The last time Everton played in the Carabao Cup, they were in the process of putting a miserable end to the transfer window behind them by adding to their unbeaten run with another clean sheet. On the pitch the Toffees hadn’t really taken any body blows – fast forward to the present and things look very different.

The horrific effects of deadline day are really starting to show, the Blues have long since relinquished their unbeaten run, they are conceding goals too regularly while not threatening up the other end, while the mood around the place feels as flat as an undercooked pancake.

Time for the Carabao Cup to provide a welcome distraction, right? Evertonians have long pined for a romantic cup run, with the journey to the 2009 FA Cup final still the closest thing to success some younger fans can remember.

Oftentimes, the negative effects of a bad run in the league can be put right with the feelgood factor that comes from an inspiring run in the cup. But does this apply to Everton? There are arguments that suggest we should go all out for a trophy and release a handbrake we have infuriatingly had on in the past, but there are also valid reasons to not get swept away in the romance of a run in a cup we’ve never fared well in.

The Case for Caution

The chances of a club of Everton’s size going far in the cup competitions while simultaneously having a prosperous season in the league are pretty thin. We did it 17 years ago, but football was less demanding on players’ bodies back then and we also had a deeper squad – try not to remember that our two right-backs in the final were Tony Hibbert and Lars Jacobsen, the latter now destined to be a pub-quiz answer.

Even in the very early stages of the campaign, we are seeing what negative effects Europe is having on teams like Nottingham Forest, Sunderland and Bournemouth, although the latter are showing signs of recovery after a dreadful start. The Toffees fully focussing on a Carabao Cup run might just have a similar effect on a campaign that is already showing signs of gradually unfolding.

What do we do if one of the better players in the starting XI picks up a serious injury? A Jarrad Branthwaite, a Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, a James Garner? Or a player who isn’t as key but all we’ve got in that position? A Vitalii Mykolenko, an Ainsley Maitland-Niles or a Thierno Barry?

Let us hypothesise that Newcastle turn us over at the Hill Dickinson Stadium and one or two of those names pick up serious injuries in the clash. The evening will go down as an unmitigated disaster as opposed to an annoying loss that will quickly be forgotten.

It is easy to respond that this is a moot point as we are indulging in whatabouteries, but the hypotheticals take on more weight when you realise that we can barely rotate players who are playing for 90 minutes every weekend, making injuries considerably more likely.

Is it worth risking the long-term health of vital players in a competition we are massively unlikely to win? Which brings us to our next point. How likely are the Blues to lift the Carabao Cup?

Moyes and the Big-Game Problem

In order to lift a trophy, you inevitably have to beat one of the big boys, if not two or three of them. Have David Moyes’ men got the mentality for this? As we saw last weekend, Moyes’ big-game credentials are still bordering on non-existent. In that cup final against Chelsea, after taking the lead in the first minute the plan was to defend the 18-yard box for the next 95. You didn’t get close to getting away with those reactive tactics then and you certainly don’t now.

A lack of mentality in the big games, a ridiculously thin squad and the complete and historic absence of good fortune when it matters most means that the Toffees are massive long shots to win the cup – something worth considering when Moyes selects his starting XI.

The Case for Going for It

However, there are counters to these points. They all follow a coldly logical idea, but in order to win a cup, that has to go out of the window. It doesn’t happen often, but Wigan and Leicester are recent examples of comparatively provincial sides who have pulled off an improbable triumph.

If the Blues continue to put themselves down and don’t believe in the seemingly impossible, then the seemingly impossible will become completely impossible.

Additionally, there is no getting away from the fact Everton are in a rut right now and with tough fixtures coming up in the league, it might have to be a cup journey that lifts us out of this down period and rebuilds the confidence we need to drag ourselves clear of a collection of many teams who are perilously close to being dragged into a relegation fight.

Also, winning in the cup propels you further than three points in the league does. A win in the latter might see you remain in the same place and not alleviate any of the pressure on you, but a win against Newcastle means that the Toffees would just be three victories away from a trophy. That sounds very nice doesn’t it?

Newcastle First, Then a Dream

Logic dictates that Everton might be wise not to throw everything at this clash with Newcastle on Merseyside, and perhaps prioritise the away clash in the Premier League with the same opponents four days later.

But logic also dictated that Arsenal would see off Fleetwood with ease on Tuesday, but fall they did. With the biggest of the big boys out of the way, maybe the Blues can quietly and cautiously start to widen their eyes at the prospect of a triumphant Carabao Cup campaign?