We had a pretty solid week this week, hitting on six of our top-ten picks and 13 of our top 16. Of course, the consensus rankings did just as well, so this was just a good week for defense predictions.

Part of that is because the better defenses delivered. The Bucs, Bears, Rams, and Seahawks all finished inside the top 11 defenses on the week. The trendy streamers, like the Bills and Chiefs, also stepped up in above-average matchups. It’s another reminder that matchups play a major role, but good defenses should not be ignored just because of hard matchups. We’re also seeing that the Patriots and Eagles are no longer offenses we need to avoid and could even be targets after injuries have decimated those units.

However, for another week, the top defense was a surprise. In Weeks 4 through 8, the top-scoring defense in fantasy was consensus-ranked outside of the top 23rd each time, but they finished atop the leaderboard usually off of one play. Like the Giants’ last-play pick-six, the Titans’ blocked-punt TD, and the Bills after Lamar Jackson went down with an injury. This week, the 49ers were not a top 10 defense on most rankings but also weren’t ranked outside of the top 20, so I guess we’re getting closer.

However, the most important lesson I learned this week was that my rankings valued pressure rate too much. Logically, it made sense to me. Pressure leads to sacks, but it also leads to forced mistakes from hurried throws or hits. However, the data shows something different. A good pressure rate doesn’t always lead to a positive sack rate for a defense. Pressure rate also did not correlate with fantasy points scored by a defense. So, in response to that, I tested a few other pressure metrics and found that sack rate (not total sacks) was a good predictor of fantasy points scored. As a result, I’ve swapped that into my model instead of using pressure rate.

2026 SEASON SUCCESS RATE

*Consensus Rankings are taken from FantasyPros Consensus Rankings around 10 am on Sundays. For Week 1 only this season, I used a combination of ClutchPoints and RotoBaller.

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” Yet, when I did a deep dive this offseason, I discovered that the stats most commonly associated with top-10 fantasy defenses were first-down allowed, points per game allowed, and third-down conversion rate allowed. So even though I love defenses who get pressure, defenses who can also get off the field quickly tend to be the best fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isn’t a shock, but maybe we’re not really paying attention to the relevant stats when predicting fantasy defensive performance.

The next four most predictive defensive stats were pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and explosive play rate allowed (plays over 20+ yards). With that in mind, I decided to update my Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula to include just these seven stats. I doubled the weight of the first three stats, which are more predictive, and have a single weight for the other four stats. I also incorporate Vegas’ implied team total in the algorithm every week, and when we get opponent stats, I will include fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses as part of the equation since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points.

I’ll obviously have to adjust the algorithm each week for injuries or weather, but I try not to rely too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

Jaguars are coming off a weekend as one of the top defenses in fantasy football, and they’re right back up there again. Jacksonville is 2nd in the league in points allowed per game, 3rd in turnover rate, and 6th in third-down conversion rate. They get to face a Titans offense that has the third-lowest implied team total at 18.5 points, and will do so with a revamped defense after trading for Jesse Bates and Davon Godchaux on Monday. Who knows how acclimated those two will be by Sunday, but they’ll be on the field, and there are some Titans players (Tony Pollard?) who might not be after the deadline, so I like the Jaguars spot this week.

Myles Garrett was back for the Rams on Sunday and chalked up three sacks, so, you know, he looks pretty good again. On the season, the Rams are 4th in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in explosive rate allowed, 7th in first downs allowed per game, and 8th in points allowed. Their issue has been pressure, but Garrett takes care of that. The Cardinals’ implied total is 18, which is the fourth lowest on the slate. It seems like Gardner Minshew is set to miss this game with an injury, which means we’re going to get Carson Beck‘s first NFL start going up against that Rams defensive line. You have to like that.

The Ravens are here strictly for matchup, but what a matchup it is. This season, the Ravens are an average defense, ranking 12^th in explosive play rate and 15^th in third-down conversion rate, but they are averaging just 3.3 fantasy points per game over the last 6 weeks. I think much of that has to do with poor QB play, and the trade for Jacoby Brissett should help with that. The matchup against the Chargers is also a really good one. The Chargers have the 2^nd-lowest implied team total on the slate at 16.5 points. They are 2^nd-worst in the NFL in turnover rate and 2^nd-worst in the NFL in sack rate allowed. Ladd McConkey continues to battle back issues, and the Chargers running game is inefficient, so this is a tremendous spot for the Ravens defense.

The Packers are going to be ranked highly because the Vikings looked awful on Monday night; however, I think Kyler Murray will be back under center, or the Vikings will make a trade. That won’t make the offense explosive, but it also won’t make them a dumpster fire. Either way, the Packers should be a solid play. On the season, they are 2nd in the NFL in turnover rate, 7th in explosive rate, and 11th in points allowed. Over the last six weeks, they are second in fantasy points per game at 10.7, and there’s a chance they get Micah Parsons back for this weekend.

The Texans delivered against those Chargers this past Sunday, but we’re going to fire them up against the Browns too, regardless of whether it’s Deshaun Watson or Sheduer Sanders at quarterback for Cleveland. On the season, Houston ranks 2nd in sack rate, 12th in first downs allowed per game, 13th in third-down conversion rate, and they’re 11th in fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. Their pressure rate is going to be a problem for a Browns offense that has the highest sack rate allowed in the NFL. The Browns don’t turn the ball over, but the Texans’ main weakness as a defense is that they give up explosive plays, and I just can’t see the Browns hitting on many.

The Seahawks have been one of the most reliable defenses all season, and that shouldn’t change now. On the season, they are 1st in explosive rate allowed, 2nd in first downs allowed per game, 3rd in third-down conversion rate, and 4th in points allowed per game. On the other side, the Raiders have an implied total of 20 points and a turnover rate of 11.3% that is below average. It’s not a slam dunk matchup, but it’s a good one for an elite defense, and that works for me.

The Vikings remain the best defense in football. Monday night was their worst performance of the year, and they allowed 23 points to the Bills while still scoring 7 fantasy points. On the season, they are 1st in the league in points per game, 1st in sack rate, 2nd in first downs allowed per game, 3rd in third-down conversion rate, and 5th in explosive play rate. They are my model’s top-ranked defense by a lot, and I’m going to trust them in pretty much any matchup.

On the season, the Giants rank 9^th in first downs allowed per game, 11^th in third-down conversion rate, and 12^th in points per game allowed. Over the last six weeks, they are 13^th in fantasy points per game, and are going up against a Commanders team that has an implied team total of just 19.5 points. The Commanders don’t turn the ball over a lot, but they have not been an explosive offense since Terry McLaurin got hurt. If they’re not going to push the ball down the field, that’s going to help a Giants defense that has a budding star in Arvell Reese, who had 3 sacks on Sunday. Since the Commanders rank 20^th in the NFL in sack rate allowed, Reese and the Giants could be in the backfield again this week.

Two bad defenses going up against two bad offenses when the Colts and Dolphins face off against each other. So how much can we trust these defenses? The Colts are 5th in third-down conversion rate and 10th in first downs allowed per game but are 30th in points per game allowed and 31st in turnover rate. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 13th in first downs and 16th in explosive rate but don’t have as many major weaknesses since they’re 29th in third-down conversion rate. However, Vegas has the Colts as the favorites right now, with the Dolphins having an implied team total of 19.5 to the Colts’ 21. The Dolphins offense has also been more giving in fantasy, ranking 29th in sack rate allowed and 29th in offensive turnover rate. The Colts defense isn’t great, but they were competent enough this weekend and scored 7 fantasy points against a good Dallas offense, so I think they can sneak into the top 10 here against the Dolphins.

We added the Bills as a streamer against the Vikings and should probably hold onto them against the Jets. On the season, the Bills are 7th in turnover rate, 13th in third-down conversion rate, and 16th in points per game allowed. Over the last six weeks, the Bills are also 11th in fantasy points per game at 7.2. Meanwhile, the Jets have the 9th-lowest implied team total at 21 points and have the fifth-worst sack rate allowed in the NFL. That’s good news for Greg Rousseau and this defense, and Geno Smith has struggled this season when forced to play catch-up, which he should be doing on Sunday.

There was a time when I was fading anybody who went up against the Falcons offense, but those days seem long gone. Michael Penix has not looked great lately, but he tends to look worse when he’s under pressure, and the Chiefs are just 31st in sack rate on the season. However, Kansas City is also third in points per game allowed, 6th in explosive play rate allowed, and 10th in third-conversion rate. It’s a solid overall defense going up against a Falcons team that is the 5th-most turnover-prone offense in the league and has an implied team total of 21 points this week. That makes KC a fringe top-ten defense.

Thursday night games tend to be weird, but I have both defenses as playable this week. The Commanders are 9th in explosive rate allowed, 10th in turnover rate, and have the 14th-most fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. The Giants are not an easy matchup, but they are 16th in turnover rate and 26th in sack rate, so the Commanders can get pressure on the quarterback here. In part because the quarterback may be Jamies Winston after J.J. McCarthy suffered an injury on Sunday. That could make this a bit more of an enticing spot

It’s hard to get excited about playing the Chargers, but they are 7th in third-down conversion rate and 14th in turnover rate, so they do some things well. This is more about matchup. It’ll be Jacoby Brissett at quarterback for the Ravens, but we saw him playing pretty mediocre quarterback in Arizona. The Ravens have an implied team total of 22 points and are 24th in the NFL in sack rate allowed, and that’s with far more mobile quarterbacks under center than Brissett. I don’t like playing the Chargers, but I can see it this week.

The Browns are a solid defense, but I can’t get behind this matchup. On the season, the Browns are 6th in the league in sack rate, 13th in points per game, and 14th in first downs allowed per game. However, they are also 27th in explosive play rate allowed, and this Texans passing attack can hit on big plays. The Texans are just 10th in sack rate allowed, and their offense has really turned around after they realized that they can’t run the ball. Houston has an implied team total of 22 points and the best turnover rate in the NFL, so I don’t love this matchup for the Browns.

It’s the second week we’re fading the Bengals relative to consensus, but it’s also the second week they are ranked as a top 10 defense, and I don’t believe they should be. The Bengals are 4^th in the NFL in turnover rate and also top 10 in sack rate, but the Steelers are 11^th in the NFL in turnover rate, so they’re not a sloppy offense. The Steelers will be coming off a bye and have an implied team total of 22.5 points. All signs point to this being a middle-of-the-pack matchup for the Bengals and not a smash spot. Considering the Bengals are averaging just 6 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and are in an average matchup, I expect about an average finish.

Defenses ranked this low may be intriguing, but I can’t consider playing them outside of the deepest formats.

People are going to want to play the Lions because A.J. Brown could be out for the Patriots, and it seems that Rhamondre Stevenson will miss this game with a knee injury, but I just can’t do it. The Lions are 8th in the league in sack rate, but they are 17th in points per game allowed, and rank between 23rd and 29th in every other category I use. The Patriots do give up the most turnovers in the league, but they’re also an average offensive line and have an implied team total of 24.5 points, which is an above-average mark this week. I just see this being a bit more of a shootout than anything.

As always, I can’t recommend playing any defense that you see here in Tier 5.