds?

Despite ranking 10th in points allowed (21.2 per game) and becoming far less susceptible to the big pass play, New York is still leaky against the run. The team is giving up 5.2 yards per carry, second-worst in the league, ahead of only the Carolina Panthers.

Defensive tackles D.J. Reader and Shelby Harris and new linebackers Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds have boosted the run defense, but there is clearly still work to be done. The secondary is exceeding expectations, allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game. Still, defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson needs more consistency from the group.

The Giants can only do so much on offense with an inefficient running game averaging 3.7 yards per attempt. Jameis Winston is coming alive at quarterback, stretching the field and using playmakers like receiver Malik Nabers and tight end Isaiah Likely. He has a spotty track record, however.

Perhaps the best way to underscore the uncertainty still hovering over this group is to recall how it earned its last two wins. Safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Deonte Banks thwarted go-ahead touchdowns with interceptions, and Banks returned his for a touchdown.

The ability to create turnovers defines successful teams, but narrowly escaping defeat at home against the last-place Titans and Cardinals deserves a closer look. When you take everything into account, I agree that the Giants have been the season’s biggest overachievers.

But they are not a playoff impostor. Given the many questions facing the rest of the division, New York stands out as the most logical NFC East representative right now.

Even without promising quarterback Jaxson Dart and second-team All-Pro edge rusher Brian Burns, the Giants have forged a favorable path for themselves more than a quarter of the way through the season. Remember this: the least popular guest at the ball still managed to clear the velvet ropes and rub elbows with the elites.

Label the Giants party crashers if you want. Still, if they keep capitalizing on their opportunities, they will eventually earn a legitimate seat at the postseason table.