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How Much of a Concern is the Wizards' Low 3-Point Attempt Rate?

The Washington Wizards are near the bottom of the league in long-range hoists, and that gap between their style and the rest of the league's tendencies was felt in a recent victory.

Oct 30, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards forward Kyshawn George (18) shoots the ball over Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller (24) in the second half in an NBA Cup game at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Washington Wizards are a tough team to prepare for as one of the NBA's youngest operations. Recently-acquired All-Star names like Anthony Davis and Trae Young are mostly-surrounded by a supporting cast of freshly-drafted prospects who've yet to collectively taste anything resembling a winning atmosphere, and that green inexperience has shown in their early tendencies.

Through just a half-dozen matchups to commence their regular season, several key trends have persisted between the Washington Wizards' momentous wins and their frustrating losses. Chief among opposing teams' scouting reports have been their league-low offensive rebounding rate of 26% and their second-to-last-ranked 3-point attempt clip of 31.6 tries per game; just one of those behind-the-curve marks is doomed to haunt anyone on a given night, but two make it quite difficult to explain how the Wizards got to 3-3 to begin with.

Oct 30, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards forward AJ Dybantsa (4) reacts after being fouled while scoring against the Charlotte Hornets in the second half in an NBA Cup game at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The answer to that reaction is simple: they're a talented roster, certainly more so than most of the east-based knuckleheads they've had to contend with. But all of those added names invite rotational battles and questions of identity, and the Wizards, having already lost a few winnable ones due to their getting beaten and eaten up on the glass, have a lot of work to do in patching both of those stylistic needs.

Look no further than their most recent win, a 95-79 victory over the Charlotte Hornets. They at least made the battle for the boards close this time around despite surrendering over twice as many offensive rebounds as they themselves collected, a bit of a bounce-back for the Wizards' loss to these same Hornets earlier in the week, but they also pulled a mere 30 threes to Charlotte's 56.

The Hornets were as likely a candidate to live and die by the three as anyone, launching nearly a dozen such attempts per game thus far, but it's not like the Wizards have made their own offensive intentions clear between the low 3-point volume and their similarly-unimpressive hit rate. Is their continually-finding themselves behind the times a result of growing pains, or something systematic?

Understanding the Wizards' Spacing Personnel

Wizards head coach Brian Keefe is plenty aware of the numerical deficit, pointing to a few possible explanations for the Wizards' picky shot diet.

"I think were one of the better teams finishing around the rim," he told On SI following the Hornets victory. "Our free throw differential was pretty big, I'm guessing. Those are some of the strengths of our team. But then you saw we made timely threes, we were kicking the ball out...those are the things we're gonna learn and grow as teams make adjustments to how we're playing."

Though Keefe would be correct in identifying some of the Wizards' better contact-drawers and inside finishers as some of the likeliest sources for those missing 3-point chucks, it's also true that this season will require time and patience before this roster is consistently producing winning habits.

The explainable misses from the "shooters" have already begun testing the fan base. Young, Tre Johnson and Kyshawn George have hit on 26 of their combined 95 distant attempts, good for a collective 27.4% clip that's included a plethora of makeable misses from the prospects in particular. Johnson and George, each having already proven themselves as pillars of the offense, may each benefit from more simplified roles next to AJ Dybantsa, a newly-implemented scoring force who'll allow those wings even more fast break spot-up opportunities than they're already getting.

Jan 22, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards guard Tre Johnson (12) celebrates with guard Bub Carrington (7) during the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The frontcourt depth is less of a given. Davis and Dybantsa are more effective inside the arc as opposed to standing on its outskirts, and even though they're both effective-enough as passers, implementing each of those options alongside Alex Sarr all at the same time within the starting lineup is guaranteed to trigger some instant eye-test spacing concerns.

Sarr, specifically, has struggled to locate a consistent role to start the season. He surged to a sophomore year breakout when he started leaning on his outside jumper less often than he had as a messy rookie, but with a burlier, more decorated one-on-one scorer like AD taking up the high post, the seven-footer's been crammed into the corner as a spot-up option. Sarr's attempted 16 threes- including eight from the corners- to 26 two-pointers on the season through six games, with a few of his rare self-created looks arriving off of cuts and crashes from the floor's margins.

Even if makes a sudden jump from his current 25% outside hit rate, this still feels like poor optimization of Sarr given his high feel and pick-and-roll functionality. He deserves as much time to figure it out as anyone, given the summertime injury that cost him precious practice reps during the offseason, but Davis' pace-slowing repression of the offense will sustain as the obstacle to work around.

Second-string center Deandre Ayton, who's yet to pull a three yet this fall, will offer little relief in this regard. Sarr will have few chances to appear as the lone big when the roster's as healthy as it is now.

The Wizards already tapped into playing through a big with the Davis-centric lineups through the season's opening week, and the younger Sarr has the agility to run with Dybantsa with his full head of steam. As a part-time handler himself who's perfectly capable taking the ball up himself in transition, he'd be best-off absorbing attention as the lineup anchor during the young corps' minutes running the show as the fan base measures how he holds up when he has the freedom to score and rebound on his own. Their youth and energy were weapons in the open floor last year, and they'd be smart to leverage that back onto opponents during the rare moments in which Sarr's surrounded by the "shooters."

For the time being, he has plenty to gain from playing off of a savvy distributor like Young, as it's not like he's shown the consistency to earn a regular dosage of touches after putting up a quiet three points against the Hornets. He, as well as the streaky George and the fresh-faced Dybantsa, should serve as living, breathing reminders that development remains the primary focus in Washington.

As nice as their early record is, no one's shelling out for short-term veteran optimization if they sense an opportunity to plug one of their hungry prospects into a necessary role. They employ plenty of playmakers, rim-divers and shooters, even if the early-season numbers probably don't back up the presence of that last niche. Time, and plenty of it, will be required for the Wizards to figure out how to take full-advantage of the looks they fire upon.

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