Houston Dynamo host St Louis City in Major League Soccer on Saturday at Shell Energy Stadium on the final day of the regular season.

Both clubs sit on 51 points in the MLS table, so Houston must win to guarantee home-field advantage in the best-of-three first round, while a win or a draw is enough to secure it for St Louis.

Match preview

Houston arrive on 51 points from 14 wins, nine draws and 10 defeats, and a 3-1 loss at Portland on November 1 dropped them from the top four to fifth, level with St Louis on points but behind on goal difference.

That defeat followed a 1-0 win at Seattle on October 28, Houston’s first road win over the Sounders, courtesy of Lucas Halter’s 26th-minute header from a Mateusz Bogusz corner, his first goal in 20 league appearances this season.

Jonathan Bond made six saves as Seattle outshot Houston 21-2, and the clean sheet was Houston’s 13th of the MLS season, which equals the club record.

The win ended a seven-match winless run in the league that included a 0-0 draw at home to Minnesota United on October 24.

At Portland, Agustin Bouzat’s 71st-minute strike was Houston’s only shot on target, against six for the Timbers, whose goals came from David Da Costa, Kristoffer Velde and Vincent Janssen.

Guilherme was directly involved in 26 of Houston’s 42 league goals before that game, a rate of 61.9%, which helps explain why the Dynamo created so little without him and Hector Herrera, with Guilherme’s 16 goals and 10 assists the best return in the squad.

St Louis also have 51 points from 14 wins, nine draws and 10 defeats, and they hold fourth place on a goal difference of +10 to Houston’s +1.

City arrive on four straight MLS defeats, the first of them a 3-2 loss at Minnesota United on October 17 in which they led 2-0 after 10 minutes and which ended a 21-match unbeaten run across all competitions.

A 3-0 defeat at Real Salt Lake followed on October 24, with Tomas Ostrak sent off for a second yellow card in the 44th minute, then a 3-2 loss to Portland at Energizer Park on October 28 and a 1-0 loss to San Diego on October 31 through Anders Dreyer’s 38th-minute goal, despite City having 16 shots to 12 and seven on target to three.

Yoann Damet blames fatigue after seven matches in 20 days, a run that included winning the US Open Cup final at Columbus on October 21, where a 0-0 draw became a 5-3 penalty shootout win after Ben Lundt saved the opening spot kick and Daniel Edelman scored the decisive one.

Carlo Holse, signed from Samsunspor for a reported $6m, the most expensive signing in club history, scored a hat-trick inside 21 minutes of the 6-2 win over LA Galaxy on October 11, the second regular-season hat-trick in City’s history.

St Louis have beaten Houston twice in 2026, winning the US Open Cup quarter-final on penalties on May 19 after a 2-2 draw in which Lundt saved Guilherme’s and Herrera’s spot kicks, and the league meeting 2-1 on August 22 through Dante Polvara’s 86th-minute winner after Ibrahim Aliyu’s equaliser, while Marcel Hartel, who scored twice in the cup tie, was sold to Hannover on August 11.

Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer form:

St Louis City Major League Soccer form:

St Louis City form (all competitions):

Team News

Bond was replaced in the starting lineup during the warm-up at Portland and Jimmy Maurer is out with a back injury, so Blake Gillingham started and made three saves.

Guilherme and Herrera both missed the Portland game and neither has been confirmed for Saturday, while Marcelo Saracchi remains out.

Franco Negri was substituted in the 36th minute at Portland and replaced by Duane Holmes, Felipe Andrade returned from injury off the bench, and Agustin Resch has been back in the defence alongside Halter since the Seattle game.

For the visitors, Roman Burki returned to training on Tuesday, November 3 after the concussion he suffered in the Open Cup final, and Damet has said he will not rush the goalkeeper, which leaves Lundt as the alternative.

Alexandru Matan, who has missed the last three league matches with a lower-leg injury, was also back in training on Tuesday and could be limited to a place on the bench.

Ostrak came off the bench against San Diego after his red card at Salt Lake, Holse was left out of the starting lineup for the Minnesota and Salt Lake defeats, and striker Rafael Navarro, who scored the opener at Minnesota, was ineligible for the Open Cup final.

Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:

Bond; Negri, Resch, Halter; Aliyu, Artur, Herrera, Bouzat, Ennali; Guilherme, Bogusz

St Louis City possible starting lineup:

Lundt; Fall, Baumgartl, Polvara; Totland, Edelman, Durkin, Wallem, Holse; Becher, Navarro

We say: Houston Dynamo 1-0 St Louis City

Houston must win and they are at home, and their route is the one that beat Seattle despite being outshot 21-2, with Bogusz’s corners producing Halter’s header and five assists for the midfielder this season.

St Louis have scored in only one of their last three league games, having thrown away a 2-0 lead at Minnesota, and a side that needs only a draw with Burki and Matan barely back from injury may be content to protect the point.

The counter-argument is that City have beaten Houston twice this year and outshot San Diego, but Houston’s club-record-equalling 13 clean sheets, and Guilherme if he returns, tilt a one-goal game towards the home side.

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