The NFL trade deadline has passed. While the winners and losers won’t be known for a few years, early impressions are all we have to go off. 

In Minnesota, elation. The Vikings have a quarterback who gives them hope after eight games of horrific play, having brought in Kirk Cousins for his second tour of duty in the Twin Cities. Meanwhile, the Chiefs added to their offensive arsenal, giving Patrick Mahomes a talented wideout in Josh Downs to pair with Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce.

Yet in other NFL corners, there are the sellers. While the Titans moved on from Jeffery Simmons and gained a pair of first-round picks before dealing safety Amani Hooker to the Bills for a second-rounder, their AFC South brethren didn’t recoup quite as much. 

The Colts, long seen as the biggest potential seller at the deadline, failed to net more than one top-100 pick despite trading away four players, electing to hold onto quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor. 

And now that we’re at the midway point of the season, we take a look at what it means to be in a playoff spot right now. Using the current format’s history as a guide, the answer might surprise you. 

What history says about playoff positioning at the midway point

We’re officially midway through the 2026 NFL season. In the AFC, the playoff teams are (in seeding order) the Bills, Broncos, Jaguars, Steelers, Chiefs, Bengals, and Patriots. In the NFC, it’s the 49ers, Bears, Giants, Panthers, Lions, Vikings, and Packers.

But what does that mean for the eventual playoff bracket? Since the postseason field expanded to 14 teams in the 2020 season, 84 teams have entered the playoffs. As Week 9 concluded, 63 were in a playoff spot (75%). Only twice has a conference’s entire field been completely decided: the ’22 NFC and ’24 AFC. Furthermore, of the 48 teams leading their divisions as Week 9 ended, 30 remained in that spot (62.5%) at season’s end. 

On average, each conference currently has five playoff teams that will remain there when the season concludes. The division winners are much more fluid, with five of the races likely staying the same at the top.

It’ll be fascinating to see if this year’s AFC crop gives us another clean sweep of teams that survive from Week 9. The Texans might be the biggest threat, but they’ve already suffered five losses, while the seventh-seeded Patriots lead by 1.5 games at 5–4. The only division races likely finished are the AFC East (Bills), AFC South (Jaguars) and NFC West (49ers), with the other five still hotly contested. 

Bottom line: The season isn’t over for those not in a playoff spot, but the odds are against them.

Kirk Cousins goes back to Minnesota as a potential savior

Who says you can’t go home again? Kirk Cousins did exactly that on Tuesday, getting dealt from the Raiders to the quarterback-desperate Vikings for a 2027 third-round pick. Cousins, who spent 2018 to ’23 with Minnesota, now goes from a 4–5 Las Vegas team to the 6–2 Vikings, giving them a real chance to compete. 

“It’s pretty rare to get a guy we know, who has played well this year and played really well for us before,” a team source texted Wednesday morning. “He and our guys have played together before, [and I] look forward to them playing together again.”

The most underrated part of the deal is that Cousins doesn’t have to learn coach Kevin O’Connell’s complex offense. After spending two years in the system before moving to the Falcons, Cousins steps into a familiar role. Incredibly, in a league where the annual turnover rate is enormous, he still has the same top two receivers, All-Pro Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. 

Ironically, Cousins was long seen as an impediment to winning a Super Bowl in Minnesota. He was viewed as a quarterback who was good but rarely great. Now, good would be more than enough to propel the Vikings into contender status while getting fans to do backflips, especially after watching Carson Wentz go 8-of-25 for 81 yards, two interceptions and a lost fumble in Monday night’s loss to the Bills. 

Cousins was rock solid for the Raiders in nine starts, throwing for 2,340 yards with 20 touchdowns against eight interceptions, despite having tight end Brock Bowers and little else in the passing game. Now, he has Jefferson and Addison on the perimeter with T.J. Hockenson as an outlet. 

At 6–2, Cousins arrives in Minnesota at the perfect time. The Vikings have a rematch with the Packers this weekend at Lambeau Field before going to Mexico City for a prime-time date with the 7–1 49ers. If Kyler Murray or Wentz were starting, both games would be a likely defeat. Now, the Vikings have the firepower to give their league-leading defense a fighting chance. 

Why the Chiefs targeted Josh Downs

The Chiefs spent the past few weeks aggressively pursuing a receiver ahead of the trade deadline, willing to move significant draft capital if needed. After several calls, Kansas City ultimately zeroed in on Colts wideout Josh Downs, acquiring him Tuesday along with a 2027 seventh-round pick for ’27 fourth- and fifth-round selections. This season, Downs has 33 catches for 354 yards and a touchdown.

Downs, 25, gives the Chiefs a skill set they’ve been searching for. In speaking with a personnel executive in Kansas City, the team sees Downs as a talented slot receiver who gives the Chiefs a vertical threat between the numbers. Since Week 4, when Tyquan Thornton was lost to a dislocated ankle, the longest reception Kansas City has gotten from a receiver is 23 yards. Over the past four games, that room has produced two explosive plays (20-plus yards). In Downs, the Chiefs are hoping to regain some of their lost big-play ability, as he’s produced five this year. 

As importantly, Kansas City also believes Downs gives the offense someone who can beat man coverage, something that has been a problem for years in Kansas City. While Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce feast on zone defenses, Rice has always struggled against man coverage, and Kelce’s lack of speed hurts him in that area. 

Finally, look for Downs to be a factor on special teams. The Chiefs waived longtime punt returner Nikko Remigio on Wednesday, and the executive indicated Downs could be used in that capacity. Downs returned 32 punts in Indianapolis, including two this season. Through nine weeks, the Chiefs rank 30th in yards per punt return (5.6) with a lost fumble.

Downs isn’t a star, but he could prove vital for a Kansas City team looking to make a postseason push.

Surprise about the Colts not dealing Jonathan Taylor

The Colts traded away more players than any other team at the deadline. They moved All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the NFC West before beating the buzzer on Tuesday afternoon by sending receiver Keenan Allen to the 49ers and Josh Downs to the Chiefs. 

However, some inside the league are surprised Indianapolis didn’t go further, specifically with Jonathan Taylor. In speaking with one general manager, he thought the Colts would move Taylor to make the looming GM job more attractive, especially since Indianapolis doesn't have its 2027 first-round pick due to the Sauce Gardner trade.

Instead, the Colts held firm on Taylor and kept him around on a team going nowhere, presumably to sell tickets and give fans a reason to watch the final eight games. Still, the Colts could have gotten at least a second-round pick and more for Taylor, giving them the option to move into the first round in April if they wanted to.

The Colts now have 10 picks in 2027, seven of them on Day 3. Still, Indianapolis is in better shape than some other noncontending teams like the Chargers, who mystifyingly decided to hold onto veterans such as Khalil Mack, Donte Jackson and Quentin Johnston despite being 0–8. 

A final thought on the Colts: It will be intriguing to see if Taylor gets traded in the offseason under new leadership. His contract runs through 2028, but he has no guaranteed money remaining beyond this year. If he’s dealt, Indianapolis would save $16 million and $17.9 million in the upcoming two seasons. It might be time to cut bait. 

How the Packers discovered the deep ball

On Sunday, in the Packers’ 45–27 win over the Patriots at Gillette Stadium, Jordan Love entered the MVP conversation. 

Love was brilliant, not only amassing 372 yards and three touchdowns, but doing so with poise. Throughout the evening, it was bombs away to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, who caught passes of 49, 43, 43, 39, 33, 28 and 24 yards. One after the next, Love went for broke, and his receivers rewarded him. 

Speaking to one Packers source, the connection has been in the making all season. The source cited a continued, evolving relationship with Watson and Golden, the latter emerging as a superstar in his second season (52 catches, 783 yards and five touchdowns). 

But it’s also about Love’s mastery of coverage, which gives him an increasing ability to take calculated risks. But perhaps the biggest change has been the offensive line, which has given Love the protection to get the ball downfield. But perhaps the biggest chance has been the offensive line, affording Love protection to get the ball down the field.

Over the first six weeks, Green Bay allowed 46 quarterback hits and 13 sacks. Across the past three games, those numbers have shrunk to 11 QB hits and four sacks. This week will provide a great test against Minnesota coordinator Brian Flores and the Vikings. In Week 1, Minnesota sacked Love four times and hit him 15 times. 

If Love can keep firing behind a revitalized offensive line, and All-Pro defensive end Micah Parsons returns in form, the Packers are a top-level contender.