With three weeks left in the regular season, the Oklahoma State Cowboys know they'll play in some kind of postseason, most likely a bowl game.

But there's an outside chance that the Cowboys could find their way to the Big 12 Championship game. A lot must happen to make that a reality. But none of it can happen if the Cowboys (6-3, 4-2 in Big 12) lose to the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday night.

That's just one reason why this is such a big game for both teams. The Cowboys need a win to keep their faint hopes alive. The Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1) control their own destiny to get back to the championship game for a second straight year — as long as they keep winning.

Here are four storylines that I have my eye on going into the game.

School Ties

The stories are always interesting when head coaches face their alma maters and Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris’ ties to Texas Tech have been a big story this week in Stillwater.

He played at Texas Tech as a wide receiver under Mike Leach and was named an all-Big 12 punt returner his senior year.

He eventually followed Leach to Washington State to work as an assistant coach before going back to Tech to be the program’s offensive coordinator and tutoring several quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes.

Oklahoma State is his third stop as a head coach and he’s faced Tech before. But this is a different animal. It's a Big 12 game at night at Boone Pickens Stadium on a national stage. He knows the magnitude of this game. One of his best friends is a Red Raiders assistant coach. He played with another Red Raiders assistant coach. He even played with mega booster Cody Campbell.

Having dealt with coaches my entire life Morris wants to win this game — not because he wants to stick it to his alma mater but because he wants to try and keep the Cowboys in position to win a championship in the Big 12. You'd be amazed at how coaches can compartmentalize on nights like this.

He won’t have to worry about tortillas, just coaching his team. The common thread of his days in Lubbock will be front and center throughout the broadcast, if you're not lucky enough to be there in person. I'm interested to see how he feels about the whole experience after the game.

The Caleb Hawkins Renaissance

Caleb Hawkins with a 4 TOUCHDOWN DAY vs. Kansas State

🔥175 Rushing Yards
🔥3 Rushing TDs
🔥71 Rec Yards & 1 Rec TD

Highlights⬇️@CowboyFB pic.twitter.com/nEiv9XyoOu

— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) November 7, 2026

I'm bullish on Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker having a big game on Saturday night. But that big game doesn't have to come at the expense of running back Caleb Hawkins, who's been exceptional in the past four games.

What I'm wondering is if Hawkins can keep up this pace? He had more than 200 yards of total offense and scored four touchdowns against Kansas State last week. In his last four games he has more than 900 total yards and eight total touchdowns. He's already rushed for more than 1,000 yards and already has more receptions than he did a year ago at North Texas.

If he keeps his pace up there's a chance he could be among the top 20 rushers in Oklahoma State history by the end of the season and his first season in Stillwater isn’t even done.

Even with my belief that Mestemaker is going to have a big game, that means Hawkins should have a big night as a pass-catcher. No one has really been able to slow Hawkins down as a receiver in the last month and he could have 10 receptions in this game, especially if the Red Raiders secondary is able to lock down the Cowboys receivers.

I'm interested to see if Hawkins’ path to a potential Doak Walker Award continues.

The Thomas Castellanos Effect

I thought Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire faced one of the more difficult decisions of his tenure a couple of weeks ago when he had to pivot away from quarterback Will Hammond and move Thomas Castellanos into the starting lineup at quarterback.

I think it was necessary. The offense just wasn't humming with Hammond, and it was worth giving Castellanos the keys. Well, he's been terrific.

He's rushed for at least 100 yards in his first two starts and he threw for five touchdown passes against West Virginia last week. He's changed the dynamic of that offense and given the Red Raiders a second quality rushing weapon to go along with J’Koby Williams. I'm not sure where the other running back, Cameron Dickey, fits in right now. But I could see him being a bigger option on Saturday.

Castellanos is experienced. He got plenty of reps at Florida State (and Boston College and UCF — he’s been around). He's played in big games. These sorts of situations don't faze him. As he proved last week against West Virginia, he's good in a shootout.

What I'm interested in is whether Oklahoma State's defense can build on what they did last week against Kansas State and slow Castellanos down enough to have an impact. Note that I didn’t say stop him — just slow him down enough to lessen his impact. That requires setting the edge to contain his run and to keep him in the pocket on passing downs. He’s much better than the quarterbacks OSU faced last week. I expect Castellanos to remind the Cowboys of that early. What happens after that will help decide the game.

Staying in the Big 12 Race

This is the most pivotal weekend of the Big 12 race. Entering the game Utah is undefeated and appears to be a lock to get to the Big 12 championship game. The Utes can even afford a loss. Texas Tech controls its own destiny with just one league loss. Win out and the Red Raiders are in.

Oklahoma State is among a clump of five teams that have two losses. As long as any of those two loss teams keep winning, they have a chance, albeit slight, to get to the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma State can have a huge impact on the race by beating Texas Tech on Saturday. It would give the Cowboys a valuable tiebreaker over the Red Raiders — but it still wouldn't be enough.

Baylor goes to BYU to play the Cougars. Both are two-loss teams, and one will essentially be eliminated with two games left. Arizona hosts Utah and that's a win-or-go-home game for the Wildcats, who also have two league losses. Plus, on Friday, Houston goes to Colorado to face the Buffaloes and while I have little faith that the Buffs will win that game, one never knows. And Oklahoma State NEEDS Houston to lose another game because of the loss to Houston earlier this season.

By the time the Cowboys and the Red Raiders take the field on Saturday night, they'll know where the rest of the conference stands. And they'll know what they're playing for. Which one can handle the expectations? I’m interested in seeing who can.