Kalshi’s NFL MVP market has seen a major shakeup, with Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy heading in different directions. The two are tied at a 17% chance to win the MVP. That is the second-highest price on the board behind Josh Allen.

Burrow’s price is up 12% since mid-October, while Purdy's is down 14%. A $10 trade on either of them winning the MVP at 17% profits $45.58.

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Burrow jumping into contention

Over his last two games, Joe Burrow has strengthened his case to win the MVP, throwing for 190 yards and four touchdowns in Week 5 and 292 yards and four touchdowns in Week 7. He completed over 71% of his passes in both games while leading the Cincinnati Bengals to two straight wins.

The stretch lifts Burrow to 1,653 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions with a 77.2 QBR. His 15 touchdowns are second in the league.

Burrow is no stranger to the MVP race. He’s finished top-5 in votes twice in his career, in 2022 and 2024. At the rate he’s going, he’s on pace for more than 4,600 yards and 42+ touchdowns.

Purdy takes a step back

What goes up must come down. That is the perfect way to describe Purdy’s MVP price as of late, after sitting as high as 30%. Like Burrow, Purdy’s price adjustment came in his last two games, with his play slipping. 

He went for 264 yards and one touchdown in Week 6 in a 23-17 win over the Washington Commanders. In Week 7, he threw for 288 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in a 29-20 loss on the road to the Atlanta Falcons. That was the Niners' first loss of the season.

Injuries to the receiving corps, notably Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel (both out last week), have contributed to Purdy’s skid. 

Through Week 7, Purdy has 1,748 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 79.6 QBR. The Niners are on a bye in Week 8 before taking on the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9.

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