Manchester City should cruise through to a knockout place in the Champions League but a top-eight spot is difficult

The Champions League is now into its third season since the first phase of the competition was ripped up and revamped. Rather than eight groups of four teams that all play six times, it is now a 36-team giant league table where everyone plays four opponents at home and a different four away.

Two years is too small of a sample size for Enzo Maresca to know for certain exactly what Manchester City need to do to qualify, yet already some trends have emerged. And while the competition is commonly seen as having less jeopardy now, the race for a top-eight place means more effort is required than was used to in the old phase.

A top-24 finish will guarantee City a place in the play-offs, and that bit should not be difficult to achieve. In the 2024/25 season there was only one team that accrued 11 points and did not qualify, while last season nine points was enough for Bodo/Glimt and Benfica to sneak in.

A mantra of winning your home games still resonates from the old format, and while City lost their first to PSG last week they have three more that could add to their victory in Porto in their opening game. Reaching the top-24 should not be a problem.

For English teams though, making the top eight is vital to avoid the extra congestion that comes with a play-off. The new format already means two extra games in January when there are FA Cup rounds and potentially a Carabao Cup semi-final, and another two games that a play-off would bring bleeds into an already-packed calendar.

In the last two seasons, 16 points has been the magic number required to make the top eight and book a place direct in the last-16. That has to be the aim this season, where anyone who misses out with that number could consider themselves unlucky.

There aren't many ways of reaching this number: four wins and four draws would do it but that is out of the window already for City with the PSG defeat. The most common route is five wins, a draw, and two defeats out of eight fixtures.

Having already beaten Porto, City will look to win their home games against AEK Athens this month, Napoli next month, and then Sporting in January. That leaves them with one win and one draw needed from trips to Leipzig, Barcelona, and Lens.

That feels manageable, and it is possible that City could get even better results and avoid defeat for the rest of the group phase. There are more advantages given to a top-four finish, which needed 19 points in 2024 and 17 last year.

At the same time though, one unexpected slip - as happened to City last year at home to Leverkusen - can leave a team scrambling. City should beat AEK on Tuesday whether Erling Haaland plays or not, but one defeat has already limited their margin for error in a format where nobody wants to be playing catch-up and having to rely on the results of other teams.

Losing to PSG should not derail City's Champions League campaign, but it is harder to stay on track than it used to be.