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Tomorrow's Top 25 Today: UCLA surges into the top 10, Virginia dominates Arkansas for big statement win

What will college basketball's AP Top 25 look like on Monday? Here are our predictions after a week featuring a few consequential ranked-on-ranked matchups

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The first week of the 2026-27 college basketball regular season has come and gone. When the next AP Top 25 poll is released on Monday, the top four will remain the same. Florida, Duke, Illinois and UConn all went 2-0 this week, which included the No. 1 Gators picking up a statement win over in-state foe No. 14 Miami and the No. 4 Huskies defeating No. 16 Michigan in a rematch of last season's national title game.

Hours after Florida picked up an opening-night win over Miami, one of the first big upsets occurred in Las Vegas when UCLA defeated former Pac-12 rival Arizona. The Bruins were ranked No. 22 in the preseason poll and should receive a healthy boost in the rankings after beating a top-five team. Meanwhile, Arizona shouldn't be punished much in the rankings for a quality loss and should remain somewhere in the top 10.

Days later, UConn made a statement in Boston with a win over Michigan behind a huge performance from its starting backcourt of Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins. UConn will remain at No. 4 in the poll this week, but it's clear to see why Dan Hurley's squad should be considered a Tier 1 title contender this season after that performance.

Rare opening-week title game rematch doubles as a familiar warning: UConn is yet again a national title threat

Matt Norlander

Rare opening-week title game rematch doubles as a familiar warning: UConn is yet again a national title threat

The other big-time matchup on the slate this week saw No. 9 Virginia defeat No. 12 Arkansas on Sunday. The Cavaliers should move up a few spots in the polls on Monday after the impressive win.

Here is how we project the rest of the poll to look on Monday. The lone team projected to drop out of the poll: Iowa State.

1. Florida

Florida showed why it deserved to open the season No. 1 after recording a statement win over Miami. The Gators have the best frontcourt in college basketball. The next test? A matchup on the road against another in-state foe: Florida State. Last week: 1

2. Duke

Duke's margin of victory combined in its wins over Army and Coastal Carolina: 95. The schedule does get significantly tougher with a matchup against Michigan State in the Champions Classic on Tuesday. A week after that, Duke faces Illinois. Last week: 2

3. Illinois

Illinois put up 120 points in a season-opening win over Fairleigh Dickinson and followed it up with a 112-point outburst against Penn. The Fighting Illini project as one of the top offenses in college basketball once again. The scary part? All-American forward David Mirković hasn't even played yet. Last week: 3

4. UConn

UConn took care of business and made a statement with a win over reigning national champion Michigan in Boston. The Huskies have one of the best backcourts in the country and showed why they're a Tier 1 title contender this season. Last week: 4

5. Michigan State

Jeremy Fears Jr. began his national player of the year campaign by posting 13 points and 11 assists in a blowout win over Quinnipiac. He followed it up by nearly recording another double-double (12 points, nine assists) in a win over Toledo. Sparty will be tested against a deep Duke roster next week in Chicago. Last week: 6

6. Texas

Texas improved to 2-0 with a blowout win over Chicago State. The Longhorns won't be tested until they have an interesting showdown against Baylor next weekend. For now, all is good with Sean Miller's squad. Last week: 7

7. Virginia

Virginia made a statement on Sunday with a 91-72 win over No. 12 Arkansas, with four different players finishing in double figures. The Cavaliers will get a slight boost in the polls on Monday. Last week: 9

8. UCLA

UCLA should receive a huge jump in the rankings after defeating No. 5 Arizona 84-75, followed by a blowout win over North Florida. In the win over North Florida, star freshman Nikola Kusturica had his coming-out party by recording 29 points, six rebounds, three assists, and two blocks. He is only 17 years old but plays well beyond his years. Last week: 22

9. Arizona

Despite losing its opener to UCLA, we project Arizona to remain in the top 10. The Wildcats bounced back after their loss to UCLA by defeating Cal Poly for their first win of the season. Motiejus Krivas dominated in the win over Cal Poly and scored 30 points. Last week: 5

10. Tennessee

It's hard to draw any definite conclusions about Tennessee after beating Wofford 90-59. While it's possible the Vols just stay at No. 8, I'm projecting that UCLA jumps them in the poll and Arizona slides right in front. Tennessee won't be tested until it faces Michigan State on Nov. 17. Last week: 8

11. Houston

Houston opened the season with a convincing win over La Salle and is in action on Sunday night against Cal. Last week: 10

12. Louisville

Louisville is 2-0 after picking up a 50-point win over Morehead State. Five-star freshman Obinna Ekezie Jr. was impressive in that game and finished with 20 points and 12 rebounds. Last week: 11

13. Gonzaga

Gonzaga opened the season with an impressive win over Purdue and followed it up with a 41-point win over New Mexico State. The Bulldogs likely will remain at No. 15 on Monday. Last week: 15

14. Arkansas

After losing to Virginia on Sunday, Arkansas is projected to drop a few spots. However, the Razorbacks won't be punished for losing to a top 10 team. Last week: 12

15. St. John's

St. John's took care of business against Iona on Sunday, moving to 2-0. That game was a homecoming of sorts for Rick Pitino, who coached Iona before taking the St. John's job in 2023. Last week: 13

16. Kansas

Trey Kaufman-Renn got his first start in a Kansas uniform against Middle Tennessee and finished with 17 points in 18 minutes. The Jayhawks have a huge showdown upcoming against Kentucky in the Champions Classic. Last week: 17

17. Texas Tech

Texas Tech improved to 2-0 with wins over Jackson State and Bethune. The real test will come against No. 3 Illinois at home on Tuesday. If the Red Raiders win that game, they will almost certainly jump into the top 10. Last week: 19

18. Miami

Miami should take away lessons from its loss to No. 1 Florida on opening night. The Hurricanes are still a very good team that will be dangerous in ACC play. A loss to the top-ranked team in the country should see Miami drop only a handful of spots. Last week: 14

19. Alabama

Alabama scored 197 points during its first two games of the season against Sam Houston and Arkansas State, which should come as no surprise because Nate Oats-led teams always have an elite offense. Star wing Amari Allen posted the fifth triple-double (16/13/11) in Alabama basketball history during its win over Arkansas State. Last week: 20

20. Michigan

Michigan couldn't buy a bucket when it needed one against UConn. The Wolverines shot poorly from the 3-point line in each of its first two games. That was one of the Wolverines' strengths last season. Still, a loss to No. 4 UConn shouldn't keep Michigan out of the rankings this week. Last week: 16

21. USC

USC opened the season with a blowout win over Milwaukee and is in action late Sunday night against Wichita State. Last week: 21

22. Kentucky

Kentucky got a scare on Friday when James Madison proceeded to knock down 15 3-pointers during the Wildcats' 89-80 win. All is good for now for Mark Pope's team, but a matchup against Kansas looms. Last week: 23

23. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt improved to 2-0 after recording a 23-point win over Wake Forest at home. Star guard Tyler Tanner recorded a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds. The Commodores have an intriguing matchup against Memphis coming up. Last week: 24

24. BYU

BYU went 2-0 during the opening week, which included an 11-point win over Ohio State in Salt Lake City. The Cougars are primed to have one of the best offenses in the country this season, led by veteran guard Robert Wright III. Last week: 25

25. Saint Louis

Welcome to the party, Saint Louis. Saint Louis improved to 2-0 after defeating Missouri 90-84 on Friday. Missouri was the team that received the most votes that wasn't ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 poll. I'm projecting that the voters will include Saint Louis after a solid win over the Tigers. This is clearly a top 25 team. Last week: NR

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