Voltar
After trading for Jaylen Brown and signing LeBron James, the Philadelphia 76ers were expected to be one of the very best teams in the league this season. Fast forward to today, and the 76ers are 10-3 and just a half-game back from the Boston Celtics for the first seed in the Eastern Conference. Sounds like the 76ers are living up to the hype, right?
However, records can be deceiving, especially this early in the season, and if you do a little bit of digging, you'll see that this 76ers team is far from perfect.
To clinch their 10th win of the season, the 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors. Despite the Raptors being shorthanded (not having Kawhi Leonard or Scottie Barnes), the 76ers had to come back from a 17-point deficit. In isolation, this is no big deal. With the widespread increase in 3-point volume, teams get super hot and cold all the time -- causing big leads to come and go in the blink of an eye.
However, one savvy NBA Reddit user noticed that this was not an isolated incident. Rather, it was part of a much larger trend. In their first 13 games, the 76ers have gone down by double digits on eight occasions, and five of their 10 wins required them to claw their way back from one of these deficits.
Consistently having to come from behind to win games can really put some tread on your team's tires. And given that the 76ers are the fifth-oldest team in the NBA when you adjust for minutes played, they can ill-afford to put any wear and tear on their vehicle.
This gets to a much larger problem the 76ers are facing. The 76ers are winning 76.9 percent of their games, which is the fourth-highest mark in the association. But riddle me this: if the 76ers are winning so many games, why are they only 14th in net rating?
Two words: clutch games. According to NBA.com, no team in the association has played more clutch games than the 76ers (eight), and Philadelphia is a perfect 8-0 in these games.
Given how many high-level on-ball offensive players the 76ers roster (James, Brown, Tyrese Maxey, and Joel Embiid), it makes sense that they would be uniquely-equipped to close out games. However, even when you factor that in, regression is in their future.
Truly great teams don't narrowly escape a bunch of close calls. They beat teams handedly. The more close games you play in, the more chances they have of being left vunerable to flukey stuff happening.
Right now, flukey good stuff is happening to them. Despite the 76ers not being a strong 3-point shooting team (they are 26th in 3-point attempts and 19th in 3-point percentage overall), Philadelphia is fourth in clutch 3-point percentage (47.1 percent). Meanwhile, their opponents are shooting just 33.3% from downtown. Given how volatile the three-ball is, this 14 percentage point margin the 76ers currently hold over their opponents won't last forever.
To put a bow on all this, Cleaning the Glass has a stat called "Win Diff," which tracks how many wins over/under their expected win total a team has. For the 76ers, that number is 3.1 wins, which is twice as high as the next highest team (the Charlotte Hornets).
Most of the time, when you've won 10 of your first 13 games, you should be feeling pretty good about yourself. But for the 76ers, it seems that they have some cracks in their armor that could reveal themselves to us pretty soon.