It's a game that has long been circled on the calendars of the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Obviously, the Cowboys (6-3 4-2 in Big 12) wanted to test themselves against one of the best teams in the Big 12. The Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1) are the defending Big 12 Conference champions and are in the mix to go back to the title game this year.

With Utah undefeated and cruising toward the title game, the Red Raiders will be Utah’s opponent so long as they keep winning.

As for the Cowboys, they are bowl eligible for the first time in three years. So long as they keep winning, they have a shot to get to the Big 12 Championship game. The tiebreakers are not in their favor but as the movie line goes, “So you're saying there's a chance?” There is, but the Cowboys must beat the Red Raiders.

Plus, there are the obvious ties between Cowboys head coach Eric Morris and Texas Tech. He played there under Mike Leach and was later Patrick Mahomes’ offensive coordinator.

As the Cowboys prepare for a late kickoff against the Red Raiders (8:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN), here are four bold predictions, including the final score.

The Teams Will Combine for More Than 120 Points

ANOTHER TRIP TO THE HOUSE 🏠

Thomas Castellanos pass to Kenny Johnson for a 27-yd TD

📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/hHCJEp2MGO

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 31, 2026

Well, that is bold. But is it? The two teams combined for 119 points in their respective games last week. Both were facing awful defenses. While the Cowboys and the Red Raiders do have suspect defense, they’re objectively better than Kansas State’s and West Virginia’s units.

Oklahoma State is coming off scoring 66 points against Kansas State. The Cowboys broke their record for most points scored in a game in Manhattan and did it by the end of the first half (49 points). Oklahoma State has given up its share of points —27.2 ppg overall and 31.7 ppg in league play. The Cowboys are two weeks removed from giving up 51 points to Iowa State.

The Red Raiders beat West Virginia in a 53-48 shootout. Texas Tech had a hard time slowing down Mountaineers quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and running back Cam Cook. The Cowboys know a little something about that. Texas Tech is giving up 24.1 ppg this season but 28.2 ppg in league games.

I think this is more about the offense. These are the two highest-scoring teams in Big 12 games. OSU is averaging 47.8 ppg while TTU is averaging 36.8 ppg. Both offenses are shredding opposing defenses. OSU quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receiver Justin Bowick might be the best set of triplets in the country. Texas Tech quarterback Thomas Castellanos has super-charged the offense since he took over as starter.  

This will be a shootout the likes of which the Big 12 hasn’t seen in some time. Take the over — if you’re into that sort of thing.

Drew Mestemaker Will Have His Best Game of the Season

Drew Mestemaker with another DOMINANT Day vs. Kansas State

🔺22/28 Passing
🔺313 Passing Yards & 4 Passing TDs
🔺1 Rushing TD

Highlights⬇️@CowboyFB pic.twitter.com/fmhyoUrvjC

— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) November 7, 2026

Drew Mestemaker is coming off a game in which he did something no other Big 12 player has ever done. He threw for four touchdown passes, rushed for a touchdown and caught a touchdown pass in the victory over Kansas State. Only one other player has done that in FBS in the last 30 years and that was Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch.

Mestemaker threw for five touchdowns against Iowa State two weeks ago. Against Colorado he threw for 386 yards, the closest he’s gotten to 400 yards passing. He is second in the country with 2,962 passing yards and first in the country with 29 touchdown passes.

OSU and TTU run the Air Raid offense. While Thomas Castellanos has done a great job of turning around Texas Tech’s offensive fortunes, Mestemaker is the better trigger man in this style of offense.

If I’m projecting that many points, then his numbers must be high, right? I’ll project he’ll hit that 400-yard passing plateau for the first time and throw for five touchdown passes. It's not that Texas Tech’s defense is that bad. Mestemaker and this offense are just that good.

He may throw a pick in this game. But he tends to make up for his mistakes quickly. The offense around him is clicking. The offensive line is healthy. He’s going to have a signature game.

The Cowboys Will Have the Key Defensive Play

Neither of these defenses are where they would like to be. Oklahoma State is two weeks removed from giving up 51 points to Iowa State. The unit snapped back against Kansas State, but it tends to experience some inconsistency week to week. Texas Tech gave up 48 points to West Virginia and the Cowboys’ defense allowed 28 — but that was the first conference game for both teams and the first half was a mess for OSU.

It’s all to say that both units have their issues. Oklahoma State cornerback LaDainian Fields is the most productive cornerback in the Big 12 with six interceptions in his last four games. If you’re looking for a big play it’s probably coming from him. If it’s Texas Tech, their linebackers are superb. Ben Roberts — last year’s Big 12 Championship Game outstanding defensive player — Austin Romaine and John Curry have all returned an interception for a touchdown. If there’s a big play to be made for Texas Tech, it will come from those three.

But OSU is going to make the key defensive play in this game. It will be late and it will either position the Cowboys for a late score to win or for a drive that puts the game on ice.

Score Prediction

Oklahoma State 67, Texas Tech 60

Yeah, I'm gonna go big. I think both of these offenses are in great position to be highly efficient on Saturday night and it would take an elite defense to slow either offense down. To be fair, I don’t think either defense is elite.

The Cowboys have their triplets, plus wide receiver Wyatt Young. The Red Raiders have Castellanos, along with running back J’Koby Williams and wide receiver Kenny Johnson. Coy Eakin is out for Tech, so that’s a hit to the receiving corps. But Castellanos’ legs can make up for some of that.

It all sets up for a late night at Boone Pickens Stadium, with Cowboys fans storming the field for a second time this season.