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It's Week 9 which means it's officially the start of the "Witching Hour" for the 2026 season. College Football Playoff contenders in the AP Top 25 right now could easily tumble out over the next month and some programs written off prematurely will enter the picture at the last moment.
Saturday offers a multitude of underrated matchups that may not be high-profile ranked-on-ranked games but still have massive CFP implications. The following eight teams curently either sit in the projected 12-team bracket or are on the bubble. They cannot stumble lest their national title hopes begin to dim or are extinguished altogether.
Who would've thought anybody would be talking about Wake Forest as being in contention for a football title. We're still five months away from March when the Demon Deacons' basketball program typically enters the postseason discussion. Saturday they face a 4-4 Virginia team that was projected to challenge for the ACC title in the preseason. The Cavaliers have disappointed to date but still offer a challenge for Wake Forest.
Head coach Jake Dickert's boys only have one blemish on their resume -- a 13-point loss to then-No. 5 Miami (now No. 1) and they played them rather close for most of the contest. A loss to Virginia would be very difficult for the CFP Selection Committee to look past if the ACC is to be granted more than just its champion a spot in the bracket. Wake Forest still has No. 15 SMU left on its schedule too.
Losing to unranked Cincinnati in Week 8 would've likely eliminated Texas Tech had it not been for BYU's stumble at UCF in the same evening. Now it has a ranked matchup that could be the knockout punch. No. 22 Arizona has emerged out of the desert and are winners of five straight. Should the Wildcats hand the Red Raiders their second consecutive loss, they could even fall out of the Top 25 altogether.
The Big 12 is already a conference with a reputation of struggling to convince the CFP selection committee it's a multi-bid league. With the SEC and Big Ten favored so heavily in strength of schedule, two losses for a Big 12 school is an automatic elimination unless that team somehow wins the conference title game a-la Arizona State in 2024.
After suffering an upset to then-No. 19 Texas -- who was practically left for dead in the cannibalizing SEC -- the Rebels' postseason hopes are on life support. They already lost to then-No. 21 Florida who went on to lose two consecutive after that. Ole Miss now faces an Auburn team that is completely beatable on paper but is coming off a confidence-boosting upset over then-No. 1 Georgia and then humbling loss to then-No. 18 LSU. Things could get chaotic in Oxford.
Ole Miss' resume cannot survive a third loss even if the SEC is going to be granted three or four bids. The math just isn't going to pan out for the Rebels in the conference title race and the surplus of upsets is going to make the rankings a toss up. With a season-ending bout against No. 10 Alabama still left on the schedule, that could even be the team's fourth loss upcoming.
The upset over a Top 10 Ole Miss program practically saved the Longhorns' season. A loss there and they wouldn't even be in this conversation and QB Arch Manning would be getting ready to hit the transfer portal. Now head coach Steve Sarkisian is prepping for what is supposed to be a "gimme" game against Mississippi State who will be without star passer Kamario Taylor for the rest of the year.
A loss to a Taylor-less Bulldogs team would be unforgiveable. It would be the program's third loss in their last four games and that's just a pure failure in the eye-test category on top of the poor resume. Texas' first two losses were back-to-back to unranked Oklahoma and Florida. The Longhorns still have two more ranked foes upcoming in Missouri and LSU but not even wins against them could earn them an 11-seed with three losses.
You'd think a dominant team like BYU wouldn't drop back-to-back games but the Big 12 is literally the new wild west of college football. The Cougars host a scrappy Arizona State team that may be finally figuring out its offensive rhythm with freshman QB Jake Fette set to make his first career start. BYU saw its CFP hopes toppled by the Sun Devils two years ago in Tempe. A repeat of that kind of stumble could put them on life support this year.
There's only so much a win over No. 2 Notre Dame can do for your resume with a loss to an unranked team immediately following it. Adding another one would be akin to attaching a two-ton anchor to the program's ankle and expecting it to sprint to the finish line. Week 10 is supposed to feature a Top 10 Holy War matchup with Utah but a loss to ASU would dash those dreams entirely.
Losing to Ohio State because your receiver stepped out of bounds in the endzone on a potential game-winning play was brutal. Indiana followed that disappointment up with a gritty win over Michigan in overtime but because it required the extra period, the CFP committee will be watching the Hoosiers closely the rest of the way. Enter the fifth-place Minnesota Golden Gophers who may have two bad losses but are coming off a rivalry upset over No. 15 Iowa.
With no other ranked opponents left on the scheduled (unless USC does something wild, we'll get to that in a second), Indiana could be the first Big Ten team left on the outside of the bracket looking in. The defending national champions may not be given the opportunity to, well, defend their title because two losses in three contests severely impacts their eye test grade. The Hoosiers would have to hope for a lot of chaos over the final month in the rankings above them to sneak in.
The SEC title game has a real chance of featuring two teams with two or more losses. There's also a significant chance Georgia is one of those teams, especially if No. 17 Florida pulls off the win in Athens. The Bulldogs will be looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since 2016, head coach Kirby Smart's first season at the helm. Failing to do so would probably come as a shock to the CFP committee.
However, it may not be the end of the considering how high the team is currently ranked. Losing to a Top 20 team isn't good but it's not as bad as falling to an unranked foe. Georgia could survive a loss to the Gators but it still has two more ranked teams left on the docket immediately after. Avoiding a second loss before playing those games is why the Bulldogs can't afford to stumble in Week 9.
If quarterback Julian Sayin was healthy, the same argument for Georgia would apply here for Ohio State. However, the team's once-Heisman Trophy hopeful is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing shoulder and freshman Luke Fahey is slated to start against USC on the road. If Fahey plays as poorly as he did in the conclusion of the near-loss to Indiana, the Buckeyes are completely screwed.
Ohio State could be the first team since undefeated Florida State in 2023 to be positioned as a contender but left out of playoff because of a quarterback injury. Now, the team still has four more games it would have to win to meet that potential but the point still stands. The committee would be well within its precedent to see Ohio State lose to unranked USC (saving Lincoln Riley's job in the process) and decide that unless another backup QB shows promise, the Buckeyes are permanently planted at No. 12 or thereabouts for the remainder of the year.