Tarik Skubal and the Los Angeles Dodgers were swept out of the NLCS by the 103-win Milwaukee Brewers, a refreshing change of pace after two years of Dodgers dominance — and a helpful reminder to the MLB owners that payroll alone does not determine winning. It also leaves Skubal with a more difficult decision in free agency than many expected.

The Dodgers will not re-sign Skubal before the lockout in December, as there's simply too much risk without knowing how the salary cap will function come 2027. Really regardless of how MLB's labor dispute plays out, however, Los Angeles will hope to retain Skubal, who is still rightly regarded as the most bankable ace in baseball. The question is: Are the Dodgers the favorites for his services? Let's rank all realistic suitors, from least to most realistic.

8. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are desperate and the Phillies typically spend money. Not necessarily as liberally as fans would like, but it's not impossible to imagine Dave Dombrowski — with the World Series window closing rapidly on this aging core — deciding that Skubal is worth an all-in push.

It would give Philadelphia the most talented rotation in MLB between Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola, four of whom could compete for NL Cy Young next season. There's also Andrew Painter, a former top prospect who came into his own down the stretch and delivered big outs in the postseason, to provide depth.

The Phillies probably have enough money wrapped up in that rotation (and in Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner) to be turned off of paying Skubal top dollar, but it's a fun thought for a team hoping to lean even more on run prevention moving forward.

7. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox wielded one of the deepest and most reliable rotations in MLB last season; that was with top ace Garrett Crochet on the IL. Upon Crochet's return, Boston will have a compelling blend of experience (Crochet, Ranger Suárez) and emerging youth (Payton Tolle, Jake Bennett) to throw at their opponents.

Then again, they know the toll injuries can take, and Sonny Gray — probably their best regular season starter this past season — is now a free agent. The Red Sox could simply line up a new contract for Gray and be content, but why not aim higher? Skubal has proven remarkably durable over the years and he offers Boston a much longer window as Crochet's partner in crime. Suddenly, the Red Sox have the best one-two punch in baseball and it wouldn't be especially close.

After the Yankees lit them up in the Wild Card round (and after Boston's top arms couldn't pitch deep into either postseason game), there's pressure for a big swing.

6. Chicago Cubs

There's no doubting the Cubs' ability to generate offense, but the rotation has been a sore spot for years now. Jed Hoyer has shown a great appetite for spending in free agency of late; the Alex Bregman signing was a real flex. That said, Chicago needs to allocate more resources toward pitching. The Edward Cabrera trade went belly up. Shōta Imanaga is a free agent now, as are trade deadline pickups Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes.

Chicago will get help internally with both Cade Horton and Justin Steele returning from season-long elbow injuries; Ben Brown, who finally broke out in 2026, should also be back in the mix. Beyond them, however, it's pretty grim. Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad can eat innings in the regular season, but neither has proven able to pitch deep in October — at least not consistently.

Skubal would deliver Chicago the frontline ace it has long lacked, with a solid scaffolding of talent behind him. The Cubs would be much better positioned to challenge Milwaukee in the division and potentially emerge from a crowded National League field.

5. Detroit Tigers

Skubal has made it clear he would've spent his entire career in Detroit if it was up to him. All the Tigers need to do is come through with a competitive offer. While last year's surprise Framber Valdez signing was a positive indication of the front office's competitive intent, there's a reason no Skubal extension ever came to fruition — or even remotely close.

A client of Scott Boras, Skubal was never inclined to sign an extension. But the Tigers' offers weren't even in the parking lot, much less the ballpark. Detroit will need to scale up its ambition significantly if it wants to lure Skubal back to the midwest.

All that said, Skubal has an affection for Detroit that's worth mentioning. The Tigers also desperately need a frontline ace in Skubal's mold. Young bucks like Troy Melton, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe and River Ryan are very talented, but the Tigers don't really have an established vet besides Valdez, who was a mess last season.

4. New York Yankees

The Yankees tend to flex their muscles in free agency, although with diminishing returns in recent years. New York is no longer the most lucrative destination for a lot of A-tier stars. Juan Soto a couple years ago, Kyle Tucker last winter; the Yankees are getting outbid pretty consistently these days. That has not stopped New York from stockpiling stars, though, especially in the rotation.

It would require Hal Steinbrenner and the front office to basically sign off on a blank check, but the Yankees' ALDS loss to the Rays was a sobering defeat. There are cracks in the foundation. Many of those cracks are injury-related and concentrated in the lineup; Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón is as strong a four-man gauntlet as any rotation in MLB. The Yankees also have Ryan Weathers, Will Warren and top prospects like Elmer Rodríguez and Carlos Lagrange for depth.

Still, the Yankees know the importance of depth, especially as their non-Schlittler core ages and becomes more injury-prone. Skubal provides stability and instantly lends credibility to any postseason aspirations. Schlittler-Skubal becomes the most fearsome pitching duo in baseball. Never say never.

3. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have steadily become the most aggressive front office in the American League. After finishing runner-up in the Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, Toronto extended Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at a $500 million price point and signed Dylan Cease in the early days of free agency last winter. A disappointing season should not preclude Toronto from maintaining its all-in approach; if anything, it's more motivation for the Blue Jays to stack talent. This team was in the World Series a year ago.

Toronto is a great market, with a vibrant local culture and an entire country behind the Blue Jays. That ought to appeal to the vanity of a star like Skubal, who would team up with the projected AL Cy Young runner-up in Cease. The Jays also made a savvy trade for José Soriano at the deadline, adding another premium arm in his prime. Trey Yesavage, once healthy, could resume his ascent to stardom. The talent is there.

Skubal solidifies Toronto as a legitimate World Series contender coming into 2027. Moreover, the Jays have a lot of money coming off the books, which should free up the front office to spend recklessly where it counts. Toronto is always the "dark horse" in these top-dollar bidding wars, but ruling out the Blue Jays would be foolish.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

It's impossible to rule out the incumbents. Los Angeles made the Skubal trade in part because of their deep farm system — and in part because it set the stage for a potential long-term partnership. There's a reason small-market front offices were unwilling to match L.A.'s outgoing package (see: Brewers). The Dodgers could afford to trade two of the 50ish best prospects in baseball because the team can feel reasonably good about both competing for a World Series this season (oh well) and re-signing Skubal when he hits the open market.

An NLCS loss does complicate the situation somewhat, not to mention the unknowability of upcoming labor disputes. The Dodgers' loss was a direct result of investing hundreds of millions of dollars in stars who are beginning to decline. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell are all on the wrong side of 30; Tucker will join that list next season. Los Angeles will endure more and more diminishing returns.

That said, nothing (besides a strict salary cap) can really stop the Dodgers from compensating for declining stars by signing more expensive stars, even if it leaves the cap sheet in utter chaos five years from now. That has been L.A.'s strategy to date; it was part of the logic behind the Skubal trade. The Dodgers still arguably represent Skubal's best chance to win a World Series, which will no doubt be part of the calculus if another team can't dramatically outspend them.

1. New York Mets

If any team can blow L.A.'s offer out of the water, it's the Mets. Steve Cohen is baseball's richest owner and New York has consistently tossed its hat in the ring for MLB's premium free agents. Juan Soto's $765 million contract set a new record; Skubal very well could set a record for pitchers.

The Mets are coming off of a last-place season, too, which only fuels anxiety in the fan base. It should also fuel aggression in the front office. David Stearns is under pressure to prove that he has what it takes to win in New York. Skubal would join an emerging ace in Nolan McLean, plus other whippersnappers like Zac Thornton and Jonah Tong. The Mets need depth besides, as Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea look more like bullpen arms these days. New York, however, is the one non-Dodgers team with enough money to sign Skubal and pursue other targets.

If the Dodgers get spooked by the shadow of their own payroll, which is more likely than ever, the Mets are the logical team we can expect to swoop in and win the Skubal bidding war outright.