Welcome to the Stat of the Week, where we use advanced metrics to uncover the trends, performances and strategic shifts shaping the NFL season.

Through his first two NFL seasons, Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix was one of the better deep passers in the business. In his rookie season of 2024, the 12th overall pick in that draft attempted 77 passes of 20 or more air yards, completing 32 for 975 yards, nine touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 106.1 — the sixth-highest passer rating in the league on such throws. 

Things were even better in some ways in the 2025 season when Nix chucked it deep — then, he attempted 82 deep passes, completing 33 for 989 yards, a league-high 13 touchdowns (tied with Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears), four interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.1, the 10th-highest passer rating in the league. 

In the 2026 offseason, the Broncos traded their 2026 first-round, third-round, and fourth-round picks to the Miami Dolphins for speed receiver Jaylen Waddle and a 2026 fourth-round pick. Denver’s offense, designed by head coach Sean Payton, hadn’t had a vertical target of Waddle’s caliber before, so the obvious thought was that Nix would be even more effective when making those deep throws. 

For all these reasons, to say that the Broncos’ deep passing game has been a disappointment in the 2026 season would be a radical understatement. Through the first six games, Nix attempted 14 deep passes, completing six for 185 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 113.7. If we prorate that out to a full 17-game season, Nix would be good for 17 deep completions on 40 attempts for 524 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. And that would represent about half of the deep ball numbers we are used to from Mr. Nix.

NFL Stat of the Week: Bo Nix's deep ball appears to be a thing of the past

The stat: Bo Nix is on pace to complete 51.5% of the deep throws he completed in the 2025 season.

The Broncos currently stand at 4-2, second place in the AFC West behind the Kansas City Chiefs, but the limited passing game is all people want to discuss. Following Denver’s 17-14 win over the Seattle Seahawks last Thursday night, Nix was asked about the issues with the vertical element. 

“We’re definitely capable,” he said. “We’ve shown it. I don’t know where the disconnect is right now, to be honest with you. Because when the shot is called, we read it out, it’s not there, you make the right play with the football, check it down, go to the next play. I just think we’re really for some reason struggling to find those explosive plays. That’s what makes an offense really spectacular is finding explosive plays. Right now, we don’t have those.” 

On Monday, as his Broncos were preparing to meet the Arizona Cardinals, Payton responded to Nix’s comments. 

“We knew going into that [Seattle] game [that] there were some challenging looks based on the way these guys feature their two-deep, two-high shell,” he said. “We’ll be able to get the ball down the field. I was able to listen to what Bo said specifically, and certainly you come away from a game like that, and you’re wanting a little bit more or, obviously, a chunk play. That starts with me and us giving him those opportunities when they present themselves.” 

Yes, Nix has been less dynamic against two-deep coverages, but that’s true of nearly every NFL quarterback. Single-high safety coverages naturally leave more openings for vertical routes, and against two-deep coverage, Nix has completed just two of six deep passes this season for 83 yards. Problem is, Nix attempted two deep passes against the Seahawks, both were against single-high coverages, and both were incomplete. Both were also defended by Devon Witherspoon, one of the best cornerbacks in the game today. The two attempts were to Waddle and to receiver Marvin Mims, the team’s two fastest receivers, so the personnel was right. The opposing personnel was just... well, better. 

How the Broncos can fix Bo Nix and the deep passing game

How do the Broncos fix this problem before it becomes a season-defining handicap? If we look at Nix’s two deep completions against two-deep coverage this season, there are two common denominators: Nix is throwing on time and on target as opposed to overthinking things, and his coaches (Payton and offensive coordinator Davis Webb) are giving him route combinations designed to attack all that two-deep stuff. 

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, Nix’s 49-yard completion to Waddle was set up with a high-low concept in which Waddle ran the go route from the inside of a tight formation, and receiver Courtland Sutton ran the intermediate hitch route. This caused the appropriate confusion in the Jaguars’ secondary, and Waddle had one-on-one coverage 47 yards downfield. 

Against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5, Nix’s 34-yard completion to tight end Evan Engram was set up with a high-low concept in which Engram ran the corner route, and receiver Troy Franklin ran the straight vertical route. This caused the appropriate confusion in the Chargers’ secondary, and Engram was wide open.

So, the Broncos have everything in their quiver to beat defenses with the deep ball — they simply need to dial up what has worked before (in small doses, to be sure), and get back on the proverbial horse. Nix has the tools to throw deep, and he always has. What he needs now, as he’s had in the past, are the answers to the test.