Major League Baseball has released its list of finalists for the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year. Unsurprisingly, Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt was one of the three finalists. The other two rookies on the list include Reds infielder Sal Stewart and Mets outfielder Carson Benge.

The award was voted on by a member of each of the 30 chapters of the Baseball Writers Association of America. With the introduction of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, there are stakes for all 30 MLB organizations in the Rookie of the Year race. The Cardinals are a team that could benefit from that, depending on where Wetherholt finishes.

It does not matter that Wetherholt signed an eight-year extension shortly after his debut. Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodríguez still qualified for rewards even after signing similar extensions in previous seasons. If he wins the award, the Cardinals will gain a pick at the end of the first round.

Will JJ Wetherholt Win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year?

This actually may be a very difficult Rookie of the Year race to project. There's no clear frontrunner, as both Wetherholt and Benge both accumulated at least 4.0 WAR on both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs' leaderboard.

Wetherholt, 24, made his widely anticipated debut on Opening Day. He turned in perhaps the best rookie season of the National League class, in terms of WAR. He slashed .242/.339/.365 with 17 home runs, a 102 OPS+, and 4.5 bWAR. Combined with excellent second base defense and baserunning, he turned a league-average bat into a future All-Star profile.

However, the gap between him and Benge is very small. Benge has the best offensive profile, leading the trio with a 118 wRC+. He has a 20-homer and 20-steal season on his resume, plus strong right field defense. He was named a Gold Glove finalist, like Wetherholt, before losing the award to the Diamondbacks' Corbin Carroll.

On top of that, there may be voters who look strictly at the offensive numbers for Stewart. The Reds rookie hit 32 homers, drove in 112 runs, and added 15 stolen bases. The question will be how much defense comes into the equation, since the other two finalists were in Gold Glove consideration.

It's a situation where value could play a role in the decision. Wetherholt is certainly the strongest defender and baserunner while playing an up-the-middle position. Those run values away from the plate certainly favor the Cardinals' second baseman.

There will be a split ballot and it will come down to gets the most first and second place votes in the race. It might be a case where Benge edges out Wetherholt for first place.

Could the Cardinals Still Gain a PPI Pick With JJ Wetherholt?

Assuming Wetherholt doesn't win Rookie of the Year, he is still eligible for rewards. In fact, there may be a path for him to become an MVP finalist. Brice Turang, a similar player, put together a 7.3 bWAR season and was named a finalist in 2026.

The Cardinals can still gain a PPI pick if Wetherholt is an MVP finalist before he reaches three years of service time. St. Louis only has to look at their cross-state rivals for that example, as Bobby Witt Jr. accomplished that in 2024.

Looking at Turang's example, Wetherholt will need to be a Gold-Glove defender, an elite baserunner, and put together at least a 120 OPS+. He already has two-thirds of that equation down pat, as he was worth +12 fielding runs and +3 baserunning runs on Baseball-Reference. If he can put together a season of +20 batting runs and +20 defense, there's a chance he could sneak into the race.

However, if Wetherholt doesn't net a PPI pick, the Cardinals still win because of the team-friendly extension. He's locked up to an eight-year, $112.5 million extension, which will keep him in St. Louis through the 2034 season. Combined with shortstop Masyn Winn, the Cardinals have one of the best double-play combos in all of baseball.