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Padres Veteran Pitcher Shockingly Projected to Sign $12.5 Million Deal in Free Agency

This Padres All-Star free agent pitcher could receive a hefty contract.

Jul 1, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Walker Buehler (10) delivers during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The San Diego Padres fell short of a title in 2026, losing to the eventual champion Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Division Series. 

The Padres squeezed out a win in the best-of-five series, but it wasn't enough. All eyes are now set on the offseason and on putting the team on a trajectory toward a World Series title. 

That's all easier said than done, but will be the mission for the Padres and their front office. The main focus this offseason is on addressing their starting pitching. 

The Padres made the mistake of spending cheaply last offseason, which in turn played a role in losing to the Brewers in the NLDS. Although the Padres went cheap, they did find some diamonds in the rough, like Walker Buehler. 

Buehler signed a minor league deal and played a vital role in the Padres' rotation throughout the season. He had a bounce back season, and because of that, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel predicts the veteran pitcher will receive a major payday. 

McDaniel predicts that Buehler will receive a one-year, $12.5 million deal in free agency.

"Buehler looked set up for a nine-figure deal after the 2021 season, when he put up his second 5-WAR campaign, this time across 33 starts and 207.2 innings. Since then, there have been some injuries, and his velo slipped a bit, causing his strikeout rate to fall off a lot while his walk rate crept up, too," McDaniel wrote. "He stabilized that last season, making 32 starts and posting a 4.62 ERA that was a bit unlucky. He's now a bulk-innings option who will likely get to choose between one- and two-year offers." 

Padres Face Important Decision on Walker Buehler’s Future

Buehler, who struggled with injuries in the past, was as durable as can be for the Friars. 

The former two-time All-Star posted a 4.63 ERA, 131 strikeouts and a 1.34 WHIP in 32 starts and 153.2 innings. Buehler then started Game 4 of the NLDS, allowing one run in three-plus innings of work.

Before the 2026 season, the former first-round pick had a long, difficult road. From injuries to being bounced around from team to team in 2025, nothing seemed to go right for Buehler. 

However, he got his swagger back with the Friars, and now the only question now is whether he will remain in San Diego. Buehler made his intentions clear at the conclusion of the season, saying he'd love to remain with the organization. At this price, though, San Diego may have to look elsewhere as they attempt to fill an entire rotation.

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