Charles Leclerc’s P2 in the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix put a smile on the faces of Ferrari’s mechanics, but the mood at the Scuderia may yet change in Mexico City.

Formula 1 has headed straight from Austin, Texas to the Mexican capital city for round 19 of 23 this weekend. The Mexico City GP rounds out the second of three triple-headers to finish the term, and looks set to be the race where Mercedes’ Andrea Kimi Antonelli wins the title.

Antonelli’s dominant United States GP win ahead of Leclerc by 13.078s last weekend means the Italian needs to outscore his Mercedes teammate George Russell by just two points and Ferrari racer Lewis Hamilton by one point in Mexico City to be F1’s youngest-ever champion.

Ferrari fear Mexico City’s high altitude will punish their smaller turbocharger

Ferrari’s mechanics still left the Circuit of the Americas with a smile on their faces, however, as Leclerc sealing a third-straight podium – after finishing P3 at Sepang and P2 in Singapore – showed the Scuderia’s aerodynamic upgrade package at the United States GP worked out.

Leclerc made the most of Ferrari’s floor, bargeboard, sidepod inlet and diffuser updates at COTA to reach the rostrum last week. But fear has spread within the Scuderia’s ranks that the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez might now cause them to crash back down to earth.

That is according to Formul1.it, which reports that Ferrari believe Leclerc’s podium proved not only that their upgrades worked but that their simulator and wind tunnel are correctly correlated to the circuit. Yet, at the same time, Ferrari’s simulations for the Mexico City GP show the high altitude could cause their engine to struggle more than it has at any round.

The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is 7,350 feet above sea level, so the air is incredibly thin and that will force Ferrari’s smaller turbocharger to work even harder at high revs to compress the air. Even the Scuderia’s advantage from being able to run their engine at a higher temperature is unlikely to considerably negate the power they will lose at altitude.

Ferrari, therefore, are looking at the Mexico City GP almost as damage limitation, as they bid to hold onto P2 in the constructors’ standings. Mercedes are closing in on winning the teams’ title thanks to their 133-point lead over Ferrari, who edge Red Bull and McLaren in third and fourth by 119 points – the Milton Keynes and Woking outfits are level on points.

Fear spreading within Maranello also puts the spotlight once again on Ferrari’s decision to delay introducing a bigger turbocharger until 2027. The Scuderia had looked into adapting their turbo when they introduced their ADUO2 engine upgrade at Monza in round 13, but the team decided against changing the turbo’s size this year as they doubted its reliability.