The Oklahoma State Cowboys were hoping they would be in a position in which they could control their own destiny and reach the Big 12 Championship game.

Well, the Cowboys (6-3, 4-2 in Big 12) need help. But they also must help themselves with a win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1) on Saturday at 8:30 p.m. (ESPN). Without a win, scenarios don’t matter.

Here are three reasons Oklahoma State will win and three reasons Oklahoma State will lose.

Reasons Oklahoma State Will Win

Drew Mestemaker with another DOMINANT Day vs. Kansas State

🔺22/28 Passing
🔺313 Passing Yards & 4 Passing TDs
🔺1 Rushing TD

Highlights⬇️@CowboyFB pic.twitter.com/fmhyoUrvjC

— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) November 7, 2026

Drew Mestemaker Shines

The redshirt sophomore has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the country. When you have an elite quarterback at the FBS level, he can paper over a lot of issues you have at other places on the team.

The Cowboys have had a good, but not great, defense this season. Mestemaker runs head coach Eric Morris’ version of the Air Raid offense to near-perfection and can insulate the defense from some exposure more weeks.

Mestemaker is closing in on 3,000 yards passing, is first in the country in touchdown passes and has enhanced his chances of being the first quarterback taken in the 2027 NFL Draft. Morris said earlier this week that he's not broaching the topic of the draft until the season is over and Mestemaker said he's not thinking of it either.

But this is exactly the type of game that scouts love to dissect to see if a player who didn't make a single high school start at quarterback can rise to the occasion. If he does so, if he has that sort of Heisman Trophy or NFL Draft kind of game, then the Cowboys will win.

There's ample evidence to show that Mestemaker has the ability. But this may be his biggest test yet.

Defensive Turnovers

Granted, most of the turnovers have come courtesy of cornerback LaDainian Fields, who has six interceptions in his last four games. But the Cowboys had done a better job since the bye week of creating turnovers. Safety Quentin Hammonds had an interception against Kansas State last week. Against UCF, a forced fumble by defensive tackle Jerry Lawson turned the football game in Oklahoma State’s favor.

The Cowboys have a bend but don't break defense. The unit is going to give up yards due to the scheme and in some areas a lack of depth. If linebacker Tate Romney can’t play for a second straight week, that will hurt.

One of the ways that teams can counter being a bend but don't break defense is by creating turnovers. If the Cowboys can force two or more mistakes out of the Red Raiders, then I think they can win.

Avoid Empty Possessions

One thing the Cowboys were good at last week was avoiding empty possessions. The Cowboys got extra possessions because of turnovers — but go back and look at the first half. One OSU possession ended in a pick six, one possession ended in a fumble, and another ended at the end of the half. Otherwise, the Cowboys scored 49 points on seven drives. And they scored quick.

They'll want to hold the ball a little bit longer against Texas Tech, but the point holds. The Cowboys can't afford empty possessions in this game. They can't afford to get inside the 20-yard line and not get points. This will be one of those games where every point matters and the more the Cowboys are able to turn each drive into points the better their chances of winning the game.

If they finish this game 4-for-4 or 5-for-5 in the red zone with touchdowns on those drives, it’s going to be hard for the Cowboys to lose.

Three Reasons Oklahoma State Will Lose

Thomas Castellanos Runs Wild

Thomas Castellanos has changed the complexion of Texas Tech’s offense the past two weeks. The unit was struggling with Will Hammond at quarterback and head coach Joey McGuire had to make a choice — stick with his guy or go with the transfer that they signed out of the portal in August after he received a temporary restraining order that allowed him to play a fifth year of football.

McGuire opted to make the change and Castellanos, who played at Florida State among other schools, has paid immediate dividends. He's rushed for at least 100 yards in each of his last two games, threw for more than 300 yards last week against West Virginia along with five touchdown passes.

If you're trying to find a comparison, he’s as good a runner as West Virginia’s Michael Hawkins and as good a passer as Houston’s Conner Weigman. That’s a dangerous combination. Those two quarterbacks frustrated the Cowboys’ defense earlier this season.

Castellanos blends both and he does it well. If the Cowboys are unable to keep him from having a big game, McGuire’s going to walk out of Stillwater a happy guy.

Caleb Hawkins Gets Shut Down

If you've read my other stories on this site this week then you know that I'm of the belief that Mestemaker is going to have a big game for the Cowboys. But running back Caleb Hawkins needs to be a part of that. I would imagine the McGuire and his defensive staff have focused keenly on Hawkins in the scout this week.

Hawkins enters this game having compiled more than 900 total yards and eight total touchdowns in his last four games. After Morris opted to include Hawkins in the passing game more entering the Houston game it's unlocked something in this offense, a dimension that it didn't have in the first four or five games of the season. Morris waited for the perfect time to unleash it.

But now the Red Raiders have more than enough tape to figure out how best to scheme Hawkins in the pass game. Kansas State had no answer for him last week. But the Red Raiders have tremendous linebackers that can get out in space and make plays and keep up with a player like Hawkins. If Oklahoma State can't get Hawkins unlocked in the passing game, there's a good chance Texas Tech wins this contest.

The Short Yardage Woes

Oklahoma State’s offense has had problems in the red zone and in short yardage this season. The red zone problem seemed to have been alleviated, and I think using Hawkins in the passing game has helped with that. It's given them another option in the red zone.

But the Cowboys are still having issues in short-yardage situations, and this is an area where the Red Raiders could really do some damage. Texas Tech has a tremendous defensive lineman inside named A.J. Holmes, a 300-pounder who's great at rushing the quarterback and can collapse the backfield in the run game.

The Cowboys are going to have to get creative with how to handle these short-yardage plays with him in the middle. If they can't move the football on those third-and-short situations, then they won’t go for it on fourth-and-short unless than yave to. It positions the Red Raiders to flip the field more often than the Cowboys want and could lead to a Texas Tech win.