STARKVILLE — Mississippi State fans may want to look away from the spreadsheets this week.

Every major model points toward a long night in Austin, and the gap between these teams on paper is wider than it has been all season.

Game Information

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns
Kickoff Time: 6:30 p.m. CT
Venue: Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
TV Channel: ESPN
Radio: Bulldogs Sports Network
Series Record: Texas leads 4-2
Betting: Texas (-20.5), O/u: 48.5 total points (FanDuel)

DISCLAIMER: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

FPI sees two different tiers

ESPN’s Football Power Index ranked Texas No. 8 in the country after Week 8, while Mississippi State sat at No. 40. Among SEC teams, only Arkansas at No. 59 and Vanderbilt at No. 68 ranked lower than the Bulldogs, who also trailed Missouri at No. 28 and Auburn at No. 29.

For context, FPI tipped Texas in this matchup long before the season turned. Back in August, the model gave the Longhorns a 95.8% chance to win on Oct. 31, and nothing about the last two months has pushed Mississippi State closer.

ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Texas
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Florida
8. Oklahoma
9. Texas A&M
10. Kentucky
11. South Carolina
12. Missouri
13. Auburn
14. Mississippi State
15. Arkansas
16. Vanderbilt

SP+ finds the real mismatch

Bill Connelly’s SP+ tells a similar story with more detail. Texas ranks eighth overall with a rating of 20.4, while Mississippi State sits 52nd at 6.0, a gap of more than 14 points per game against an average opponent. Those ratings estimate team strength against average competition (they do not guarantee how one particular game will unfold).

Put simply, the matchup that should worry Bulldogs fans is Mississippi State’s offense against the Texas defense. The Bulldogs rank 35th in offensive SP+, which is respectable, but Texas brings the No. 7 defense in the country, allowing an adjusted 14.5 points per game in Connelly’s system.

Flip it around, and the outlook does not get much brighter. Texas owns the No. 16 offense in SP+, and Mississippi State’s defense ranks 68th.

The projections lean toward a blowout

Dimers’ latest published model gives Texas a 93.3% chance to win and projects a 36-15 final. A 21-point margin is a tough number to read for a team that just took Oklahoma to the final minutes, and it shows how much the models trust Texas at home.

The numbers missed two big stories

Curiously, the FPI rankings were set before Mississippi State announced that quarterback Kamario Taylor would need season-ending surgery. Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby explained the decision Wednesday after Taylor underwent the procedure.

“Like we said in the statement, it was something that was a team decision with everybody involved,” Lebby said. “It was the right thing to do. Kamario did everything he could to be able to stay on the field and get back on the field, but it was the right thing.”

The Texas side has its own holes that a model struggles to capture. Edge rusher Colin Simmons and running back Hollywood Smothers sat out the Ole Miss game, and two more starters barely played.

“We essentially played the entire game without Trevor Goosby, and the majority of the game without Cam Coleman,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “And we played the number seven ranked team in the country and won by a touchdown.”

To put it bluntly, the analytics give Mississippi State very little hope. A banged-up Texas roster and a Bulldogs team with nothing to lose are the two variables no spreadsheet can fully price in.

Prediction: Texas 24, Mississippi State 3