Ferrari looks like the team to beat in Mexico City, but the data suggests the margin is much smaller than the timesheets show.

Leclerc topped both sessions with Norris just a tenth behind in FP2, and telemetry reveals how the thin air has changed the pecking order.

How Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes compare on Mexico City GP pace

As has become a familiar theme this season, Ferrari enjoyed a very strong Friday in Mexico. Leclerc topped the timesheets in both sessions and genuinely looked rapid.

Although FP1 featured numerous rookie drivers, making direct comparisons tricky, Leclerc and Antonelli still offer a clear window into their teams’ strategic development.

The immediate takeaway is that Ferrari look competitive down the straights. Naturally, this must be taken with a pinch of salt given it was only FP1, and countless times this season we have seen the SF-26 look strong on the straights only for that advantage to vanish in qualifying.

However, conditions here are somewhat different: extreme altitude significantly cuts aerodynamic drag while placing a much heavier burden on the turbocharger, making the balance between the two critical. Ferrari’s advantage lies in running a slightly smaller turbocharger than their rivals, which can aid performance in these conditions.

The graph below shows that Leclerc and Antonelli share very similar speeds along the main straight, though Leclerc loses ground on subsequent straights.

It appears Ferrari’s tactical play in Mexico will be deploying the bulk of their electrical energy along the main, longest straight to defend against faster cars, saving battery reserves for the tighter sections where overtaking is much tougher and their car handles superbly.

Leclerc is exceptionally quick through the opening sequence of Turns 1, 2, and 3; and although he bleeds time between Turns 3 and 4, he steadily builds a comfortable margin through the remainder of the lap.

However, FP2 reveals the true competitive order as the track speeds up, teams push harder, and the rookie drivers clear out.

Leclerc remained fastest, but McLaren emerged as an unexpected threat, with Norris slotting in just a tenth shy of the Monegasque’s benchmark.

Data analysis shows that Leclerc builds his advantage right at the start of Sector 2.

At the start of the lap, Leclerc, Norris, and Russell (who logged the third-fastest time) share an identical top speed of 350 km/h down the start-finish straight. Such an even spread across teams is rare, explained once again by the thin air allowing cars to reach high terminal speeds more quickly.

Norris is slower through the first three corners but claws that deficit back with a more aggressive deployment profile between Turns 3 and 4. From there, the Ferrari driver carves out an advantage through the initial slow-speed turns of the middle sector.

Much like last weekend, the SF-26 excels in slow-speed corners with a very well-balanced setup, also showing a more aggressive approach to kerbs thanks to a softer suspension tuning. This aids traction in low-speed turns, which will be vital for managing rear-axle temperatures during the race.

Mercedes lack this characteristic, opting instead for a stiffer rear setup. While this helps rotate the car quicker in slow corners to combat understeer, it could prove risky during long stints on race day.

Between Turns 6 and 7, Ferrari pay the price for their earlier aggressive deployment, leaving all three drivers virtually neck-and-neck after that straight.

However, where Leclerc regains his edge is Turn 12, a heavy braking zone that highlights another strength of the red car: braking performance.

Data shows Leclerc braking later than his rivals into both Turn 1 and Turn 12, snatching vital chunks of time at each point.

Combined with a stellar run through the ultra-slow stadium section, he sets the benchmark for the field. It remains to be seen how and where the competitive balance will shift later tonight during qualifying.

How do the race pace simulations look?

FP2 also demonstrated that overtaking will prove difficult, placing a premium on qualifying position and race pace, where tyre temperature management will be critical.

Interestingly, Norris, Verstappen, and Russell conducted their race simulations on softs, while Antonelli, Leclerc, and Hadjar ran mediums, yet their overall pace appeared remarkably similar.

In terms of average lap times, Norris edged it just ahead of Verstappen, who experienced minor issues regarding qualifying-trim pace.

Degradation appears evenly matched across the board, with no single team standing out as exceptionally strong or particularly poor on long runs. This suggests soft and medium compounds will likely form the strategic bedrock for Sunday’s Grand Prix.

The strongest takeaway, however, is how tightly packed the field is. Considering we can expect further performance gains from FP2 to FP3, virtually everyone appears to be in the fight for victory in Mexico City, promising a thrilling remainder of the weekend.