Fantasy managers entered 2026 with high hopes for Tucker Kraft and Kyle Pitts. Each had the potential to be the top at their position, but they've mostly fallen short. They currently meet the criteria for being weekly tight end start-sit debates. That is where I will come in. Using historical findings of what proves accurate and inaccurate for start-sit debates, the following data projects who to trust in Week 10.

The Case of Tucker Kraft

I find volume and usage paramount. If both are proven over time, they avoid being a floor player; instead, when they do score a touchdown, it significantly raises the player's floor and ceiling.

Kraft has played nine games this season. Over that span, he is averaging 5.7 targets, 4.0 receptions, and 39.0 yards per game. Kraft has a 19.8% targets-per-route run rate and a 74% Route Rate.

How good has Kraft truly been as a football player? That is a measure I value when evaluating a player. Kraft ranks 24th at his position in PFF Receiving Grade and 10th in EPA per Target. In 2025, Kraft was among the most explosive tight ends in football, but this year he averages merely 9.8 Yards per reception, which is quite average.

The matchup ahead will generally determine how well a player performs at his best. Kraft competes against the Vikings this week. They rank as follows against tight ends:

• 12th-toughest in Yards per Target Allowed
• Toughest in Receptions Allowed per Game
• 8th-easiest in Yards Allowed per Game
• Toughest in Touchdowns Allowed per Game
• 2nd-toughest in Fantasy Points Allowed

I project this game to be one of the lower-scoring affairs this week, given the Vikings' stout defense and the Packers' strong form. That knocks back Kraft's chances of finding his upside.

I label touchdowns as a bonus for tight ends rather than a reliable factor. Most NFL tight ends score a touchdown in fewer than 50% of games. Most score in fewer than 35% of games.

Kraft has been a red-zone weapon this season, with 9 red-zone targets, 7 receptions, and 3 touchdowns. Nonetheless, he is scoring in fewer than 50% of games played.

The Case of Kyle Pitts

Pitts has played in nine games this season. He is averaging 4.0 targets, 2.8 receptions, and 24.4 yards per game. He has a 20.3% targets-per-route run rate and a 70% route rate.

Among the two advanced metrics I value most, Pitts ranks 14th in PFF Receiving Grade and 23rd in EPA per Target. He is averaging 8.8 Yards per Reception.

The Falcons will be battling the Chiefs this weekend in Atlanta. They rank as follows against tight ends:

• 10th-toughest in Yards per Target Allowed
• 3rd-easiest in Receptions Allowed per Game
• 7th-easiest in Yards per Game Allowed
• 9th-easiest in Touchdowns Allowed per Game
• 7th-easiest in Fantasy Points Allowed per Game

Pitts certainly has a favorable matchup. The game also favors him reaching his ceiling. My matchup projection has the Chiefs comfortably winning by about one touchdown, with both teams scoring at least 20 points.

A pass script is certainly foreseeable for the Falcons. In which Pitts would obviously get a ton of volume.

As for my bonus category, touchdowns, Pitts has the following in the red zone: 8 targets, 6 receptions, and 4 touchdowns. He has a red-zone target share of about 24%.

Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Tucker Kraft vs. Kyle Pitts

I suggest that you err on Pitts' side. Both players have similar volume, advanced metrics, and red zone opportunity. Pitts, however, trumps Kraft in the matchup breakdown.

The Vikings are among the stoutest units against any offense, especially tight ends. The Chiefs are very forgiving, and the game script favors Pitts.