Blue Jay fans won't need to track private planes next week for Tarik Skubal's flight to Toronto.

Unlike when Shohei Ohtani was supposedly on a private plane en route from California to Toronto, this time the Blue Jays brass will be flying from Toronto to California to meet with the winter's premier free agent.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post (subscription required) reported this morning that the Blue Jays have emerged as a suitor for Skubal and are expected to meet with him in California next week. The Mets, Dodgers, and Padres are also expected to meet with Skubal, along with a couple of 'mystery teams'.

Always watch out for the mystery teams. They are stealthy like that.

Last year, Toronto was runner-up in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes (probably a good thing in hindsight). So can they land the biggest free agent on the market, or will they always be groomsmen, never the groom?

The Blue Jays will face off against baseball's highest rollers, the Mets and Dodgers. Most insiders have them on the outside looking in, with the Mets and Dodgers frequently cited as favorites, and reports that Skubal prefers the West Coast, where he grew up.

So how does Toronto land him? And if there is ultimately a salary cap, is it worth breaking the bank on a pitcher who turns 30 next week and has had three major elbow surgeries, including Tommy John surgery in 2017, flexor tendon surgery in 2022, and the nanoscope surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow in 2026, which has been nicknamed the 'Skubal Scope'.

And they will have to break the bank on Skubal, represented by Scott Boras.

What Will It Take to Sign Skubal?

ESPN surveyed 27 insiders, who projected that Skubal would sign an 8-year deal worth $355M. 16 of the 27 projected a deal worth between $300M and $400M.

The short answer to whether they break the bank is yes. Every pitcher ever born is an injury risk, and Skubal is no exception, but he has also been the best pitcher in baseball over the past three seasons, bar none.

Performance risk increases in the outer years of an eight-year contract, but free-agent aces don't grow on maple trees. The next pitcher with Skubal's resume to hit free agency won't be until Paul Skenes becomes a free agent after the 2029 season. The top pitcher slated to be a free agent next offseason is Logan Gilbert, who is good, but not Skubal.

Pairing him with Dylan Cease would give the Blue Jays the best one-two punch in baseball. A rotation of Skubal and Cease and Canadian Geese could win in the playoffs.

How Toronto Helps Their Odds of Landing Skubal

The Blue Jays are long shots at this point, but could help their odds by focusing on three things:

1) Money

Money doesn't just talk to a Scott Boras client; it screams. If Skubal prefers the West Coast and/or a known commodity with the Dodgers, the Blue Jays' easiest path to landing him is to offer the most money.

Toronto has money to spend. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com noted in an early September article that Toronto's 2026 payroll was around $275M, and they had roughly $195M in commitments on the books for 2027, leaving them $80M to spend to match the 2026 payroll. They could sign both Skubal and a hitter like Seiya Suzuki to improve the offense and still have money left to shop for free agent sluggers like Brandon Lowe or bullpen help like Emilio Pagan.

2) A good clubhouse

Toronto has an interesting connection to Skubal. Skubal and Blue Jays pitcher Bowden Francis have been training together at the Apex Performance facility in Arizona, playing catch and spotting each other in gym sessions.

As in any line of work, players talk, and if Francis and others have good things to say about the clubhouse, it would carry weight. Speaking of weight, perhaps Francis can just refuse to lift the bar when spotting Skubal's bench press until he signs.

He would, after all, be joining a strong group of starters.

3) Organizational stability in the front office and on the field

The Blue Jays are a stable, well-run organization under Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins. I know fans sometimes question that, but they are certainly more stable and better led than the Mets and could use that advantage if the Mets are their primary competition.

Toronto also has a very well-respected pitching coach in Pete Walker, who has been in the role since 2012 and is praised for helping pitchers make small adjustments rather than mechanical overhauls, which could appeal to Skubal.

Cease's improvements with the Blue Jays could be attractive to Skubal, though he is starting from an even loftier perch, and Walker can point to success stories like Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman for helping veteran pitchers improve with the Blue Jays.

Cease was also a Scott Boras client, and after Cease signed last winter, Boras cited the Blue Jays' willingness to listen to players on amenities, medical and training routines, and technology for player development as an important part of Cease signing with Toronto, so Skubal being a Boras client might actually help the Blue Jays.