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Revisiting Ohio State's CFP Chances Entering Week 11 vs. Northwestern Wildcats

Several metrics have the Ohio State Buckeyes still alive to make the CFP, but the question remains whether they will.

Nov 7, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day watches warm ups before the game against the Oregon Ducks at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Ohio State Buckeyes remain in a challenging spot as they'll look to avoid their third straight loss Saturday, when the Northwestern Wildcats travel to Columbus. They will also look to snap their own losing skid in FOX's Big Noon Kickoff game.

Ohio State now finds itself on the outside looking in on the College Football Playoff conversation, with less than a month until the final bracket is unveiled on the first Sunday in December. It marks the final season of the 12-team format, one that has benefited the Buckeyes, as they won the national title two seasons ago against Notre Dame.

With three games left in the regular season, including the annual finale known as "The Game," the Michigan Wolverines aim for redemption after last year's 27-9 thrashing in Ann Arbor; the Buckeyes could be playing with fire if they need a ninth win to secure a potential at-large bid in the 12-team field.

Outside of Ohio State needing to win out starting this Saturday, several metric formulas have begun to outline the Buckeyes' playoff path.

And it isn't easy.

Can Ohio State Run The Table?

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day takes the field for the NCAA football game against the Oregon Ducks in Columbus on Nov. 7, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

According to The Rooting Guide, Ohio State fans should zero in on five games in Week 11 to watch where certain outcomes could be tremendously beneficial.

Those would include the UCLA Bruins suffering their first loss in a would-be Friday night stunner against the Illinois Fighting Illini, alongside a collection of Saturday chaos: Oregon getting upset by the Wolverines, USC beating the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington (which would give the Hoosiers their second loss), plus victories by the Texas Longhorns over the LSU Tigers and SMU Mustangs against Wake Forest.

"Each of those upsets would help more than Ohio State’s own expected win," the x post read. "That doesn’t make Northwestern optional: lose, and the model takes away 21.4 points."

As outlined a few weeks ago, the ESPN FPI has since updated its projections for Ohio State.

Despite its recent on-field struggles and quarterback concerns, the FPI still gives Ohio State optimism that a bare-minimum win-out and a 9-3 finish are still on the table.

Entering its game against the Wildcats, Ohio State has an 86.3 percent chance to win. If it regains its momentum, next week's game in Lincoln against the Nebraska Cornhuskers sees that chance dip to 74.3 percent (while still projected to win).

The regular-season finale against the Wolverines sees Ohio State with an 89.3 percent chance to win, making the Buckeyes heavy favorites to run the table despite consecutive losses.

We'll see if they can.

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