Kimi Antonelli is on the cusp of becoming Formula 1’s youngest-ever world champion and looks set to claim the 2026 drivers’ title at the Mexican Grand Prix.

The 20-year-old has made a mockery of the pre-season predictions which put his Mercedes teammate George Russell as the title favourite, with nine grand prix victories and 15 podiums in total.

After his win in Austin, Antonelli currently has a 123-point lead over Russell with five rounds (and no sprint races) remaining this season, assuming F1 fulfils its end-of-season schedule with Qatar and Abu Dhabi. If those races can’t take place due to the conflict in the Middle East, a one-off round would conclude the campaign in Imola.

Antonelli is also aiming to become the sport’s youngest world champion in its 76-year history. The current holder of this accolade is Sebastian Vettel, who won his first championship in 2010 at 23 years and 134 days. The Italian would also become only the third-ever driver – after Lewis Hamilton and Jacques Villeneuve – to win the championship in just his second season.

Ninth or higher will guarantee the title

Antonelli has a 123-point lead over second-placed Russell and a 124-point lead over Hamilton, with 125 points left on the table this season. After this round in Mexico City, there will be 100 points left to play for.

As such, to win the title in Mexico City, Antonelli only needs to finish ninth or higher in Sunday’s race.

Ninth would give him two points and while Russell could win the race and be 100 points behind, the Briton cannot catch the Italian’s race wins tally for the season, which is the tiebreaker if scores are level.

However, even if Antonelli retires or finishes outside the top-10, he could still pick up the title. At a minimum, Russell or Hamilton need to win the grand prix to stretch the title race to Brazil next week.

Top-10 - Driver standings ahead of Mexico City Grand Prix

1. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) - 365 points

2. George Russell (Mercedes) - 242 points

3. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) - 241 points

4. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - 236 points

5. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - 233 points

6. Lando Norris (McLaren) - 211 points

7. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) - 144 points

8. Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls) - 105 points

9. Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls) - 77 points

10. Pierre Gasly (Alpine) - 42 points