The GM Meetings are over, and the biggest move was the Detroit Tigers signing reliever Emilio Pagan to a one-year, $11.5 million contract.

Which should be the first of plenty of deals to come, with the feeling across baseball that there will be a free agent frenzy before the Dec. 1 lockout. “There’s more deals than people think before the lockout,” one source said. “Tons of action,” another source said. “I imagine the offers come in like start of next week. The real ones,” a third source said. “I think next week during Owners Meetings it gets a lot of legs.”

But which players will be on the move, and where? Rumors were flying fast and furious in Las Vegas, so let's run through everything I heard in conversations with MLB sources — and what it really means.

Tarik Skubal to meet with at least four teams

What I heard: Tarik Skubal, the best free agent in the class, is meeting with the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets. There are other teams interested, too.

Most people that I spoke to in Vegas believe that the Mets will be the team to beat for Skubal, citing the need for an elite starting pitcher and owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets. But there is competition.

The Dodgers acquired Skubal at the deadline and had a couple months to showcase the perks of the organization, but they could prefer a shorter-term contract similar to what Kyle Tucker signed last winter — and according to ESPN, that is of no interest to Skubal. The Padres and AJ Preller are always exploring ways to add elite talent and it’s no surprise that they are involved on Skubal. The Blue Jays, too, have been in the mix for big free agents and have a need for a frontline starting pitcher to headline the rotation.

What I believe: It would hardly be a surprise if there are more teams that join the mix on Skubal. This feels ripe for a mystery team or two. But all eyes are on the Mets with the star left-hander.

Alec Bohm is popular in baseball circles

What I heard: Bohm’s camp met with at least the Yankees and Mets, among others.

There was buzz in baseball circles leading up to the offseason that Alec Bohm would be popular in free agency, and that was exactly the case in Vegas.

I had a couple people come up to me in the lobby and ask, “what have you heard on Bohm?” The answer is that teams are very intrigued by him and teams see Bohm, 30, as a player who still has his best baseball ahead of him. They were intrigued by his second half where he hit .298/.369/.425 with a .794 OPS, four home runs and 41 RBI. 

What I believe: The talent has always been there. Bohm, 30, was the No. 3 overall pick in 2018 and he was an All-Star in 2024. And it would hardly be a surprise if he did really well in free agency.

What will the Brewers do with William Contreras and Trevor Megill?

What I heard: Contreras is likely to stay. Megill, on the other hand, we’ll see.

During the regular season and postseason, rival teams wondered if the Brewers would trade William Contreras this winter, citing that he’ll be a free agent in 2028 and the franchise's history of moving on from players in similar positions (Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams).

What I believe: Milwaukee, however, highly values Contreras and believes they would not have won the World Series without the star catcher. There’s skepticism in league circles that he will be traded, with one source calling it “unlikely,” and comparing it to the Willy Adames situation where Milwaukee felt he was too valuable to trade despite significant interest.

Trevor Megill, meanwhile, could be a different story. He has drawn trade interest in the past and a trade this winter does feel possible. One team that makes sense: the San Francisco Giants, who are prioritizing bullpen upgrades and are in need of a closer.

The Rays prefer to hold onto Drew Rasmussen

What I heard: While there will be strong interest in Drew Rasmussen, the Rays really prefer to keep him.

Immediately after the season ended, the speculation about a Rasmussen trade this winter was loud. He is owed $20 million this season, a number that usually leads to trade talks in Tampa Bay.

I asked Rays executive Erik Neander about Rasmussen, and he said: “I think the absolute world of Drew. We’ve been through a journey with Drew having drafted him, walking away, reacquiring him from Milwaukee. He’s near and dear to our organization's heart for what he represents and what he represents. … We picked up the option. We won 98 games and three away from winning the World Series and Drew is the type of talent and person that we need to have to get those three wins hopefully soon.

“It’s a very strong relationship that we have. Our hope and expectation is that he’ll be anchoring our rotation, and hopefully that’s not the end of it even then.”

What I believe: The Rays very much want to keep Rasmussen, and is it possible that the two sides could engage in extension talks this winter?

The Padres are going to be heavy after starting pitching

What I heard: One reporter asked AJ Preller if he was looking for three or four starting pitchers this winter.

“Keep going,” Preller responded.

What I believe: The Padres’ plans this winter are pitching, pitching and more pitching. We’ve heard them connected to Tarik Skubal. They are interested in reunions with Michael King and Nick Pivetta. But they are planning on multiple pitching additions. 

An under-the-radar free agent to watch: David Peterson

What I heard: There are a bunch of teams interested in free-agent pitcher David Peterson, and his numbers with the Cubs underscore why. He posted a 3.70 ERA in 16 games (80.1 innings) in Chicago and had a 2.73 ERA in the second half of the regular season.

What I believe: Teams value Peterson a lot. He won’t draw the same headlines as Skubal and Freddy Peralta, but Peterson is firmly on the radar of teams.

Foster Griffin in line for multi-year contract in free agency

What I heard: Perhaps the best value signing of last winter was the Washington Nationals landing Foster Griffin to a one-year, $5.5 million contract.

With the Nationals, Griffin posted a 3.06 ERA and 116 strikeouts over 129.1 innings. He was traded to the Cleveland Guardians at the deadline in exchange for four prospects. He finished the season with a 3.60 ERA in 31 starts and posted a 3.48 ERA in three postseason starts in Cleveland.

“He’s a guy who provides stability to a staff, can get you 170 innings and gives you something different than 98 mph,” one National League scout said.

What I believe: Griffin will be in demand among teams who don't land Skubal or Peralta, and his market could surprise people.

The Minor League free agent market is active

What I heard: The amount of people who told me that Minor League free agency was active is too many to count, with a couple Minor Leaguers hearing from at least 20 teams. While Major Leaguers will not be permitted to talk to any team personnel during the lockout, that is not the case with Minor Leaguers. They will get full access to MLB coaches, as well as team medical and player development staff. I’d look for plenty of Minor League free agents to come off the board between now and Dec. 1.