Luka Doncic is the frontrunner to win NBA MVP until proven otherwise, and Kalshi’s NBA MVP market is extremely bullish on that narrative. Kalshi favors Doncic to win the MVP at 36%, with only Victor Wembanyama within striking distance at 31%. 

Doncic came into the season near the top of the board at 13%, sitting behind Wemby, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokic. He quickly took over as the favorite following his explosive start to the season.

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Luka Magic in full effect

In seven games this season, Doncic has been on a tear. He leads the league with 38.3 points, 8.1 assists, and 8 rebounds. He’s also shooting a career-high 49.7% from the field, including 42.7% from deep and a 42.5% usage. He’s missed just one game this season as the Los Angeles Lakers have rolled to a 6-2 start and are in first place in the Pacific Division.

Despite his dominance, Doncic has yet to win an MVP in his nine seasons. He has finished in contention several times, with six top-10 finishes, including four top-5 finishes and one top-3 (2023-24).

Doncic finished with the fourth-most votes last season, behind Shai, Jokic, and Wemby. However, his path this season looks even clearer for one main reason: LeBron James. With LeBron on the Philadelphia 76ers, it leaves Luka as the Lakers' primary ball handler. In games without James last season, Doncic averaged similar numbers to where he is now, with 35.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.4 assists.

The Lakers have great complementary pieces around him in Austin Reaves and Walker Kessler. As long as Doncic remains healthy, it’s his MVP to lose.

Fighting off Wemby

Victor Wembanyama is the only true threat on Kalshi to steal the MVP. He’s made his case with 25.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. The San Antonio Spurs are off to a 5-2 start, including a five-game win streak after falling 0-2 to start the year.

We’ll get a head-to-head look between Luka and Wemby on November 27 when the Lakers take on the Spurs in San Antonio.

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