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Last season, Luka Dončić got close to the MVP conversation but was far away from winning the award.
Now, with the Lakers preparing to begin their 2026–27 regular season, four-time NBA champion Draymond Green has made a bold prediction about Dončić’s chances of winning the prestigious award.
Ona recent episode of “The Draymond Green Show,” Green suggested the upcoming season could be Dončić’s final chance to win his first MVP award.
“Luka will never win an MVP in the NBA. This is the last possible year he can win it,” Green said during the segment.
Green argued that Dončić and Jayson Tatum have set the bar so high that elite scoring no longer feels special to fans or voters. If Dončić puts up 34 points a night, people shrug and say that’s what he does. If Tatum goes for 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists, same reaction. There’s no real surprise and not much appreciation either.
“If Luka go average 34 points a game, they’re gonna be like, oh, yeah, of course Luka averages 34 points a game. And it’s like, JT can go average 30.”
“They’re gonna be like, ‘Oh, yeah, we know he can average 30 points a game. Both of them can average 30, 11, and 8. Oh, yeah, we know they’re supposed to.’ Like, and it won’t be viewed as somebody else averaging those numbers. It’s like people get fatigued of it. The same thing happened with LeBron James. You can’t tell me he only should have four MVPs,” Green added during the segment.
During the 2025–26 campaign, Dončić led the NBA in scoring with 33.5 points per game. However, despite those numbers, he finished fourth in the MVP voting.
Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander claimed the award for the second consecutive season as he received 83 of the 100 first-place votes. SGA had a strong case after leading the Thunder to a league-best 64 wins. He also averaged 31.1 points per game on 55% shooting while making an impact on both ends of the floor.
Meanwhile, Dončić’s MVP chances suffered because of his limited availability. He appeared in only 64 games, requiring a special eligibility appeal, before a hamstring injury ended his season early.
However, the Lakers star has already shown glimpses of his scoring ability during the 2026 preseason. Dončić scored 21 points in limited minutes against the Sacramento Kings before adding another 23 points in a home victory over the Kings. He also recorded 15 points in the first half against the Denver Nuggets, although the Lakers eventually lost (121-106).
The Slovenian guard also missed both preseason matchups against the Golden State Warriors as the Lakers managed his workload ahead of the regular season.
For now, it remains to be seen whether Dončić can produce numbers similar to last season and put himself back in the MVP conversation.