A week ago, Eugene, Oregon, had little reason to be optimistic. The Oregon Ducks were coming off their third loss of the season, and news that offensive coordinator Drew Mehringrer had been let go followed a realization that chances at making the College Football Playoff had all but vanished.

However, a week later, optimism has returned. It may not be bountiful, but it's there.

With a ranked win over the No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats, and more importantly, a loss for the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes, the door has been cracked open for the Ducks' season to remain alive. Again, it's not a wide-open path, but it does exist.

If Oregon can take care of business over the next four games — including a huge game against the Buckeyes on the road this week — and the chips fall a certain way, there's a chance that the Ducks can sneak into the Big Ten Championship game at the end of the year, and potentially play their way into the College Football Playoff.

A wild thought, considering where this fanbase was at mentally and emotionally a week ago.

Winning out won't be enough for the Ducks, as they need help from others in the conference during the month of November, particularly the rival USC Trojans. Here's a look at what needs to happen for Oregon to reach the Big Ten title game, and how that could affect its hopes of making the College Football Playoff.

Oregon Must Win Out

Everything that we talk about in this article, all of the reasons for potential optimism in Eugene, none of it is worth a damn if the Ducks don't win the final four games on their schedule. Right now, Oregon sits at 5-3, 3-2 in the Big Ten. In order for them to have a chance at getting into the conference title game, they need a 7-2 conference record so that tie-breakers can trigger. Here's a look at Oregon's remaining schedule:

• Week 10 at No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes

Oregon will likely be favored in the final three games of the year, but they enter the game against the Buckeyes as near double-digit underdogs, despite the fact that Ohio State is expected to start true freshman backup QB Luke Fahey.

If Oregon wins out, it also means that Ohio State suffers at least one more loss, which would mean they could finish at 7-2 in the conference, at best. This is an important note for tiebreaker scenarios.

Oregon Needs Help From USC, Others

Oregon going 4-0 throughout November is only half the battle; the Ducks also need help, and it can come primarily from one of their biggest rivals — the USC Trojans.

At the moment, there are seven teams in the Big Ten with a pair of conference losses: Oregon, USC, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. If the Ducks beat Ohio State, then the Buckeyes would fall into this group as well. There's also one other team that Oregon fans need to hope enters the mix here: Indiana.

That's where the Trojans step in. After a bye in Week 10, USC goes on the road to Bloomington, where they have a chance to knock the defending champs down a peg and introduce some real chaos to the conference, giving the Hoosiers their second Big Ten loss and potentially leaving them at 7-2 alongside the Ducks at the end of the regular season.

How Big Ten Tiebreakers Impact Oregon

There's a situation that would bring the Big Ten's tiebreaking procedures into play, where Oregon could have an important advantage.

The Ducks and Hoosiers do not play each other this season, meaning a two-team tie would be decided by their records against common conference opponents. Assuming Oregon wins out and USC beats Indiana, the Ducks would be undefeated against their five common opponents — Ohio State, USC, Michigan, Nebraska, and Northwestern — while Indiana would have two losses against that group.

Ohio State also factors in here. If the Ducks are able to beat them next week, they would own a tiebreaker over the Buckeyes should both teams end the year at 7-2 in the Big Ten. In fact, if Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State all finish at 7-2, the Ducks could hold the advantage in a three-way tiebreaker based on their record against common conference opponents, assuming no other teams finish with the same record.

Of course, there are other teams to consider. Illinois, in particular, can potentially throw a wrench into the plans for Oregon, as they also have only two losses in the conference and own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ducks. If Illinois wins out, they could upset the balance, but fortunately for Oregon fans, the Illini schedule is not easy: vs. Nebraska, at No. 5 UCLA, vs. No. 21 Iowa, and at No. 23 Northwestern in the final four weeks of the year.

It's worth paying attention to the likes of Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Northwestern down the stretch, as each could finish with two conference losses. Here's a look at their closing schedules:

At least two of those teams will suffer a third conference loss over the next month, and Oregon already owns a head-to-head win over Northwestern, which could prove valuable in a tiebreaker scenario. That would help thin the field of potential contenders, though the Ducks could still find themselves in a complicated multi-team tie if several teams finish with identical conference records.

Meanwhile, UCLA is still the team to beat, sitting at 8-0 and 5-0 in Big Ten play. They already own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Oregon, which would only come into play should they lose twice over the next four games. Here's a look at their final stretch:

An ideal scenario for Oregon would be for UCLA to keep winning and claim one of the two spots in Indianapolis, while the Ducks win out, USC knocks off Indiana, and the remaining two-loss teams also suffer another defeat. That would give Oregon a clear path toward the Big Ten Championship game on December 5, though the exact multi-team tiebreaker would depend entirely on which teams finish tied.

Ideally, Oregon would like USC to knock off Indiana on November 14 before losing to UCLA in the regular-season finale. That would give Indiana its second conference loss while handing USC a third, eliminating the Trojans from a potential 7-2 tiebreaker. If UCLA finishes undefeated, Oregon could then find itself competing with Indiana and Ohio State for the second spot in Indianapolis, a scenario in which the Ducks could hold a valuable tiebreaking advantage.

While there are still plenty of moving pieces, the bottom line is clear: After Saturday's results, Oregon has a realistic path back to Indianapolis, provided it takes care of business throughout November.

Where Oregon Sits in College Football Playoff Pictures

Of course, all of this discussion leads to the larger goal of reaching the College Football Playoff for a third straight season and competing for a national championship. At this point, the goal of earning an at-large bid is nearly out of the question, even if Oregon finishes at 9-3. It would require total and complete chaos to take place in the college football world as a whole, where many of the top 25 teams suffer losses over the coming weeks, leaving those ranked from about No. 6-20 all with three or four losses. Considering how this season has gone thus far, that's not out of the question, but it's also not something to be counted on.

The simple fact is that, at this point, Oregon needs to win the Big Ten title game in order to secure an automatic bid into the playoff, because an at-large bid is unlikely. There's an argument that they could get in at 9-4 should they make the Big Ten title game and lose, but that doesn't feel like a scenario that you want to bank on.