MILWAUKEE — This much we know about the 122nd World Series: a franchise is going to win its first title. The Brewers have come the closest to winning a title without winning one (one victory away in 1982). The Rays are next (two wins in 2020). The rest of this series? Prepare to be surprised.

Expect low-scoring, tight ballgames that are decided on the margins. The postseason batting average is .214. Teams that score a fourth run are 24–3, a .889 winning percentage that is the second best of the wild-card era. Eight games have been won without a home run, already surpassing every postseason from 2015–23.

The Brewers and Rays rank among the top three teams in the regular season in batting average, opposite-field hitting, ground ball hitting, singles, bunt hits and stolen base attempts, all strategies the Three-True Outcome game of overindulgent analytics tried to kill. The threat of a stolen base, a bunt or (gulp!) a hit-and-run are back in the World Series, as welcome and thrilling as a MacGuffin.

It makes for taut baseball that can swing at any moment. At least on paper, here are the nine most key factors that could decide who wins their first title.

1. Tampa Bay’s changeups vs. Milwaukee’s patience

Ninety percent of the Rays’ pitches his postseason have been fastballs and changeups. Ninety percent!

Their changeup usage is an absurd 26.3%, up from 25.5% in the regular season. With the Rays showcasing so many changeups and almost no spin, we’ve never seen any strategy close to this in the postseason in the pitch tracking era (since 2008).

Most of Tampa Bay’s changeups are not strikes. It throws 59% of its changeups out of the strike zone. Chase it at your own peril. Hitters are 4-for-34 against the Rays’ out of zone changeups.

Can Milwaukee avoid chasing Tampa Bay’s barrage of strike-to-ball changeups? No team is better equipped. The Brewers led the majors in lowest chase percentage (26.9%).

2. Milwaukee’s velocity vs. Tampa Bay’s bats

The Brewers are the hardest throwing team in postseason history, with an average fastball velocity of 97.6 mph.

This could be a problem for the Rays. Tampa Bay was 17th this regular season vs. 97+ mph (.217). This postseason against that kind of velocity they are hitting .105 (4-for-38).

3. Miz vs. the world

Jacob Misiorowski is due for a signature game.

The Brewers’ ace was the best pitcher in baseball this year. His superpowers have been less awesome this postseason. As I’ve chronicled, the induced vertical break, spin rate and whiff rate on his fastball are down, but not his velocity. Foul balls, not extra-base hits, are flummoxing him. And in the Padres and Dodgers, he saw two of the eight best hitting teams against 97+ mph.

Misiorowski is well rested coming into Game 1. The Brewers are 20–3 with Miz on the mound since May 14, including 11–0 since August 3. They are 20–6 when he starts at home. And the Brewers believe his fastball plays better at home than on the road:

Misiorowski Fastball, 2026

Something to watch for: the fastest recorded pitch in World Series history was a 103.2-mph heater by Aroldis Chapman of the Cubs in 2016 World Series Game 2. Misiorowski already has thrown seven pitches faster than that this postseason.

4. Jackson Chourio’s plate discipline

Yes, Chourio has had some gargantuan hits this postseason. And he has smoked seven outs this postseason at an exit velocity of 100 mph or higher, tied with Chase DeLauter for the most such scalded outs. And he is fit for big moments with his quiet lower half, fast hands and cool demeanor.

In short, he stands as the biggest potential difference maker for Milwaukee. But he must tighten up his plate discipline. Chourio is chasing a whopping 45.9% of pitches out of the zone, up from 33.8% during the regular season. Until he corrects that tendency, and because Tampa Bay circles his name on the lineup card, the Rays will try to get him to chase.

5. Junior Caminero’s plate coverage

He is the piece the Brewers want to take off the board. The Brewers will try to let anybody else in the Tampa Bay lineup beat them except Caminero. Here’s the problem with trying to pitch around Caminero: he has the best plate coverage in the sport. Caminero has hit 12 homers on pitches out of the zone, the most by any hitter in the past nine seasons. They have resulted from five different pitch types.

In a key spot where they must pitch to Caminero, Brewers manager Pat Murphy will put right-handed reliever Abner Uribe on Caminero. They have seen each once: a six-pitch walk March 31 when Caminero did not swing.

It’s a fascinating power vs. power matchup. Against power sinkers (97+ mph), Caminero hits .345 and slugs .552.

6. William Contreras vs. the Tampa Bay running game

Both teams use the stolen base as a big part of their winning. The Brewers are 40–10 this year when they steal two bases. The Rays are 36–12.

Contreras, the Milwaukee catcher, has raised his game on both sides of the ball. He is blocking and throwing better than he did in the regular season.

Keep this in mind: the Rays love to run early in counts. They are 11-for-11 in stolen base attempts this postseason with every attempt coming in the first, second or third pitch of an at-bat. Only four times did they steal when the batter was ahead of the count.

7. Milwaukee’s left-handed spin

The Dodgers were the sixth best hitting team against left-handed breaking pitches this regular season. But in the NLCS, they buckled under the spin from Milwaukee lefties Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, JoJo Romero, Robert Gasser and Shane Drohan. Los Angeles went 0-for-22 against 91 breaking pitches from the Brewers’ lefties.

If the Rays are going to dent the Milwaukee pen (one earned run allowed in eight postseason games) they must solve left-handed spin.

8. Home field advantage

It has not been a factor in the World Series recently. Home teams are 12–17 in the World Series since 2021. Weird, right?

But this year the venue seems to matter. We get the extra energy of two teams looking for their first World Series title and the two best home teams in baseball. The Brewers are 59–26 at home, including 20–4 in their last 24.

Visiting starters at American Family Field are 0–11 in their past 19 starts. No starter has beaten the Brewers in Milwaukee since Seattle’s Logan Gilbert on Aug. 19.

The Rays are 57–27 at home, where they hit more home runs and slug better. 

9. The ABS Factor

The first World Series with ball/strike challenges will have a moment or two—and maybe even a challenge from the Rays.

Tampa Bay has seen more erroneous strike calls against its hitters than any team this postseason: 23 of them. And yet its hitters have not challenged any pitch this postseason. On defense, Tampa Bay is 9-for-13 with challenges.

The Rays average only 1.44 challenges per game. The Brewers are much more active with an average of 3.38. Milwaukee is 4-for-7 on hitters’ challenges and 12-for-20 on defensive challenges, all by Contreras.