Kembali
Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher’s opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don’t always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It’s not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.
Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.
Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson, we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else.
In this space I’m going to look powerfully into total team air yards trends, players seeing plentiful prayer yards, and those who are outperforming their air yards profile and (perhaps) due for the bad kind of regression.
Below are the teams averaging the most total team air yards per game headed into Week 10.
CJ Stroud and the Houston offense, fresh off their bye, poured on the air yards against the Chargers in Week 9. The Texans finished with 470 total team air yards, the most of the week and one of the five highest totals of the 2026 season. They were a cool 11 percent over their expected pass rate; only the Bears were more pass heavy in Week 9.
Your question is the same as mine: Where are these oceans of air yards going in the Houston offense? Well, we know where they’re not going. Nico Collins was sixth among Houston pass catchers with a paltry 33 air yards against the Bolts on Sunday. Collins, who’s been reduced to a part-time player since the Texans acquired Marvin Harrison, Jr. from the Cardinals, ran a route on 76 percent of the team’s drop backs and drew a target on just 13 percent of those routes.
Tank Dell, with a 55 percent route rate against LA, led the way in air yards by a wide margin. Averaging nearly 17 air yards per target, Dell made the most of his four looks from Stroud and had 104 receiving yards. He was targeted on a heady 41 percent of his pass routes. Things appear to be percolating for the injury-cursed Dell, though his route participation will have to jump if he’s going to be a consistent flex option. The air yards richness of the Houston offense should be a boon for him in any case.
Collins’ usage is a problem, maybe a big one if it holds in the coming weeks. Over his past two outings he’s averaging 8.8 air yards per target, way down from the 13.4 air yards per target he saw in the season’s first month. Combine reduced routes with reduced targets and reduced air yards and an explosive WR1 with massive weekly upside turns into something closer to a WR2 without much ceiling at all.
At the risk of overstating data from a two-game sample, it sure looks like Dell is boxing out Collins as Houston’s WR1. Dell in Week 9 saw 39 percent of the team’s first read targets. Collins, meanwhile, had a 17.3 percent first-read target rate. Dell, Collins, and Xavier Hutchinson are tied for the most first-read targets over the Texans’ past two games.
The good news, perhaps, is that Collins and the Texans in Week 10 take on a Cleveland defense allowing the fourth most team air yards per game (337). You have to keep starting Collins in 12-team leagues, unfortunately. Just know that Dell, for now, is the air yards eater in the air yards-rich Texans offense.
Mike McCarthy’s offense was raining air yards manna in the first six weeks of the regular season. It was over those six glorious weeks that the Steelers were top-3 in pass rate over expected and top-10 in total team air yards per game (325).
Since then, the Steelers have shifted to a run-first offense, going under their expected pass rate in both games before their Week 9 bye. Their 206 air yards per game over those two games ranked 28th overall. The Pittsburgh offense saw both a reduction in pass volume and a cratering average depth of target. If that trend holds up in Week 10 and beyond, it’s going to be exceedingly difficult for Steelers pass catchers to have anything resembling upside without high-variance YAC touchdowns.
DK Metcalf, who was born to eat candy and be featured in the Regression Files, dominated air yards over those two run-heavy games, seeing a 53 percent share. A Week 10 date with a pass-funnel Bengals defense could lead to a boost in total air yards for Aaron Rodgers and company. Just be careful how you deploy secondary and tertiary Steelers pass catchers going forward.
Though the G-people aren’t running a ton of plays — and didn’t need to do much on Sunday to beat the Eagles practice squad — JJ McCarthy continues to push the ball downfield and generate plenty of air yards for New York’s pass catchers.
McCarthy, when he wasn’t writhing in pain on the sideline, averaged 10.9 air yards per throw against the Eagles. Since he took over as the Giants’ QB1, the team has the ninth highest average depth of target and the third most total air yards per game (353), behind only our air yards kings (the Packers) and the pointless Cowboys.
I know Malik Nabers had a rough one in Week 9. He still led the Giants with 82 air yards — a 33 percent share — while running almost every route. Nabers’ eight first-read targets constituted a 40 percent share. What I’m saying is that he’ll be OK.
Isaiah Likely, who ranks third among all tight ends in air yards on the season, will continue cooking in this underrated offensive environment. Even a guy like Malachai Fields — who has a 17 percent air yards share since McCarthy took over — could be interesting against the pass-funnel Washington defense in Week 10. Commanders opponents have been over their expected neutral pass rate in seven of eight games in 2026. Expect the Giants to be next.
Below are teams averaging the fewest total team air yards through Week 9.
Here’s what I’ll say about the Eagles’ Joe Milton Experiment (the name of my When In Rome tribute band in college): It was a lot more fun for air yards purposes than the Tanner McKee version of the Philly offense.
The Eagles in Week 9 against the G-people totaled 315 air yards, the ninth highest mark of the week. They had averaged 241 total air yards per game with McKee under center. With the tenth highest pass rate over expected of Week 9, Milton’s air yards spike led to 113 air yards for Darius Cooper (a 43 percent share) and 77 for Makai Lemon, who led the Eagles with eight first-read targets to Cooper’s seven.
I think Cooper can be somewhat interesting as a high variance option if Milton remains at QB for the Eagles. His 90 percent route rate and 13.8 air yards per target offers more upside than you might think.
The Titans, before they headed into their Week 9 bye, were experimenting powerfully with adding some air yards to their zombie-like offense. In the two games before their bye, the Titans averaged 297 air yards per game, the 14th most in the NFL. From Week 1-6, they had averaged 223 air yards per game, the second lowest mark in the league.
There are two things going on with the Titans offense. They’ve been a little pass heavier and they’re running faster. Tennessee, in fact, is now the third fastest pace team, behind the Saints and Panthers. That’s the sort of thing that boosts play volume and drop backs and yes, air yards.
Carnell Tate, struggling through a shoulder injury, should be the main beneficiary here. He had seen 46 percent of the Titans’ air yards before missing Week 8’s loss to the Bengals. There might be air yards left over for Elic Ayomanor to have fleeting deep league value, and the jolt in play volume could be a boon for all-time PPR scam artist Wan’Dale Robinson.
This is the part of Regression Files where I bemoan the lack of fantasy juice in the Denver offense. So it goes.
The Broncos in Week 9 had the 11th most total team air yards. They were 4 percent over their expected pass rate against the Panthers -- the second pass heaviest game of their 2026 season. Jaylen Waddle’s first half injury made Courtland Sutton the unquestioned air yards eater in the Denver offense. Sutton saw 109 air yards against Carolina, or 41 percent of the team’s air yard share. He ended with five grabs for 45 yards and a score.
Sutton over the past month leads the Broncos in air yards, due in part to Waddle’s frequent in-game injuries. As the Denver offense looks powerfully into the forward pass, it could mean a weekly glut of air yards for Sutton, especially if Waddle misses any time. In Week 10, the Broncos take on a moribund Raiders defense giving up the sixth most total air yards per game.
Prayer yards rate: 60 percent
Mitchell is the kind of wideout who’s going to bounce around different parts of Regresion Files depending on what side of variance he found himself on the week prior. Mitchell, as you may know, posted a big, fat zero against Kansas City in Week 9 after going ballistic in Week 8. So it goes.
Accounting for 22 percent of the Jets’ targets and 71 percent of the team’s air yards, Mitchell — who came oh-so-close to two deep grabs against the Chiefs — was WR30 in expected fantasy points last week, right around Makai Lemon and Justin Jefferson. Only seven receivers had more air yards in Week 9.
Mitchell is going to continue driving you mad, but you might want to play him in Week 10 against a Buffalo defense allowing the tenth most fantasy points per game to boundary receivers.
Prayer yards rate: 69 percent
Franklin is (sorta) in play for Week 10 only if Jaylen Waddle (concussion) is held out. The Broncos have eased off the run-first stuff of late. After going 3 percent below their expected pass rate in the first six weeks of the season, the Broncos are 3 percent over their expected pass rate over their past three. Their weekly team air yards have gone from 222 in Week 1-6 to 265 from Week 7-9.
Franklin, meanwhile, has the tenth highest prayer yards rate (unconverted air yards) in the NFL this season. He leads the Denver offense with an average depth of target of nearly 14 yards. If Bo Nix is able to do the impossible and complete a long pass or two, Franklin or the aforementioned Courtland Sutton will probably be the recipients.
Prayer yards rate: 78 percent
Virgil, in case you haven’t heard, is probably the Cardinals’ new WR1 with Michael Wilson (neck) done for the season. Virgil last week against the Seahawks ran about half the routes in the Arizona offense and soaked up 50 percent of the air yards.
His route participation is bound to spike in Week 10 against the Rams. If Carson Beck is brave enough to throw a few downfield shots to the speedy Virgil, he would be somewhat interesting as a volatile WR3/4. Virgil averaged nearly 16 yards per reception in his final two collegiate seasons and had a 45th percentile college dominator rating along with a 59th percentile college target share. I’ve seen worse wideout profiles.
Bullseye rate: 57 percent
Did Waller run hot in Week 9 against the Broncos? Yes, he did. Did he take on an incredibly valuable role in the fantasy-friendly Carolina offense? Also yes.
Waller last week racked up 23 fantasy points, the second most among tight ends. Here’s the thing though: Waller had 20.5 expected fantasy points against Denver, which is particularly crazy since fellow Panthers TE Tommy Tremble had 15 expected points in the same game.
Waller had a halfway decent 57 percent route rate in Week 9 while Tremble ran a route on 46 percent of the Carolina drop backs. Waller took in a gaudy 99 air yards, a 32 percent share, while being targeted on 31 percent of his pass routes. He didn’t exactly come out of nowhere to put up a big stat line; Waller is TE9 in expected tight end fantasy production over the past month, and he leads all tight ends with an 11.5 aDOT.
In a potentially high-scoring back-and-forth matchup against the Saints this week (more on that below), Waller should be in lineups. Even if he cools off he should be viable.
Bullseye rate: 81 percent
Watkins got away with it in Week 9 against the miserable Raiders secondary. With a splendid 37-yard touchdown grab from spreadsheet dominator Brock Purdy, Watkins was WR13 on the week. Not bad.
Here’s what’s actually bad: Watkins was WR35 in expected fantasy points in Week 9, just ahead of teammate Demarcus Robinson, who did next to nothing in his return from injury. Watkins is running a lot of routes with Mike Evans (Achilles) sidelined. Just don’t go benching a proven WR2/3 this week in favor of Watkins in his saliva gland-activating matchup against Dallas.
Bullseye rate: 69 percent
Maybe it goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway: Boutte in Week 9 ran hotter than my laptop when I’m recording a video podcast. Running a route on 33 percent of the Houston drop backs, the big man converted 87 percent of his air yards against the Chargers and had 125 receiving yards and two touchdowns. It was the fun side of a high-variance fantasy option.
Boutte in Week 9 scored a hearty 28.5 fantasy points, the sixth most among wideouts on the week. His expected fantasy production was a slightly more humble 15.5 points. Don’t chase Boutte.
Bullseye rate: 62 percent
Guys with low aDOTs are usually going to have high air yards conversion rates. That’s especially true if they’re catching footballs from an accurate QB. Shakir has both things going for him in 2026. He’s also running just hot enough for me to mention him as a potential negative regression bro.
Since Week 5, Shakir is WR37 in receivers fantasy points per game -- on the WR3 borderline. He’s WR58 in expected fantasy production, however. Shakir over that span is converting 74 percent of his air yards into real-life receiving yards. In Week 10 he gets a Jets defense allowing the 19th highest fantasy points per target to slot pass catchers.
Lawrence has been uber-efficient over the past couple outings in a balanced, slow-paced Jacksonville offense with the sixth fewest total team air yards per game since Week 7. Facing inferior competition, the Jaguars have passed at a 40 percent rate in neutral situations over their past two games. Only Tampa has been more run heavy.
That, in turn, is limiting drop backs and pass attempts for Lawrence. If his efficiency drops off even a little bit in the coming weeks, Lawrence could be a superflex-only option. On the season he ranks 15th among QBs in expected fantasy points per game, just short of Kirk Cousins and Bryce Young. The Jaguars enter Week 10 as massive favorites against the down-bad Titans, another environment that should (severely) limit Lawrence’s opportunity to put up fantasy points for your squad.
I had my unpaid interns double check this one: Ward in QB9 in expected fantasy points per game since Week 7. Ward on the season is QB21 in expected fantasy production. He’s been better — sometimes a lot better — than he was during his apocalyptic rookie campaign in Tennessee.
I mentioned earlier in this column that the Titans offense is getting a tad more fantasy friendly, with more offensive plays and drop backs and air yards. That’s helping to juice Ward’s fantasy prospects enough to make him superflex relevant and somewhat interesting in deeper one-QB formats. Ward, who’s QB14 in EPA per pass attempt since Week 7, is due for a visit from the (positive) Regression Reaper.
A matchup between the league’s two fastest-pace offenses that throw at high rates in almost every situation? Yes please. More please. Both the Saints and Panthers are top-7 in total team air yards per game this season, and both teams sport a top-10 pass rate over expected. Bryce Young and Tyler Shough, in other words, should be locked in to starting lineups this week.
It’s why I think Darren Waller could stay (relatively) hot here, along with the primary Carolina pass catchers. Beyond Chris Olave, this sort of script could be a good thing for Jordyn Tyson, who last week in his first NFL game was targeted on a strong 27 percent of his routes. While his 33 percent route rate wasn’t great, I’d expect that to grow in the coming weeks.
I don’t know if this means much for Juwan Johnson. The formerly great PPR scam has seen his route rate drop in recent weeks, and since Week 6 he’s been targeted on a laughable 7 percent of his pass routes.
The Chargers last week were the first team to go mega run-heavy against Houston this season. Maybe that’s because they stink and want nothing more than to run the clock out on this hellish season. Who could blame them?
Before Week 9, the Texans were a clear pass funnel defense. I’d expect the Browns to go in that direction here. Houston’s total lack of a running game will (likely) continue to force CJ Stroud to drop back as much as any quarterback in the league. A back-and-forth affair would make a bunch of guys fantasy relevant, including the aforementioned Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson, Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, and Harold Fannin, who is, by the way, running pretty dang hot right now.
Kembali
Atas
| Pernyataan Privasi Persyaratan Layanan Kontak |
Perbarui
|
All the best breaking news stories from Apex Football Lite. Optimised for feature phones and low end Android devices, Apex Football Lite helps users with legacy devices and poor network connectivity access the latest football news and live scores. Particularly relevant for breaking football news in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa.