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Now that we are halfway through the 2026 NFL season, it's time to start paying attention to the playoff picture -- and it's a pretty wild picture to look at right now.
The NFC North is the only division to ever feature four teams three or more games above .500 through Week 9, while the NFC South is the only division to feature four teams two or more games below .500. Is every NFC North team going to make the playoffs? And which NFC South team will likely go one-and-done in the postseason?
Below, we will break down the pretenders and contenders in the NFL right now. We will look at the 14 teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today, and examine if they have a legitimate shot to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Let's begin with the contenders.
Credit to CBS Sports Research
The 7-1 Buffalo Bills are off to their best eight-game start to a season since 1993, which was when they made their last Super Bowl appearance. Josh Allen is again an MVP favorite, James Cook has rushed for at least 75 yards and a touchdown in seven straight games, and Jim Leonhard's defense left the Minnesota Vikings front office scrambling after Carson Wentz registered one of the worst quarterback showings in franchise history on Monday night. The Bills are again a contender.
The San Francisco 49ers are your Super Bowl favorites right now over at DraftKings Sportsbook (+540), and it's easy to understand why. They have started 7-1 or better for the first time since 2019, when they made the Super Bowl. Brock Purdy is an MVP favorite, and he leads an offense that is averaging 29.4 points per game -- which ranks No. 3 in the NFL. This past week against the Las Vegas Raiders, the 49ers scored two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and a defensive touchdown. However, health will again be a major talking point when it comes to San Francisco. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are still sidelined, and defensive tackle Gracen Halton suffered a broken ankle on Sunday. If they can return some players for the stretch run, this could be the 49ers' year.
The Denver Broncos have been dancing with the devil all season in these one-score games, but I'll remind you Bo Nix and Co. did the same thing last year, and probably would have made the Super Bowl if Nix didn't suffer that ankle injury in the divisional round. The Broncos have won five straight games since their 2-2 start, and while they have the worst yard differential (-699) by any team that started 7-2 or better in NFL history, all Nix has done is step up in crunch time. He's 18-12 in his career when trailing in the second half, and 13-12 when trailing in the fourth quarter. Those are the best win percentages by any quarterback since 1970, with a minimum of 20 games. Defensively, Denver is giving up more yards per game than last year, but still ranks top 10 in scoring with 20.7 points allowed per game. You could make the case that the Broncos are pretenders, but I'm leaning the other way. They beat Josh Allen and the Bills in the playoffs last year, and have already defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs this season. Denver could make the AFC Championship again.
The Jaguars are all-in this year. At the trade deadline, they sent a first-round pick, second-round pick, a future second-round pick, a future fifth-round pick and a conditional sixth-round pick for defensive tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and safety Jessie Bates III. Giving up first- and second-round picks for Davis was shocking, but there's no doubt the Jaguars roster got better this week.
The Jags are running away with the AFC South at 6-2, and have as many wins as the rest of their rivals combined. They are 14-2 in their past 16 games dating back to last year, and Trevor Lawrence has statistically been the best quarterback during that stretch with 42 total touchdowns and a 108.8 passer rating. The Jaguars have the second-best scoring defense in the NFL (15.1 points allowed per game) and one of the best run defenses in the league as well, allowing just 89.3 yards per game. Justice Hill actually just became the first running back to rush for 75 yards against the Jags in 25 games.
The Chiefs got back on track this past week against the New York Jets, registering their largest win (23 points) since Week 7 in 2025. Kenneth Walker III also got back on track with 143 total yards and three touchdowns. There's still some concern around Patrick Mahomes' passing game, but the addition of Josh Downs will be helpful. Chiefs receivers are averaging 117.5 yards per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. That hasn't stopped Kansas City from having what is statistically the second-best offense in the NFL (384.1 yards per game).
This may be Joe Burrow's year to win MVP. He's accounted for 26 total touchdowns through eight games. Five of the previous seven players to score that many touchdowns through eight games won MVP. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have combined for 47 receptions, 693 yards and eight touchdowns just over the last three games. We know what Chase is capable of, but Higgins is having the best year of his NFL career. He's averaging 94.8 receiving yards per game and has caught six touchdowns in eight games.
Where there's concern with the Cincinnati Bengals is their rushing attack. The 85.6 rushing yards per game are the fewest by a team to start 6-2 or better since the 2014 Detroit Lions. We'll see if the Bengals can pass their way to a Super Bowl. Cincy's defense still isn't "great" statistically, but it's much improved compared to the past couple of seasons. That in itself gives the Bengals a legitimate shot.
It's hard not to like the Chicago Bears. They have an offensive madman scheming up talented weapons open downfield, a quarterback who looks like Josh Allen, and a defense that has been sparked by the addition of Jeffery Simmons. The Bears can't turn the ball over five times every game as they did on Sunday night, but I'm not too worried about that issue.
The Bears have the firepower offensively to be a Super Bowl contender, from the rushing attack to the passing attack, and a defense that is good enough to support a playoff run. The addition of Simmons affects that unit in more ways than one. He can stuff the run and can pressure the quarterback from the interior -- which in turn makes life easier on those in the secondary.
I'm on the fence with the Lions. We all know about the offense with Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, but the issue has always been Detroit's defense.
The reason I'll place the Lions in the "contender" category is that Kelvin Sheppard's unit has been better in recent weeks. After a disastrous start, the Lions have allowed just 15.5 points per game during this current four-game win streak. They were allowing 31.8 points per game during the 2-2 start. With Brian Branch back, hopefully Kerby Joseph soon, and the addition of Andre Cisco, I think the Lions can be a contender.
If I were power-ranking the teams in the NFC North, I would have the Green Bay Packers third or fourth. So, does that make them a contender or pretender? I'm still trying to figure that out.
The turnaround in Green Bay has been incredible. After that horrific 1-2 start, the Packers are playing better on both sides of the ball. Jordan Love is the best deep-ball thrower in the NFL, and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are looking like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle did in Miami during those fun Mike McDaniel years. The two have combined for 1,662 receiving yards thus far. However, like the Bengals, the Packers can't run the ball. They rank dead last in rushing offense with 68.2 yards per game, and just lost Josh Jacobs to a broken finger.
I'm not placing money on the Packers to win the Super Bowl, but I can't get over how good this passing attack has been. Plus, the defense just picked off Drake Maye three times and will return Micah Parsons soon.
The Vikings were perhaps the most obvious pretender in the NFL despite the 6-2 record. Kyler Murray's passing offense was statistically one of the worst in the NFL, as his 170.3 passing yards per game ranked 30th among 31 qualifying passers entering Week 9. When Carson Wentz replaced him in the lineup on Monday night against Buffalo, some people thought it would open up the offense a bit. Instead, Wentz registered the worst passer rating by a Vikings quarterback (8.9) in a game since 1984, while completing 32% of his passes.
However, I'm willing to entertain the possibility that the Vikings are now contenders with the addition of Kirk Cousins at the trade deadline. He's been playing good football for the Raiders, as his 20 passing touchdowns rank second in the NFL, and his 260.0 passing yards per game rank eighth. Cousins has chemistry with Justin Jefferson -- and that may be an understatement. Jefferson's 98.9 receiving yards per game when catching passes from Cousins are the most by a QB-WR duo all-time (min. 50 games). With the backing of a Brian Flores defense, the Vikings are a team to watch moving forward.
The New York Giants are the frontrunner in the NFC East, but I don't know how realistic their Super Bowl chances are. In fact, DraftKings Sportsbook believes the 3-5 Houston Texans and 3-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have just as good a shot at winning it all this year.
J.J. McCarthy has been better than expected at the quarterback position, but still hasn't thrown a touchdown in his two starts. In fact, he's the only quarterback in the past 40 years to win a game with zero passing touchdowns in four straight starts. New York has what is statistically a top five defense under new coordinator Dennard Wilson and Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Arvell Reese, but there are at least five teams in the NFC I'm more confident in.
The New England Patriots were destroyed at home by the Packers on Sunday, 45-27. Those 45 points were the most allowed in a home game since 1970. Christian Gonzalez struggled to keep up with the dynamic duo of Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, while Drake Maye threw three interceptions. To make matters worse, running back Rhamondre Stevenson is reportedly dealing with a knee injury that will sideline him for a couple of weeks, while TreVeyon Henderson remains out after experiencing an "unusual medical emergency." The Patriots running backs are now Corey Kiner and Lan Larison.
Even with Mike Tomlin gone, I still view the Pittsburgh Steelers the same. A feisty team that can make the playoffs and maybe even steal the division, but is not a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
With that said, there are reasons to believe the Steelers could be a sleeper. Aaron Rodgers' offense is averaging 26.2 points per game over their last six, plus Jaylen Warren is one of the most improved players in the NFL this season. He's already up to 998 total yards in eight games played. That ranks fifth in the NFL.
Whether the Carolina Panthers win the NFC South or not, I don't view them as a Super Bowl contender. The Panthers have lost three straight games and are averaging 17.7 points per contest during this skid. Carolina's offensive line and cornerback room have been hit hard by injuries, and this team is now a +225 underdog to win the division.
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