Texas heads up to Columbia, Missouri this Saturday to take on the 6-2 Tigers. If the Longhorns are going to make the CFP, they likely need a win. Missouri has taken two losses to the two teams Texas just beat, but both games were on the road. When at home, the Tigers have been an elite team, including dominating the Florida Gators. If Texas is going to give Missouri just their fourth home loss in the last 3 seasons, they’ll need to win certain critical matchups. 

Here are the four matchups that’ll decide if Texas’ CFP hopes are alive on Saturday night:

Will Muschamp vs. Austin Simmons 

This is where Texas has dominated this season. Austin Simmons has been one of the biggest risers this season, sporting a 16-2 TD-INT ratio and nearing 2,000 yards passing. However, it’s fair to say Muschamp and this defense will be the stiffest challenge to date. If Muschamp can force Simmons to be uncomfortable, they can possibly take advantage of his inaccuracy. Given the offensive struggles, Texas might need to steal a possession or two from Simmons and the Tigers. 

Texas OL vs. Missouri Front Seven

This is the matchup that’ll decide the game. The Texas OL performed terrible against Mississippi State, giving up 6 sacks for the second time this season(Tennessee). Missouri’s front seven is strong, sporting a top 25 rush defense and has collected 19 sacks this season thus far. Daden Hopkins is the budding superstar on the defensive line but the linebackers is where Missouri’s defense is special. Nicholas Rodriguez and Robert Woodyard Jr. is one of the best LB duos in the sport and the Texas OL will have to handle them if they’re going to win on Saturday. 

Texas DL vs. Missouri OL 

Whether Colin Simmons plays or not, this is an area Texas should have an advantage. While the Missouri run game has been strong this season, they struggled against an Ole Miss DL that’s very comparable to Texas’ unit. The Longhorns front has done nothing but shut down the run game all season, leaving nearly every offense one-dimensional. They’ll have to do that in this game because Jamal Roberts can take over the way Jadan Baugh did in the Florida game. 

Texas WRs vs. Missouri Secondary 

This should be another matchup that leans Texas’ direction. Now, the injuries to Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are cause for concern but it seems at least one will play. Missouri’s pass defense ranks 94th in the country, giving up 226.9 yards per game through the air. There should be openings for Arch Manning and if he’s given time, it has a chance to be a strong day through the air for Texas. 

Arch Manning vs. The Blitz 

This is the matchup that might decide if Texas makes the CFP. Florida and Ole Miss felt fully comfortable attacking Manning and leaving this secondary to handle the wide receivers, knowing Manning was likely to make a mistake or two. If Manning, like he did largely against Mississippi State, avoids mistakes and is accurate, it’ll give the Texas offense a chance to breathe. If he can’t, there is little chance this offense finds any rhythm on Saturday, much less down the stretch of this season.