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Big 12 football bowl projections after Week 7 results

After a chaotic week in college football, including BYU's defeat of Notre Dame, bowl and playoff projections have shifted rapidly. The Cougars are now a consensus top-four team, giving them a first-round bye in the playoffs. Texas Tech and Utah are also in the playoff picture.

ESPN released its updated projections after Week 7, as did USA TODAY Sports and CBS Sports. All outlets rank BYU in the top four, but only one analyst projects the Cougars to reach the National Championship game. 

ESPN is the only outlet projecting Texas Tech to make the playoffs, with one analyst believing they will win in the first round but not the second. CBS Sports is also the only outlet that no longer projects Utah to make the playoffs, after previously being the only outlet to project they would.

Here are their updated bowl projections. Among the Big 12 teams, Colorado and Kansas remain the only teams no outlet projects to make a bowl game. 

Colorado Buffaloes

Oct 3, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA;  Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Isaac Wilson (16) prepares to pass in the second quarter against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Folsom Field.  Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

After narrowly losing to Utah on Saturday, the Colorado Buffaloes are 2-4 after starting the year 2-0. Their remaining schedule is brutal, with games against Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati and UCF. They would have to win four of those games to become bowl-eligible. Houston is currently ranked in the AP poll, while Oklahoma State was ranked before losing to the Cougars. It will be an uphill battle for Colorado to make a bowl game, but a slim chance remains.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oct 17, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA;  Texas Tech Red Raiders wide receiver Kenny Johnson (2) rushes against Arizona State Sun Devils safety Montana Warren (7) in the first half at Galaxy Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

Texas Tech is officially bowl-eligible after beating Arizona State for their sixth win over the weekend. However, they have much greater aspirations. They finally got their offense going, scoring 53 points against the Sun Devils. If their offense can maintain this level of production, they can make the playoffs either by winning the conference or as an at-large team.

UCF Knights

Oct 10, 2026; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA;  UCF Knights huddle during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images

Sitting at 3-3, the Knights are on the bubble and must play BYU next. However, they also face Kansas, Iowa State, and Colorado, all winnable games for UCF. It would be fun to see them play NC State, which has a talented quarterback in CJ Bailey.

Baylor Bears

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA;  Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) warms up before the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at McLane Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Baylor is confusing. After crushing Arizona State by over 30 points, they lost to TCU after two weeks to prepare. At 4-2, the Bears should have no problem winning a bowl game, but they also shouldn't have had trouble with the Horned Frogs. They still get to play Kansas and Iowa State, but also have to face BYU, Texas Tech and Houston. Baylor should be able to get into a bowl game, but they need to avoid any more losses to teams they shouldn't lose to.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Oct 17, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA;  Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Cutter Boley (8) passes against Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive end Adam Tick (20) in the first half at Galaxy Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

Arizona State had high hopes going into this season, but they haven't lived up to the hype. They are 3-3 and still have to play BYU, Oklahoma State, and Arizona. The Sun Devils still have a real chance of missing the bowl game. But if they do, it seems logical that it will be the Poinsettia Bowl.

Houston Cougars

Oct 17, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars running back Re'shaun Sanford II (6) runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Houston is a strong team, and their win over Oklahoma State proved it. At 6-1, with their only loss coming against Texas Tech, the Cougars still have a real chance to make the Big 12 championship game. Odds are they will not make the playoffs, but could certainly end up in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

BYU Cougars

Oct 9, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars cornerback Therrian Alexander III (1) as seen during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

After BYU's win over Notre Dame, they are now viewed as a top-four team in the country, earning a first-round bye in the play. They differ on how far they believe the Cougars will go. USA TODAY, CBS Sports and Schlabach with ESPN all believe BYU will lose in the first round. However, Bonagura has more faith in the Cougars, projecting they will reach the National Championship game to face Miami. No Big 12 team has won the National Championship in the CFP era, but BYU could become the first.

Kansas State Wildcats

Oct 17, 2026; Manhattan, Kansas, USA;  Kansas State Wildcats cornerback Nick McClellan (34) is congratulated by teammates following a safety in the first quarter against the Kansas Jayhawks at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

Sitting at 4-2, the Wildcats have a real chance of making a bowl game for the fifth time in the past six years. They have history in the Texas Bowl and have been projected to make the Texas Bowl for quite some time, so it would not be surprising if that is ultimately how this season ends.

Utah Utes

Oct 17, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA;  Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) prepares to pass in the second quarter against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field.  Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

This is rather bizarre from CBS Sports. After projecting the Utes to make the playoffs for the past several weeks, they are now the only outlet that doesn't have Utah in the playoff picture. However, even among analysts who believe Utah will make the playoffs, they don't think the Utes will go far. USA TODAY and Schlabach have them getting knocked out in the first round. Bonagura has more confidence in the Big 12, projecting they will make it to the Fiesta Bowl but then lose to Georgia. The Big 12 is a stacked conference, and Utah could be one of three conference teams in the playoffs.

Arizona Wildcats

Oct 10, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Arizona Wildcats running back Antwan Roberts (44) scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Arizona was on bye last week after beating West Virginia two weeks earlier. Noah Fifita is one of the conference's best quarterbacks. Clemson has a strong defense despite its poor offense, so it will be fun to see the Tigers' defense face Fifita and Arizona's offense.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Oct 17, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA;  Cincinnati Bearcats running back Cole Tabb (3) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Milan Puskar Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Cincinnati started the year 4-0 but has lost its last two games to Arizona and West Virginia. Their next three games are against Texas Tech, Utah, and Houston, and they also have to play BYU. Their best shot at a bowl game is beating Iowa State and Colorado, both of which are winnable for the Bearcats.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Oct 17, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA;  West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver DJ Epps (2) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Milan Puskar Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images

West Virginia finally got their first Big 12 win against Cincinnati. With a 4-3 record and games against TCU and Kansas on the horizon, the Mountaineers should land a bowl game. However, their other three games are against Texas Tech, Houston, and Utah. So, if they mess up against the Horned Frogs or Jayhawks, they could miss a bowl trip.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oct 17, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys wide receiver Wyatt Young (10) reacts after a touchdown reception during the third quarter against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Seeing Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker face SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings would be a fun matchup. It would also be fun to see the Cowboys play Missouri. With a 4-2 record and their remaining schedule, they should certainly make it to one of these bowl games.

Iowa State Cyclones

Oct 9, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Jaylen Raynor (1) Hans the ball off to running back Aiden Flora (21) during the second half at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

The Cyclones were viewed as the worst team in the Big 12, but they still have a shot at a bowl game. They are 3-3 and still have five unranked games to play. Few analysts think they will make a bowl game, but it wouldn't surprise anyone if they reach the Independence Bowl.

TCU Horned Frogs

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA;  TCU Horned Frogs edge rusher CJ Woodfork (9) reacts after a play against the Baylor Bears during the second half at McLane Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images

After their surprise win against Baylor, TCU is now 3-3. They still have three ranked games left: Arizona, Utah and Texas Tech. Their other three games are against West Virginia, Kansas and Kansas State. It will be close, but the Horned Frogs actually could find themselves in a bowl game when the season ends.

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