CLEVELAND — A pivotal ALCS Game 5 that looked on paper like a premium pitchers’ duel dissolved into something much different on Sunday, as the Tampa Bay Rays took down the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 at Progressive Field to move within one win of a World Series berth. While the final score suggests a closely contested ballgame, the tale of the two starting pitchers tells otherwise.

When the AL Cy Young Award is announced next month, it’s a safe bet that Yankees ace Cam Schlittler will take home the honor. Toronto’s Dylan Cease appears to be the likeliest runner-up. Beyond that, both Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen and Guardians rookie lefty Parker Messick have a strong case to be the third finalist, based on their fantastic regular seasons. Rasmussen ranked third in fWAR (5.0) and fourth in ERA (2.67) behind Schlittler and Cease; Messick ranked fourth in fWAR (4.9) and third in ERA (2.56).

These were the starting pitchers for Game 5 on Sunday. Rasmussen had tossed six innings of two-run ball in Game 1 — but in a Rays loss. Messick covered five innings and allowed three runs in Game 2 — but in a Guardians loss. With the series tied at two games apiece, Sunday’s contest gave each frontline arm the tantalizing chance to push his club closer to the American League pennant. 

For neutral observers hoping for maximum October drama, the blueprint for a best-case clash could be found in July, when Rasmussen and Messick traded blows in a 1-0 Rays victory at Tropicana Field. In that one, Messick allowed the lone run across 7 ⅔ innings while Rasmussen yielded just one hit across seven shutout frames. If a similar game were on tap Sunday — this time with supremely elevated stakes — that would mean a timely hit or two would be required to seize a narrow victory. But such visions of a repeat nailbiter enforced by these elite starters were quashed in a hurry.

On Sunday, the Rays exhausted Messick from the get-go, quickly eliminating any chance of a classic postseason pitching showdown. While the standout rookie southpaw’s velocity has sustained this season even as his workload has extended well beyond his previous career highs, his command has notably faltered in recent weeks. Messick struck out Junior Caminero twice with changeups in the first two innings, but that’s about all that went well for the lefty. Although he allowed only one extra-base hit (Yandy Diaz’s double to lead off the game) and two runs, the pesky Rays lineup forced him to throw 31 pitches in the first and 26 in the second, prompting Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt to turn to his bullpen far earlier than planned

A Chandler Simpson leadoff double followed by a Liam Hicks RBI single made it 3-0 Tampa Bay in the third inning against Tim Herrin, the second of six Cleveland hurlers who took the mound in a losing effort Sunday. That was a comfortable enough cushion for Rasmussen, who held up his end of the bargain for those hoping to see some top-notch starting pitching.

Rasmussen’s excellence was on full display in his first start of October, when he carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Yankees in the ALDS, but he was not as sharp six days ago in the series opener against Cleveland. The turning point in Game 1 came when Rays manager Kevin Cash entrusted Rasmussen, at 90 pitches, to tackle the bottom of Cleveland’s order in the seventh inning with a 2-1 lead. Then Guardians catcher Patrick Bailey ambushed a first-pitch cutter and launched it for a game-tying solo shot that spoiled Rasmussen’s solid effort. From there, the Guardians piled on against Tampa Bay’s bullpen en route to a 7-3 victory.

A similar scenario arrived late in Rasmussen’s Game 5 outing. The right-hander had cruised through five scoreless innings without much trouble, but he surrendered a run in the sixth to make it 3-1. The bottom portion of Cleveland’s order was scheduled to hit in the seventh, and Rasmussen had thrown 83 pitches. Cash stuck with his ace again, and this time, he was rewarded.

After Nathaniel Lowe led off with a single, Rasmussen won a seven-pitch battle with Guardians rookie Travis Bazzana that ended in a harmless popout. Then Rasmussen exacted revenge on Bailey for his Game 1 blast, inducing an inning-ending double play to punctuate his outing and complete seven innings of one-run ball. It was a vintage Rasmussen performance, with his three fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter) keeping hitters off-balance and a heavier dose of changeups coaxing whiffs and weak contact all night long.

“It is really fun because there's so much more setting guys up,” Hicks said of working with Rasmussen. “You're thinking along a lot more — it's not just power, where you're just trying to beat the guy with the stuff. I think just with how good our defense is, you really have the trust [that] we don't always need a strikeout.”

Tampa Bay’s terrific Game 5 pitching did not end with Rasmussen. Lefty Cam Booser recorded the first two outs of the eighth before Steven Kwan lined a single to center to bring up José Ramírez as the tying run. Cash called on Tyler Wells to take on Ramírez, and Wells delivered, getting Ramirez to swing through a cutter up and away for an inning-ending strikeout. He pumped his fists and bounced off the mound, knowing he’d completed the bridge to closer Bryan Baker.

"It’s probably the biggest at-bat of my career so far,” Wells reflected afterward. “You don't sit there and take that stuff for granted. You go out there, and you want to compete, and you want to come up big, but you can't force it. You got to go out there and execute pitches. And I was just grateful to be in the game at that time and just try to soak it all in and enjoy it.”

Baker’s save opportunity started with a leadoff walk to DeLauter, but the All-Star right-hander retired the next three batters to finalize the 3-1 victory and push Tampa Bay just one win away from the World Series. Cleveland finished the game without an extra-base hit for the first time this postseason.

The ALCS now shifts back to Tropicana Field for Game 6 on Monday, an unusually quick turnaround after Friday’s rainout eliminated the scheduled travel day on Sunday. The Rays will give the ball to Freddy Peralta, who shined in Game 2 and made a successful (albeit brief) relief appearance in Game 4.

Cleveland is still sorting out its pitching plans, with Vogt saying postgame Sunday that Gavin Williams is not an option to start Monday on short rest after he threw 70 pitches across five innings on Thursday (and his velocity notably dipped in his final inning). The Guardians will need to find a way to force Game 7 if they are to give Williams another chance to add to his fantastic October to date. 

Diaz, the only player on the Rays’ ALCS roster who appeared in the Fall Classic with Tampa Bay back in 2020, sat on the podium Sunday after a three-hit performance and spoke of what lies ahead in no uncertain terms. 

“It's a great opportunity,” Diaz said through interpreter Kevin Vera of being one win away from the World Series. “All of us are thinking of it.

“But it all ends tomorrow. We're going to win tomorrow.”