Week 10’s NFL playoff scenarios hinge most on Cincinnati, where the Steelers’ AFC North title odds swing 47 points on Sunday night’s result. No team in either conference has a wider gap, according to the PFN Playoff Meter: 65% with a win, 18% with a loss.

Pittsburgh’s playoff odds move 11 points on the same game, and that split is the clearest way to read the slate. Set any team’s division swing beside its playoff swing, and the gap shows whether it’s playing for a title, a berth or both.

Week 10 Playoff Scenarios: Steelers-Bengals Swings the AFC North Race

Both teams enter at 6-2 riding four-game winning streaks, and Pittsburgh already owns a 30-27 win over Cincinnati from Sept. 27. Steelers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters after the bye that his team has “a chance to sweep the Bengals.”

The sweep threat explains Cincinnati’s cliff. The Meter makes the Bengals 61% favorites at home, yet their division odds fall from 78% with a win to 32% with a loss. A 7-2 Pittsburgh team holding the head-to-head tiebreaker would effectively sit two games clear.

The loser stays a strong playoff bet. Cincinnati holds 92% with a loss and Pittsburgh 84%, so Sunday night decides the inside track to a home playoff game.

The AFC’s biggest playoff swing, 28 points, comes earlier, at 1 p.m. ET in Cleveland, where the 5-4 Browns sit at 47% with a win over Houston and 19% with a loss. The 3-5 Texans swing 20 points, from 6% to 26%, and the Meter calls it a 50-50 game.

Neither club’s division odds move more than four points, which makes Browns-Texans a wild-card elimination game in mid-November. “We’re right there in the mix,” Browns coach Todd Monken said after a 23-22 overtime loss at New Orleans handed Cleveland its first two-game skid of the season.

New England carries the AFC’s second-largest playoff swing (24 points) into Sunday morning’s game against Detroit in Munich. The 5-4 Patriots hold the No. 7 seed after a 45-27 loss to Green Bay, and their playoff odds run from 46% to 70%. With Buffalo at 7-1, New England’s AFC East odds top out at 9%.

Those three teams, plus Las Vegas, are chasing what amounts to one seat. Five AFC teams stay at 84% or better even with a Week 10 loss, and Denver sits at 95% on its bye.

Packers vs. Vikings Carries the NFC’s Biggest Week 10 Swings

The NFC’s two largest swings of either kind belong to one game at Lambeau Field. Minnesota’s NFC North odds run from 24% to 52%, a 28-point gap, and Green Bay’s playoff odds run from 56% to 82%, a 26-point gap. The Meter makes the Vikings 51% favorites.

Minnesota won the Sept. 13 opener 39-22, so a loss would leave Green Bay swept and at 3% division odds. The Vikings stay at 83% to make the playoffs even with a loss. The 6-3 Packers sit last in the division, and their wild-card path gets crowded fast, with Chicago (7-2) at 87% on its bye and Detroit (6-2) at 69% even if it loses in Munich.

The NFC South works differently. Carolina’s division odds at New Orleans (12% with a loss, 30% with a win) nearly mirror its playoff odds (13% and 31%), and the Saints and Falcons show the same overlap. With all four teams at least two games under .500, the Meter sees almost no wild-card path out of the division. The 3-5 Panthers’ playoff swing, second only to Green Bay’s in the NFC, is a division swing in disguise.

The 5-4 Rams live at the opposite extreme. San Francisco (7-1) holds 88% NFC West odds even with a loss in Dallas, capping the Rams at 2% in the division. Their playoff odds swing 18 points at Arizona, from 15% to 33%, so every path to January runs through the wild card.

Ten NFC teams carry at least 10 points of playoff swing into Week 10, twice as many as the AFC. Green Bay sits atop that list, at home, against a team that beat it by 17 in September. Lose again, and the Packers become a 6-4 team with a 56% shot at January.