Celtic have roughly a one-in-three chance of progressing from the Europa League’s league phase, according to Opta’s latest forecast.

The figures put Martin O’Neill’s side on course to finish 29th with 7 points, outside the qualification places.

Opta’s predicted table, updated on October 21, gives Celtic a 33.12% chance of finishing between ninth and 24th, which would secure a knockout phase play-off place.

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There is a further 0.58% chance of a top-eight finish, bringing their overall probability of progressing to 33.70%.

Those are model predictions rather than a verdict on how the remaining matches will unfold. But they underline the difficult position Celtic have put themselves in.

Defeats to Ferencvaros and Benfica have left the Hoops without a point after two games, with Celta Vigo visiting Parkhead on Thursday.

Celtic badly need a victory to get their campaign moving and avoid leaving themselves with even more ground to recover.

For that to happen, Celtic must turn encouraging passages of play into results.

The manager took positives from the second half against Benfica, while Sunday’s 7-1 victory over Hearts provided a substantial confidence boost.

Celtic attacked with purpose and showed the clinical edge that had been missing from some of their earlier performances.

Thursday will demand more defensive discipline alongside that attacking threat.

Three points against Celta would be a significant first step towards progression. Another European disappointment would leave the Hoops facing an increasingly uncomfortable route to the knockout rounds.