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Week 8 Stock Up, Stock Down: The rearranging of the running back deck chairs

Week 8: It was a week of many, many little changes based on injuries. And then one Lamar Jackson cannonball that absolutely torpedoed several players at once. Well, column spoiled. Let’s talk about it.

▶ Stock Up

Tyler Allgeier, Arizona Cardinals

Forget about the quality of the game. (It was a great game, by the way, with a career-high yardage total and two touchdowns.) The real reason that Allgeier headlines this column is that Jeremiyah Love aggravated his ankle yet again and Bam Knight left the game with a brutal concussion after taking a shoulder to the head from DeMarvion Overshown.

That left Allgeier with zero real competition in the second half for – remember, this was Bijan Robinson’s caddy – basically the first time in his career. James Conner is on injured reserve, and Evan Hull is on the active roster. Neither back would project to keep Allgeier from getting most of the work.

Firing off Allgeier on your waiver wire against the Seahawks next week won’t feel good. Even if he does gather 70 percent of the snaps, it’s not quite an ideal RB2 profile. But in a world with a lot of running back desperation, Allgeier should qualify as startable.

Mike Washington Jr., Las Vegas Raiders

It wasn’t pretty, let’s get that out of the way, but Washington received 25 of 28 running back carries with Ashton Jeanty relegated to the bench in what he said was “communicated to him before the game.” Jeanty essentially became the team’s third-down back.

Washington ran 25 times for 83 yards. That doesn’t sound very good. But I want to point out: It’s more yardage than Jeanty has gained as the everydown back on the ground since Week 1. The only other game higher than Washington’s 3.3 yards per carry here was a 15-carry, 58-yard effort against the Chiefs that wasn’t exactly feeding families.

There’s no way Jeanty will become the team’s third-down back for the remainder of the season, that’s clear. That’s regression so iron-clad that we can’t even cope our way into the idea of it. But Washington will at least be a reasonable play in the short-term, and you know the Raiders are committed to running the ball under Klint Kubiak. This is another situation where the short-term looks murky with games against the 49ers and Seahawks over the next two weeks. It’s still inarguable that Washington saw a stock boost and probably needs to be rostered in 10-team leagues.

Kenny Gainwell, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s easy to discount the idea that a team’s No. 2 back will be valuable. I do it all the time, myself. The problem with doing it in Gainwell’s case is that the two-game sample we have of Baker Mayfield includes “the first game without a completion that resulted in a win since 1974” and “a more normal-feeling 7-of-11 for one touchdown outing that belongs in 1983.” 25 carries and 140 yards later, Gainwell was romping over the Falcons in the mud.

The Buccaneers have developed a new identity, and it is smashmouth running behind a good offensive line. Given how bad things have been when they’ve thrown the ball, it’s simply hard to blame them for taking this route.

Does this mean that Gainwell is going to continue to get 10 carries a game? Again, probably not. Are you excited to roster Gainwell against the Bears next Sunday night? Probably not. But think of his situation a little bit like you’d think of Kyle Monangai’s. The Falcons were 13th in run defense DVOA entering Sunday’s games, and the Panthers were 22nd despite another major blowup against the Bears. It’s a matchups league and Gainwell is going to factor heavily into the discussion when we believe the Buccaneers can run. I’m annoyed to say it, but he belongs on rosters.

Emmet Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs

The week of running back movement continues with aplomb. I don’t think Johnson is suddenly a superstar, but he’s been rosterable all year and him suddenly becoming an easy button receiver – 5/128/1 on five targets, including a 73-yard touchdown – speaks to the fact that he could be a FLEX option going forward as we hit bye weeks.

The Chiefs have not had a stellar No. 3 receiver for a minute, and Xavier Worthy remains only a sideshow despite the window briefly opening up for him. With Rashee Rice back and Travis Kelce non-explosive, it makes plenty of sense to feed Johnson if the Chiefs think he can be this kind of receiver.

It is darkly funny that Johnson, not Cyrus Allen after all the training camp hype, became the first Chiefs rookie to wind up with a 100-yard game as a receiver. I think he’s someone who now simply has to be rostered in all leagues after this one.

▶ Stock Down

Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

They don’t really make a “sorry your franchise quarterback can’t stay healthy” card.

The floors will remain high here, assuming Tyler Huntley isn’t out for the long term and/or the Ravens are able to scrounge up some sort of reasonable backup play. But the ceilings that were swimming through my head after Week 1’s buttkicking of the Colts? They’re gone.

This goes for every other Ravens pass-catcher too. Gone are the days of Ja’Kobi Lane in FLEX Finder. We’re never believing in Mark Andrews even in good matchups, and so on. The Ravens are a run-first team with Henry and will generate some decent volume in good matchups. But Lamar Jackson’s near-instant ruleout and injured reserve placement basically ends their season as fantasy difference-makers barring extreme touchdown variance.

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

We’re long past the part of the season where we needed to be noting that the Colts offense is bad, but Warren has struggled to even provide garbage-time stuff. Sunday’s galling 4/18 effort came on a team-high 10 targets as the Colts threw 30 passes while trying to catch up to the Jaguars. He also was the target on Daniel Jones’ pick-six.

Perhaps some of it is the groin injury that he didn’t play through the last few weeks, but it’s hard to understand where a bump would come from here. Josh Downs requested a trade. Freeing Anthony Richardson would probably lead to much less passing. Daniel Jones has been so bad that it’s hard to envision him making it the rest of the season. Certainly a team that’s already tearing down to the studs wouldn’t mind parting with Keenan Allen if the right offer came about.

All of that leaves me wondering what exactly Warren’s floor now is. He was always connected to the run game under Shane Steichen. If Jonathan Taylor gets traded, will defenses even bother honoring it? I just think the talent floor around him is now so low that it’s going to make fantasy production tough even in ideal circumstances.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Congratulations on the win. Congratulations on your new contract. Your team has made it clear that they simply don’t trust you to throw the ball.

OK, OK, that’s probably a stretch. I’m sure the thumb is having some real impact. I’m sure not having Emeka Egubka has pushed the Buccaneers more towards running than they otherwise would be inclined to be. But if we’re saying that the Buccaneers are a team with a run-first identity now, the quarterback on said team is going to lose a little value.

I don’t think Mayfield will be completely unplayable in superflex leagues – especially with byes – and I don’t think the Buccaneers are going to play every game in a rain storm, but it’s very reasonable to break all ties in the tier against Mayfield until we see this offense actually throw the ball well again.

Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars did not play a normal game, let’s be up front about that, but they did not come out of the bye week emphasizing Hunter as a real option. After a 4/59/1 receiving line as a designer option against the Texans on a season-high nine (lol) offensive snaps, Hunter managed just six offensive snaps and one touch against the Colts.

This isn’t particularly surprising – most of the smoke about Hunter has been that he’s needed badly on defense. But there was some train of thought that Hunter would make major in-roads and become a fantasy option after his latest England Island Game Triumph. Instead, Brian Thomas Jr. somehow caught a touchdown.

Hunter could still become something; Thomas Jr. could be traded, and this was a weird game. But we’re not quite at the point where he needs to be rostered in 12-team leagues or even 14-team leagues right now.

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