As of Sunday, Orioles ace Trevor Rogers has just over a week to decide if he wants to stay with this ball club.

2026 marked the last year in his contract and after his most recent season the Orioles offered Rogers a qualifying contract of $23.15 million. He was their Opening Day starter and prone to wild swings in productivity, but at his best he was the best this team is quite some time (his 2025 campaaign in particular). Which makes for a cloudy future.

Performing like a Cy Young candidates amid a lost 2025 season, with the manager fired in May and Rogers spending the first few months of the season in AAA, will be remembered by O’s fans for a long time. Although he only pitched 18 games (a respectable sample size), the lefty put up an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP of 0.903, punching out 103 batters along the way. After acquiring him the year before, Rogers proved there were still shades of his 2021 year with the Marlins where he was Rookie of the Year runner-up (not to mention his only year as an All Star).

What Does The Future Hold?

Let’s get to the key question: Is a 29-year-old version of Trevor Rogers getting any better? Or more importantly, is he worth an actual multi-year deal out of owner Dave Rubenstein’s pocket? Probably not.

In his (potential) last year with the Orioles, Rogers saw decreases in almost every stat line compared to the year before. He averaged .43 less innings pitched per start and posed a +2.22 ERA differential. He also faced issues with his fastball, losing some arm-side movement (dropping from 11.5 to 10 inches) while losing some velocity as well. Sure, these stats are certainly a little nit-picky, but they also help explain the six-game span towards the middle of the year where gave up 29 earned runs.

While it wasn’t his best year, Rogers proved why he was chosen to front the rotiation. He exceled against lefties, putting up a .186 opponent BA paired with a .515 OPS. He also brought his ERA down from 5.30 to 4.03 in his last 15 games, proving he can fix his mistakes.

As mentioned before, Rogers has had dominant years in an O’s uniform and a bounce back to those years isn’t completely off the table. He’s a (mostly) consistent arm that won’t go deep into games as much as you might like, but will mix his pitches effectively while he’s out there. His battled lapses of confidence across multiple seasons, and has no playoff pedigree to speak of.

So this organization needs to be willing to pursue other options, including many that will be cheaper, President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias and newly appointed GM Jared Banner must consider the trade alternatives.

Other Options

Reid Detmers

Detmers made all 32 starts and had a 3.36 ERA over 185 innings, striking out 28.5% of batters against a 6.5% walk rate with the Angels. He’s projected at $7.5 million for 2027 and should make about $20 million total across his two arbitration years. With Detmers you’re getting a similar if not higher-quality pitcher at a much cheaper price.

Ryan Weathers

The Yankees starter held a mid-three ERA over a career-high 25 starts. Over his last 262⅓ innings, he held batters to a 47.2% ground-ball rate. Weathers is projected at only $3.1 million in arbitration. The O's were deep in talks with the Yankees about Adley Rutschman, so it's not like they won't do business with them. This would be a far lesser scale.

Shane McClanahan

After a Tommy John recovery cost him two seasons, McClanahan showed no signs of it when he punched out 106 in 188 innings pitched, going 10-7 with a 3.36 ERA. The Baltimore-born lefty is as consistent as it gets if he stays healthy, and he is someone who merits strong consideration.

The Bottom Line

Trevor Rogers will most likely turn down the O’s offer. His projected contract is four years at $76 million, according to Kiley McDaniel at ESPN. Instead of trying to outbid teams like the Cardinals and White Sox, the Orioles should focus on saving some money while finding a replacement that can do his job and more.

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