As in-season trades become all the more prevalent in the NFL, the risk of overspending also rises. That was most clear in 2025 when the Indianapolis Colts made perhaps the most regrettable trade in league history by sending two first-round picks to the New York Jets in exchange for cornerback Sauce Gardner. Those draft picks are golden with the Colts entering a deep rebuild, while Gardner has played the worst football of his career since landing in Indianapolis.

When teams pulled off 18 deals ahead of the 2026 trade deadline, they did so hoping to avoid the disaster that was the Colts' acquisition of Gardner. Chances are high that none of this year's trades will be as lopsided as that one, but it is far too soon to rule it out.

Only one transaction this year included two first-round picks, and it is already paying dividends for the purchasing side. And only one other included a single first-rounder. That does not mean that all of the teams involved are out of the woods just yet, though.

Here are the 2026 in-season trades with the greatest potential to go down as busts.

A note on the Jeffery Simmons trade

The trade that most resembles the infamous Sauce Gardner deal is the one that moved Jeffery Simmons to the Chicago Bears. The Tennessee Titans secured two first-round picks in the swap. There will always be long-term risks (most notably regarding injury), but Simmons has already delivered, in a small sample size, everything the Bears could have asked of him. The superstar defensive tackle notched a sack and pass breakup in both of his first two games and logged an additional tackle for loss in his debut and elevated the entire unit around him in the process. It is far too soon to close the book on this trade, but all indications suggest it is a slam dunk for the Super Bowl-contending Bears.

Jordan Davis to Jaguars

Many elements of the Jordan Davis trade make sense for the Jacksonville Jaguars as they pursue the first Super Bowl in franchise history. The most obvious of them is that Davis fills an immediate need that arose when DaVon Hamilton went down with a season-ending torn quad muscle. But there is a great deal of inherent risk that comes with moving a 2027 first-round pick and 2029 second-rounder to land him. It is an all-in move that will either pay tremendous dividends or go down as an overpay. There is very little middle ground when it comes to these kinds of blockbuster trades.

Davis has to be a difference-maker from the jump. The Jaguars are in play for the AFC's No. 1 seed and will battle until season's end to secure it. More importantly, this trade will be judged in the context of what Davis delivers in the postseason. Anything short of a Super Bowl run is suddenly a disappointment, and Davis needs to play a major role in their championship pursuit.

From a run-stopping standpoint, Davis should give the Jaguars everything they lost from Hamilton and more. For the price they paid, it would be preferable if Davis were more of a threat as a pass rusher, however. He has never logged more than 4.5 sacks in a season. If offenses have to take blockers away from other players to account for him, then perhaps the added pocket disruption from the edges will make up for his lack of havoc creation.

Marvin Harrison Jr. to Texans

The 2023 Biletnikoff Award winner is already a bust of a No. 4 overall draft pick. Will his trade from the Arizona Cardinals to the Houston Texans be a bust, too? Unless Marvin Harrison Jr.'s new team can tap back into the production that made him a promising rookie two years ago, the investment of a second-round pick to acquire him will go down as a steep price to pay for no more than a tertiary option in a deep receiving corps.

With time, Harrison's reunion with his college quarterback, C.J. Stroud, may prove fruitful. It would be unfair to ask those two to hit the ground running as a prolific tandem considering their time apart and the amount of time it takes to settle into a new system, but over the long term (and there is a long term here with Harrison under contract through 2027 and potentially into 2028) it is a reasonable expectation. Harrison is still a talented player, and Stroud is rounding into a standout franchise quarterback this season. On paper, those two things should mesh well.

There are warning signs about Harrison's future as a viable NFL starter, though, most notably in the form of his questionable effort in Arizona. And while he does have a touchdown already in Houston, he has not caught more than three passes in a game since joining the Texans and has only run 29 routes over three games. All three of his appearances came off the bench, too.

The modest playing time could be a result of Houston easing him into action until he gets a firm grasp on the playbook and rebuilds his connection with Stroud, but it may also indicate that he is not a top option in what has quickly become a crowded wide receiver group. Stroud has to battle each of these players for targets:

• Nico Collins
• Xavier Hutchinson
• Tank Dell
• Kayshon Boutte
• Jayden Higgins (on injured reserve)
• Jaylin Noel (on injured reserve)

That is not to mention tight end Dalton Schultz, who leads all Texans with 47 targets on the season.

Kirk Cousins to Vikings

If it pans out, the Kirk Cousins move could be the most impactful in-season trade of them all and spark a Super Bowl run for the Minnesota Vikings. His potential to elevate the offense and maximize the team's potential with its otherworldly defense is real. But there is also a risk that Cousins cannot replicate what he did with the Las Vegas Raiders over the first half of the season, and the Vikings give up a third-round pick for a lateral move at quarterback rather than an upgrade over Kyler Murray.

Cousins was rejuvenated in Sin City and played his best version of football since his first stint in Minnesota. He is even on pace to flirt with the first 40-touchdown season of his career. The 38-year-old who fell out of favor with the Atlanta Falcons turned himself back into a starter and a highly productive one at that. But that came in an immensely quarterback-friendly system that coach Klint Kubiak has proven can turn middle-of-the-road passers into standouts. What happens when he leaves that scheme?

The last time Cousins played for Kevin O'Connell, he made the Pro Bowl. His fit in the Vikings' offense may be just as ideal as the one he displayed in Las Vegas. The numbers, in fact, suggest it could be even better.

Kirk Cousins under Kevin O'Connell and Klint Kubiak

But the last time Cousins played for the Minnesota Timberwolves was when he was 35, before he tore his Achilles. This is a different quarterback than the one who won 13 games in his last 17-game season in 2022.

Joey Porter Jr. to Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys have only gotten one game of full-strength Joey Porter Jr. despite trading for him all the way back on Oct. 1. He did not record a statistic in that debut. Since then, Porter missed a game due to illness, missed another with an ankle injury, and played through the ankle issue in two other games. It remains to be seen whether he will return to the lineup in Week 10 after he missed last week's win over the Indianapolis Colts.

When he is on the field, Porter is a lockdown cornerback. He allowed no better than a minuscule 47.9 passer rating in any of his first three games with the Cowboys across 10 targets. He still has permitted just one touchdown in his career and has gone 1,570 coverage snaps since then, according to Next Gen Stats. But if he cannot stay in the lineup, he will not be worth the 2028 second-round pick and 2027 sixth-rounder the Cowboys gave up to acquire him from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Especially if he leaves in free agency.

That is the next major question in this marriage between Porter and Dallas. Will he stick around beyond this year? The Steelers were unwilling to meet his reported demands to make him one of the highest-paid cornerbacks in the NFL, and Jerry Jones does not exactly have a history of paying players what they ask for, either. This could turn out to be a one-year rental for a player who has already missed time.

Plus, it is not like the Cowboys' defense at large has taken any major steps forward since Porter joined the unit. The NFL's third-worst group in yards allowed per game remains a stain on what would otherwise be a post-season caliber roster, with its star-studded offense and all.

Quenton Nelson to Seahawks

Similar to the Porter trade, the deal that sent Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts to the Seattle Seahawks has a cloud of uncertainty hanging over it because of a health issue. Nelson underwent a minor procedure to clean up cartilage fragments in his knee and is labeled as week-to-week. He will not play in Week 10 but has also not landed on injured reserve, which indicates he could be back by early December.

Seattle gave up a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick to land Nelson on Oct. 27 and thus paid a fairly modest price for one of the top interior offensive linemen of the 2020s. Still, it will only be worth the investment if Nelson gets and stays healthy and upgrades a dormant running game. Before his knee surgery, he did not bring tangible improvement to the ground attack. The Seahawks managed 81 yards in his debut (their second-lowest total of the season) and rushed for a modest 3.6 yards per carry in a slugfest last week.

Nelson's health and ongoing rushing issues have already knocked a few points off the Seahawks' value in what initially seemed like a home-run trade. There is still plenty of time to salvage it, and if he re-signs in free agency, that would go a long way in making the deal age phenomenally. But there is an outcome in which Nelson plays below full strength for most of the year and then leaves in the offseason. In the aggregate, Seattle would be out at least one draft pick (potentially two depending on the compensatory formula) and an All-Pro guard in that case.