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Latest AFC North Projections Favor Bengals Ahead of Ravens Showdown

The Bengals are AFC North favorites according to one metric.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) gives a thumbs up after the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 5 game between the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026. The Bengals improved to 3-2 on the season with a 31-24 win on the road. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Bengals have emerged as the projected AFC North favorites entering Week 7 after the Browns pulled off a massive upset win over the Ravens on Sunday. The Bengals are the favorite to win the division at 40.7%, while the Ravens' chances dropped to 39.2% according to ESPN analytics.

The Steelers have a 15% chance to win the division and the Browns have a 5.1% chance, despite being 4-2 on the season.

The Bengals Could Control the Division by Week 9

Oct 11, 2026; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) laughs with quarterback Joe Burrow (9) before the game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Bengals now face a crucial three-game stretch, with a chance to win in Baltimore this week. Should they beat the Ravens, they then face the Titans before traveling to Madrid to play the Falcons in Week 9.

Given the current state of all those teams and the Bengals having had time to get healthy over their bye week, they could realistically go 3-0 this stretch. The Browns and Steelers play each other in Week 8, while the Ravens go on to play the Bills in Buffalo and welcome the Jaguars to Baltimore in Week 9.

If the Bengals handle business against the Ravens, they could enter Week 10 with a 6-2 record. That would set up a game that could ulitimately decide the winner of the division against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football.

Pittsburgh could enter that game with a 6-2 record as well, with a game against the Saints next week, with the clash with the Browns after.

Beating the Ravens This Week is the Highest Priority

Dec 14, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) meet after the game at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The toughest opponent in the division for the Bengals remains the Ravens even after they fell to the Browns. Baltimore has been without Lamar Jackson for the last two weeks, and all signs point to his return this week when Joe Burrow and company travel to Baltimore.

Regardless of the Browns' and Steelers' current records, the Ravens have the most potential to threaten the Bengals. Jackson has only lost to the Bengals three times in his career, with 11 total victories. Derrick Henry, meanwhile, has run all over the Bengals during his time with the Ravens, with 320 rushing yards and three touchdowns over four meetings.

If the Bengals are going to compete this season, they have to at least show they can slow down Jackson and Henry. Adding Dexter Lawrence this offseason should help, as he should have as big an impact in this upcoming game as he has at any point this season so far.

Should they successfully defeat Baltimore and stop Henry and Jackson, the momentum they would carry into the next two weeks would be massive.

Sinking the Ravens to a 4-3 record, while defeating them in their own stadium, should set the team up for a great run in November and December. That, in turn, could be the turning point that helps the team regain the AFC North crown and make a deep playoff run.

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